Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1042 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Scattered heat of day pops are to be watched, particularly over
the Ozarks, where some is now occurring, not dissimilar to
yesterday. A marginal risk of severe still exists for the
approaching front from the north, coming in later tonight. Will
have to keep watch there for outflow initiated storms this evening
and then the boundary itself later tonight into tmrw. It offers
the best chance of pcpn occurring overall, and there will be at
least a small chance of a strong/svr storm along it until its
passage completes sometime later tmrw into tmrw night (the models
show some fuzz on this, esp from day-to-day). That hedge factor on
the front's passage will cause us to punt on another day of a
heat headline tmrw. There has been a consistent signal that it may
be warranted, somewhere across the south, but also a consistently
inconsistent signal on boundary placement/exact passage, and
subsequent pop/cloud impacts on temps/HI's. Triple digits is
still possible in our south tmrw pm, but as to the excessive heat
warning, the forecast collaborative consensus was to let the
headline expire and hopefully we can hone in on the unknowns a
little better closer in time.

Late this weekend, we'll see our new air mass begin its more
earnest takeover push. We'll transition from these insufferable
mid and upper 90s highs with dew points pushing 80 every day in
too many places, to highs in the lower and middle 80s and dew
points back down to what will be relative comfort in the mid-upper
60s Sunday. As this occurs, what are a sliver of lingering pops
in our south/west finally expire.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

The transition to a drier, cooler, spectacularly less humid air
mass will come full term next week. Highs will be in the lower half
of the 80s (some upper 70s still in there too), and start of week
dew points in the lower 60s dip further still, to the 50s, for the
mid-latter portion of the week. Add in a daily breeze that can
actually be felt, with some northerly component all but Friday, and
you have a picture perfect and much welcome ending to the brutally
oppressive heat we are currently enduring. One interesting note of
caution is the potential for some heat/humidity to resurge, whether
via the return this direction of the ridge, or near proximity of
tropically connected influence, but that's getting toward the end
of/just beyond the purview of this package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Main focus of convection this evening has remained north of the
CWA, over central IL and central IN. There is some potential that
these storms drift southeast enough to brush near the EVV TAF
site, but it doesn't appear likely at this time. A frontal
boundary will sag through the area overnight with a few more
showers or storms possible, but latest trends have been favoring
drier conditions. The next best chance of showers and storms will
be Saturday afternoon into early evening. Continued the VCSH
in all the TAF sites with a low confidence in convective evolution
tomorrow afternoon into early Saturday evening. Pulled back on
the fog potential overnight with a little bit more of a breeze
tonight compared to the previous few nights.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ075-076-
     080>094.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ077-078.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Saturday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>017-
     021-022.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KYZ018>020.

&&

AVIATION...KC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
227 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
227 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 /327 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Dangerous heat and humidity continues, with heat indices peaking
in the 110 to 120 range. Isolated thunderstorms offer the only
potential relief. Some storms could be strong with lightning,
heavy rain, and gusty winds the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The heat index may approach or exceed the triple digits Saturday
afternoon. A storm chance lingers through the weekend, and this
includes a small chance of a strong storm Saturday, with
lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds the main hazards, should
one occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should stay tuned to the latest forecasts and updates.

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