Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
240 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Thunderstorm potential remains the main concern through tonight.
A cluster of elevated thunderstorms developed over south central
Missouri this morning, associated with strong theta-e advection in
the 925 to 850 mb layer. This cluster has persisted into the mid
afternoon hours as it crosses the Mississippi River. The storms
are likely becoming surface based as the intensity has ticked up
and convective inhibition has been eliminated in the latest spc
mesoanalysis. These storms will continue moving northeast through
late this afternoon into an area of weaker instability and
marginal shear. The more organized severe weather potential is to
our west, where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for
southwest Missouri.

Isolated severe storms over southwest Missouri as of 19z are
forecast to increase in coverage and intensity as diurnal heating
raises mixed layer capes to between 2000 and 3000 j/kg. The storms
are developing near a cold front, which will track eastward across
our region tonight. Based on 12z href data, the storms over sw
Missouri are likely to grow upscale into broken lines or clusters
as they reach the Current River area of southeast Missouri around
22z-00z. Large hail potential will exist given mid-level lapse
rates approaching 8 C/km. Shear is not particularly strong
compared to other events over the past couple months, however it
is sufficient for organized severe storms. The latest rap model
run indicates 0 to 6 km shear around 35 kt as the storms move
through, with the higher values generally lagging behind the
storms tonight. The 12z href does indicate an increase in low
level winds tonight, up to around 35 kt at 850 mb this evening
across the region. The strengthening low level flow could be
sufficient for an isolated tornado or two. 12z href data shows 0
to 1 km helicity peaking early this evening between 100 and 200
this evening near the Mississippi River.

As the cold front moves east tonight, the storms will progress
eastward into a more hostile environment over sw Indiana and the
Pennyrile region of west Kentucky. The severe weather potential
will wane after 03z (10 pm), when instability is forecast to
diminish substantially with loss of daytime heating.

Gusty west winds and much cooler temps will be the main story on
Sunday. Steep low-level lapse rates and lingering moisture will
promote widespread low clouds on Sunday. There may even be some
instabilty sprinkles or showers in southwest Indiana and adjacent
areas. Highs will be in the 50s, except reaching the lower 60s
where skies clear out in the downslope areas of the Ozark
foothills.

A gradual clearing trend will occur from southwest to northeast on
Sunday night. Winds will remain at least 10 mph overnight, which
will inhibit radiational cooling to prevent frost potential. Lows
will be in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

The long term portion of the forecast period will begin with the
region under broad cyclonic flow at the mid-levels, with a longwave
trough positioned across across the northern Great Lakes. Strong
west-northwest surface flow with gusts of 30-35 mph will advect a
very dry airmass into the region on Monday. Combined with high
temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s, minumum RH values will be 20
to 25% across the forecast area. With short fuels remaining fairly
dry, elevated fire weather conditions will be a concern. Will
include a mention of elevated fire weather conditions in the HWO for
Monday.

Tuesday into Wednesday will see the region come under the influence
of mainly zonal mid-level flow. This will bring a warming trend in
temperatures along with increasing dew point temperatures as
southerly flow surface increases. High temperatures on Tuesday will
reach the lower to middle 70s...followed by values in the middle to
upper 70s on Wednesday. A passing ripple in the zonal flow may kick
off a few light showers Wednesday afternoon, but most locations will
remain dry.

Our next widespread rainmaker will arrive Thursday into Friday in
the form of an approaching cold front. This front will be associate
with yet another dynamic surface low that will develop on the lee
side of the Rockies, then move northeast into the Great Lakes
region. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s
Thursday. Dew point temperatures will creep into the upper 50s to
lower 60s across southeast MO Thursday afternoon. Combined with the
dynamic front, this could be enough to support strong to severe
thunderstorm develop Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. SPC has
this are outlooked under a slight risk in its Day 6 Outlook. The
PoPs will continue into Friday as the front progresses through the
region. As it typical with the NBM, it keeps the mentionable PoPs
lingering through much of the day Friday due to timing differences.
Suspect that we'll be able to tighten up the ending time of the rain
as the event approaches. High temperatures Friday will range from
the middle 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

A round of thunderstorms is possible this afternoon, associated with
warmer and more moist air moving into the region. These storms were
over se Missouri at 17z, progressing east-northeast. These storms
will be accompanied by locally heavy rain and brief mvfr to ifr
vsbys. The storms may not reach sw Indiana and nw Kentucky, so the
kevv/kowb tafs will be dry this afternoon. Otherwise, expect gusty
south winds up to 20kt this afternoon with vfr conditions.

A cold front will move east across the region tonight, preceded by a
potentially stronger round of thunderstorms. A short period of ifr
conditions will be included in the kpah/kcgi/kmvn tafs between 00z
and 06z. These storms will likely contain gusty winds. The storms
should weaken by the time they reach sw Indiana and nw Kentucky. The
tafs will contain some mvfr conditions there.

Following the frontal passage, winds will become gusty from the
west. Widespread mvfr cigs will arrive behind the front and continue
through the morning Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DWS
AVIATION...MY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
435 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-161000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
435 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 /535 AM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The chance of strong to severe storms is greatest this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary hazards, though
isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The best chance is in
southeast Missouri and adjacent parts of southern Illinois and
western Kentucky. Gusty winds, hail, lightning, and locally heavy
rain with potential for flooding will also be hazards with
any thunderstorms across the entire region through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Gusty winds 30 to 35 mph are forecast Sunday, and thunderstorms
return to the forecast Thursday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation later today is expected.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
228 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     HAIL             OLMSTED                 37.18N 89.08W
04/15/2023  E0.70 INCH       PULASKI            IL   PUBLIC

            PEZ TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN OLMSTED.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             OLMSTED                 37.18N 89.08W
04/15/2023  E1.00 INCH       PULASKI            IL   PUBLIC

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     TSTM WND GST     LA CENTER               37.07N 88.97W
04/15/2023  E50 MPH          BALLARD            KY   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL ALSO OCCURRING.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             ROUND KNOB              37.25N 88.74W
04/15/2023  E0.88 INCH       MASSAC             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL DUSTED THE GROUND.
            ALSO WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

&&

DWS