Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

-Strong to severe storms are expected to increase in coverage this
 afternoon and evening

-Storms may upscale into a line with locally enhanced damaging
 wind potential through this evening

A large MCS has formed just south of the CWA in TN from convection
that ran along the KY/TN border. This appears to be associated
with a weak mid/upper level impulse as convection behind it isn't
doing as well. The local convection and things just to the south
of the CWA have not stayed organized and are in an area of
relatively weaker deep layer flow.

Additional convection is developing over southwest and is in
better shear closer to the shortwave trough. Cloud cover from
ongoing convection has limited our heating a bit in a few areas
but LAPS and SPC mesoanalysis still show 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE
over SEMO/SRN IL and WKY with growing CAPE in SWIN behind this
mornings convection. A pretty clear gradient still exists from
about Mt. Vernon to Bowling Green, KY behind previous convection.

As the large scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching
shortwave over the next few hours expect that convection will
increase. Given the unstable environment and 30-40 kts of deep
layer shear severe storms seem pretty likely. Straight hodographs
support initially splitting cells but an upscale into a line-
segment/QLCS system appears likely. Low level shear isn't
especially favorable for mesovorticies and tornadoes but will need
to watch for any boundary interactions from previous convection
that could enhance local tornado potential.

Coverage of storms today will likely determine how this evening
plays out, as we don't get a synoptic scale clearing front
overnight. The humid and unstable airmass lags behind through
early Sunday and the GFS timing generates another round of
afternoon storms over the eastern half of the area. If we get a
more sweeping MCS I think coverage would be a bit more limited
tomorrow.

After that we get a more pronounced front late Sunday which should
lead to drier and slightly less humid conditions Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

We return to southerly return flow Tuesday and afternoon shower
and storm chances return both Tuesday and Wednesday. Shear will be
modest but some pulse afternoon convection appears likely. The
ECMWF is a little less aggressive with the QPF and has more
marginal thermodynamics.

Wednesday into Thursday both ECMWF/GFS bring a trough and
associated front to the area. Looks like another 12-24 hours of
pretty unsettled weather, although as frontal timing agreement
improves we may be able to narrow that down a little bit. Severe
weather appears possible given the instability and shear
parameters apparent on the synoptic scale.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Convection will be the main aviation hazard today. Scattered
storms are expected to become more numerous and organized later
this afternoon. Prevailing cig and visby will be VFR with light to
moderate winds but thunderstorms will obviously have lower
cig/vis and gusty winds. Have tempo groups on the most likely
windows and will refine those as the afternoon progresses. Some
convection may stick around overnight but it will be dependent on
how today's activity plays out.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ084-088-092>094.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ076-086-087-100- 109>112-114.

IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ081-082-086>088.

KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>006.

     Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ018-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...JGG
LONG TERM...JGG
AVIATION...JGG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
415 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-021000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
415 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 /515 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 9 PM CDT.
Refer to the Watch for severe storm hazards and details.

Heat indices up to 109 degrees are possible until the Heat
Advisory expires at 7 PM CDT. Refer to the advisory for further
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another round of thunderstorms is likely Sunday, especially in
the afternoon. Isolated severe storms with damaging winds and
large hail are possible.

There is a daily chance of thunderstorms Monday through Friday.
The activity is expected to be isolated Monday through Wednesday
before becoming more numerous Thursday, and then isolated again
Friday. Heavy rain and lightning will be the primary hazards, but
periods of stronger storms cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports for ongoing severe weather are appreciated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
428 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WSW Wappapello        36.92N 90.32W
07/01/2023                   Butler             MO   Law Enforcement

            Powerlines down near Lake Wappapelo.
            Spotters in the area report 50-60 mph winds.

&&

JGG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
431 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Puxico                  36.95N 90.16W
07/01/2023                   Stoddard           MO   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down into power lines, and roof and
            fascia damage to Stoddard County ambulance
            station 4 in Puxico.

&&

JGG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
441 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

MOZ109-012200-
Butler MO-
441 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Butler
County through 500 PM CDT...

At 440 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chalk Bluff Natural Area, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Butler
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southeastern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 9021 3664 9014 3662 9015 3662 9016
      3661 9016 3660 9018 3655 9018 3654 9021
      3653 9021 3652 9022 3650 9022 3650 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 218DEG 31KT 3653 9022

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ATL

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