Tornado Warning 89, NWS Norman, OK

276 
WWUS54 KOUN 160047 RRA
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
747 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

OKC085-095-160057-
/O.CAN.KOUN.TO.W.0089.000000T0000Z-230616T0115Z/
Love OK-Marshall OK-
747 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN LOVE AND CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, small hail,
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3376 9719 3390 9718 3391 9724 3386 9726
      3389 9730 3407 9718 3405 9660 3383 9671
      3383 9676 3387 9681 3385 9686 3396 9692
      3395 9699 3387 9700 3384 9704 3385 9709
      3382 9705 3380 9709 3375 9708 3372 9712
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 297DEG 28KT 3388 9692 

$$

03

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
648 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

... A DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED ...
       LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

Through Daybreak Friday: A significant severe weather threat
remains for most areas from late this afternoon through this
evening. Late morning water vapor imagery captures a compact
upper system quickly traversing the New Mexico Rockies. The
boundary layer across north Texas/eastern Caprock is already
highly unstable, with 3500-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and slowly
decreasing inhibition noted in objective analysis. An increasing
mass response is expected through the day which will contribute to
even further destabilization with time (~4000-6000 MLCAPE
expected by the early evening). Storms are expected to initiate
off the dryline from the eastern Texas panhandle into portions of
the Texas Caprock during the 3-5 PM time frame. Storms will then
quickly progress (with additional development possible) through
portions of western Oklahoma into western-north Texas in the 4-9
PM time frame. Central Oklahoma/I-35 corridor is expected to be
impacted in the 7-11 PM time frame. Storms will quickly slide into
eastern/southeastern Oklahoma in the 9 PM to 1 AM (Friday)
window. Any lingering severe activity should be clearing our
forecast area (into north Texas) by 1-2 AM Friday morning.

All hazards are on the table with any severe storm today. Early
on in the convective evolution, large to very large hail (up to
baseball- softball size) will be the primary hazard. This is
driven by the significant instability, cloud layer shear, and
steep mid-level lapse rates (>8.0 C/km) progged to develop. A
damaging wind threat will also exist with any storm, though may
peak towards central into southeast Oklahoma as upscale growth
(into clusters/lines) occurs. A few wind gusts in the 80-90 mph
range are certainly possible, especially should a rear inflow jet
materialize within a storm complex. The chance for a few tornadoes
also exists today with any dominant/sustained storm. Given the
expectation for rather high dewpoint depressions (i.e. high cloud
bases), the coverage and longevity of this threat is somewhat
uncertain. This threat may ultimately peak in the 00-03/7-10 PM
CDT time frame this evening, as surface temperatures cool (i.e.
lowering cloud bases) and at least neutral theta/moisture
advection keeps nocturnal stabilization from rapidly occurring.
Modest increases in low-level shear may occur during this time as
well, further aiding in some tornado potential.

The bottom line today, be prepared for dangerous severe weather this
afternoon through this evening across our entire forecast area. Take
time now to review your action plan for how you will respond
should you come under a warning later today. Most (to perhaps
all) convective warnings today will indicate the threat for high-
end severe weather (large to giant hail, hurricane force wind
gusts and/or tornadic potential).

Friday: A pleasant, hot and mostly dry day is expected during
daytime hours on Friday. A weak cold front is forecast to slide
through much of the CWA early on Friday as the aforementioned
shortwave pushes towards the Ozarks. Mostly clear skies and
temperatures in the mid-80s (north) to mid-90s (south) are
expected during the afternoon/evening.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Friday Night: Potential exists for low end severe weather chances
across far northern Oklahoma into early Saturday. Another rather
substantial (for mid-June) shortwave trough is expected to round
the periphery of a sub-tropical ridge late on Friday. This is
expected to instigate scattered convection across the High Plains
on Friday evening. Some of this convection may sneak into far
northern zones very late on Friday and into early Saturday
morning. A few damaging wind gusts may occur with this activity,
though for now, this threat will likely be rather localized in
time and space (as activity is forecast to weaken rather rapidly).

Saturday: Another day where impactful severe weather chances will
exist, at least for portions of the CWA. The approach of another
anomalously strong upper system, combined with a sharpening
dryline, is expected to foster the development of scattered severe
convection from the Texas Panhandle into portions of western
Oklahoma/north Texas from the late afternoon into overnight
period. Increasing deep layer wind shear should promote organized
modes (supercells and lines) that will be capable of producing all
severe hazards. Latest guidance is honing in on the potential for
a late evening into overnight organized convective line moving
through portions of the area as well. Trends in the nature of this
threat will be monitored closely over successive updates.

Early Next Week: Dry and hot surface conditions are expected to
return. Grand ensemble guidance depicts the upper flow returning to
ridging across the central CONUS. This will promote dry surface
conditions (outside of very low <10% chance of afternoon/evening
storms) and hot temperatures. Temperatures in the mid-90s to low-
100s are expected areawide.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage across parts of northwest
and west central Oklahoma. These storms will impact the WWR
terminal through about 1Z. An outflow boundary is moving across
the SPS terminal which will shift winds to the north and
northeast. Elsewhere, the thunderstorms across northwestern
Oklahoma should generally move across the PNC/SWO/OUN/OKC from
roughly 1Z through about 4Z. After the storms past surface winds
should prevail from the north and northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  84  67  90 /  70  10   0  10
Hobart OK         62  87  66  93 /  40   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  66  89  69  97 /  20   0   0  10
Gage OK           58  85  62  89 /  50   0  20  10
Ponca City OK     63  87  65  90 /  60  10  10  30
Durant OK         67  88  69  94 /  60   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
204 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
204 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe storms will develop during the afternoon and evening.
Storms will initially impact western Oklahoma and western north
Texas and will move eastward during the evening and overnight.
The stronger storms will produce hail up to the size of baseballs
and winds up to 80 mph. A few tornadoes are also possible
especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
Oklahoma and north Texas should prepare for severe weather
operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a low chance for thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma
late Friday night.

There is a medium chance for strong to severe storms Saturday
afternoon and evening.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
643 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     Hail             2 W Kamay               33.86N 98.84W
06/15/2023  E1.00 inch       Wichita            TX   Broadcast Media

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
647 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     Tornado          13 WSW Arnett           36.06N 99.99W
06/15/2023  EF1              Ellis              OK   Trained Spotter

            Tornado likely entered Ellis County as it
            was dissipating.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
656 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

OKZ040-041-046-160030-
Carter OK-Garvin OK-Murray OK-
656 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Garvin,
east central Carter and Murray Counties through 730 PM CDT...

At 656 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Davis, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sulphur, Davis, Dougherty, Lake Of The Arbuckles, and Turner Falls.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 46 and 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 9726 3452 9725 3460 9690 3459 9688
      3433 9688 3433 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 267DEG 23KT 3445 9709

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

03

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
710 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 E Waurika             34.17N 97.99W
06/15/2023  M61 MPH          Jefferson          OK   Mesonet

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
713 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NE Woodward           36.44N 99.38W
06/15/2023  M59 MPH          Woodward           OK   Mesonet

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
718 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     Tornado          5 NW Healdton           34.28N 97.56W
06/15/2023                   Jefferson          OK   Storm Chaser

            Twitter Video.

&&