Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
253 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Models show a surface low, currently sitting over extreme
northeast Oklahoma, moving over the PAH forecast area by 12z
Tuesday, then moving east away from our area by late Tuesday.
Isolated thunderstorms have developed along an associated warm
front across portions of southeast Missouri early this afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and become
more numerous and widespread this evening and overnight. The
highest PoPs will be across our western half of counties this
evening, and across the north half late tonight along the warm
front. As the low and associated cold front move into the PAH fa
by early Tuesday, the focus of highest PoPs will shift to our
eastern half of counties late Tuesday morning into Tuesday
afternoon. Dry conditions will return by Tuesday evening.

Precipitable water amounts in the 1.5 to 2 inch range means we
will continue to see very efficient rain makers, with very heavy
rainfall expected with thunderstorms. Isolated flooding will be
possible, especially in areas that have already received heavy
rainfall. The highest rainfall amounts through Tuesday will be
just west and north of our region, so any flood concerns should
not be widespread enough to issue any headlines for our counties
at this time.

Dry conditions will return by Tuesday evening as surface high
pressure builds southward over the Great Lakes region. Drier and
cooler air will filter into the PAH forecast area for Tuesday
night. Dew points will drop from the 60s today to the middle to
upper 50s by Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 60s
north to near 80 degrees south, then the drier air mass Wednesday
will allow temperatures to warm more efficiently into the upper
70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight will be well above normal in the
60s, then readings will drop back top more seasonable values
Tuesday night and Wednesday night in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Although there are still timing differences among the models, they
are in good agreement on the sequence of events in the long term.
Thursday will be mostly sunny and pleasant as high pressure passes
to our northeast. Highs will range from 75 to 80 with pleasant dew
points from 45 to 50. Thursday night will be cool with lows in the
50s.

Beyond that, a cold front will move southeast across our region
sometime in the Friday through Saturday time frame. The models have
not been consistent with the timing of this feature. The latest
model blend has pushed the frontal passage back to Saturday. In any
case, warmer south winds will develop ahead of the front Thursday
night or Friday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 80s with
dew points rising to near 60.

Based on the latest nbm (model blend), precip chances will increase
Friday afternoon and especially Friday night. The duration of the
southerly return flow will not be long enough for much of an air
mass recovery. Dew points are forecast to be mostly in the upper 50s
ahead of the front. Some thunder is likely, but the potential for
intense convection appears limited at this time.

Saturday depends on the timing of the front. Based on the slower
trend of the models, pops are in the likely category for parts of
the area Saturday. A morning frontal passage is forecast, which
would not allow daytime heating to destabilize the atmosphere. Highs
are forecast to be in the 70s.

Sunday through Monday are forecast to be mostly sunny and pleasant
once again. A vigorous 500 mb trough will pass to our east, leaving
our region in a dry northwest flow. Daily highs will be in the mid
to upper 70s with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Isolated to scattered showers are expected at KCGI/KPAH from
22z-01z, with TSRA possible after 01z. At KMVN/KEVV/KOWB,
isolated to scattered showers are expected after 04z, with TSRA
possible mainly after 11z. MVFR cigs at KCGI/KPAH will improve to
VFR by 22z, and all sites will be have VFR conditions through much
of tonight, with cigs dropping to MVFR and IFR late in the
TAF period. MVFR conditions will be possible with any
thunderstorms. Winds will be light and variable to northeast to
5-10kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JGG
AVIATION...RST

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
318 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-162030-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
318 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 /418 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorm chances will continue through tonight. Locally heavy
rainfall and lightning are the most likely hazards; however, an
isolated severe thunderstorm will be possible into this evening.
Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be
possible in the strongest storms through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday morning. Locally
heavy rainfall and lightning are the most likely hazards; however,
a few strong storms will be possible bin the morning over the
Pennyrile.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon into early
Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning are the most likely
hazards at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of any severe weather hazards or flooding issues
are appreciated.

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