Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
548 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Primary concern in the short term resides with ongoing severe
thunderstorm chances that continue into today. We many not be in the
clear in our Pennyrile counties of west Kentucky until closer to 3
PM. Much colder air will filter into the region later today and it
will feel very much like winter come tomorrow morning!

Convection has really blossomed over the past several hours and has
turned rather messy. Still primarily a hail threat with this
activity through around 10z, but also have a concern for some
flooding issues developing in areas that see training convection.
Recent HRRR runs show swaths of 2-3+" possible. The moisture
transport into our region is impressive early this morning with
surface dewpoints into the mid 60s along and just south of our cwa
border. The highest February dewpoint on record at KPAH is 65
degrees and may be in jeopardy today. Some weak surface CAPE has
attempted to get into our southern counties, but this is still
primarily elevated instability we are dealing with. It appears we
will have a greater chance at sfc CAPE being realized across
southern portions of southeast Missouri after 10z and translate east
into west KY a few hours later. This occurs as the surface low now
over northwest Arkansas lifts northeastward into southeast Missouri.
The low eventually moves across southern Illinois and into Indiana
through the day.

Instability is expected to increase through the morning into early
afternoon, mainly across west Kentucky. The highest SRH values
decrease with time. However, the low level winds of 40-45 kts remain
and mid level winds begin to increase toward midday as the 500mb
trough moves closer. All severe hazards appear in play, although
there remains uncertainty in overall storm evolution behind this
early morning activity. The severe threat likely ends in our eastern
counties by 3 PM with any lingering showers exiting by 6 PM.

There will be quite a temperature gradient today with highs barely
reaching much above 50 in Perryville/Mt Vernon, IL areas. Meanwhile
most of west Kentucky stands a good chance at reaching 70.
Temperatures will be falling by mid to late afternoon and everywhere
will be much colder by early evening. Northwest winds will also pick
up behind the front with gusts of 25-30 mph. The gusty winds
continue into tomorrow morning, which produces wind chills into
the teens. Clouds may be slow to depart the region on Friday
especially in the EVV Tri-state. Given this, have nudged highs
down a degree or two. Highs in the mid to upper 30s with a bit of
breeze will feel like a true shock compared to what we've been
spoiled with lately!

Surface high pressure moves overhead Friday evening and then departs
to our southeast on Saturday. After a cold night in the 20s Friday
night, southerly flow will allow a nice rebound on Saturday with
highs reaching near 50. May be rather breezy across southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois where wind gusts of 20-25 mph are
possible.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Weak mid level energy moves across the region Saturday night into
early Sunday morning. This most likely will only lead to an increase
in clouds given a lack of moisture associated with it. However, the
00z ECMWF and even it's ensemble try to generate a few sprinkles or
very light showers with it. Talking a hundredth of two, if it
happens. For now will keep forecast dry through the weekend. It will
be quite breezy on Sunday as the pressure gradient increases with
wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. This occurs as a shortwave and
associated surface low move across the upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes region.

There remains a good amount of uncertainty for next week, but an
unsettled pattern appears to be a decent bet. Best rain chances
probably will be centered Tuesday into Wednesday. However, a weak
frontal boundary moving through Sunday night into Monday may
generate some light rain, with west Kentucky appearing to have
the best chance. The boundary looks to stall out or waffle back
and forth somewhere nearby our region Tuesday into Wednesday.
Waves of energy riding along the boundary will lead to periods of
rain. Can't rule out some thunder as well, particularly if we end
up on the warm side of the boundary. Certainly could turn into a
heavy rain threat with amounts of 2+ inches possible. Just
something to monitor. There is a wide range of temperature
possibilities, particularly by Wednesday, with a 20-25 degree
spread between the NBM 25th and 75th percentile.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 541 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning will
gradually end west to east late this morning to mid afternoon.
Highest TS chances will be across west Kentucky and southwest
Indiana. Cigs will vary between low MVFR and IFR throughout the
day and vsbys will also be reduced to MVFR/IFR within the
convection. Winds will vary with the warm frontal boundary draped
across this morning, but will take on a westerly component this
afternoon and eventually northwest this evening. Sustained winds
around 15 kts and gusts up near 25 kts are expected later this
afternoon through tonight. Looks like we hang onto our MVFR cig
through the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...SP
AVIATION...SP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
311 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-170915-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
311 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 /411 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible until around mid
afternoon. Some of these storms may turn severe with damaging
winds, large hail, and maybe a brief tornado or two. There is
also a concern for some localized flooding developing where
training of storms occurs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports of storm damage or flooding is greatly appreciated.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
845 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SACRAMENTO              37.42N 87.27W
02/16/2023  M3.10 INCH       MCLEAN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 2 AM.

&&

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
848 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 W EVANSVILLE          37.98N 87.66W
02/16/2023  M1.50 INCH       VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL OF 1.5 INCHES SINCE 12:30AM THIS
            MORNING.

&&

BM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
856 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW MASONVILLE         37.70N 87.06W
02/16/2023                   DAVIESS            KY   PUBLIC

            FLOODING OVER ROAD , HILLBRIDGE ROAD ,
            MADISONVILLE, KY.

&&

BM