Tornado Warning 73, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
620 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

There is a strong chance that the most impactful hydrologic event of
the spring gets going tonight and lasts through the rest of the
weekend. Flooding concerns will begin across central and
southeastern Oklahoma this evening before shifting to western north
Texas and southwest Oklahoma by tomorrow afternoon.

Convection will be in an upscale phase as the short term period
begins tonight south and east of I-44. The severe threat should
diminish after dark as surface-based capping increases. However, the
threat for thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue into the
overnight period, shifting slowly as cold pool propagation drives
the MCS southeastward.

Another round of storms is expected to develop across the Texas Hill
Country tonight and grow upscale into an MCS. This round of storms
may clip our western north Texas counties, but it is more likely
that the stratiform region will trail over that area toward daybreak
with several hours of steady to moderate rain. Although it is always
a fool's game to predict MCS decay, the region of storms should
either decay or depart our area by daybreak tomorrow with a brief
lull in the action.

A cutoff low will begin to approach from the south-southwest
tomorrow as the long-awaited STJ influence arrives. 500 mb flow will
increase to about 35 knots and PWATS will increase to about 1.5 to
1.7 inches, at or exceeding the daily maximum climatology for the
region for mid-May. The synoptic pattern and extreme moisture would
suggest highly efficient rainfall process with 2+ inches per hour
possible within thunderstorms.

Those storms should develop along and south of a warm front that
will return slowly northward across the area in advance of a weak
surface low along the Caprock. Deep-layer shear will only be in the
range of 25 knots, but all of that shear will be contained within
the lowest 2 kilometers. That, combined with extremely humid
boundary layers, will promote an environment favorable for tropical-
type miniature supercells, with very high low-level instability
potentially favoring the threat of short-lived, weak tornadoes.
Storm chances will be greatest near the surface low across southwest
and west central Oklahoma.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

The low pressure will begin to occlude and weaken as it lifts
tomorrow night, but the warm front will likely make it up to the
Oklahoma/Kansas border by daybreak Sunday. The threat for warm
sector convection and flooding will continue area-wide, especially
near the OK/TX panhandle border.

Medium-range guidance depicts another impulse from the southern
stream ejecting due north out of central Texas into our area Sunday
afternoon. The NAM shows a stronger frontal intrusion into our
northern forecast area Sunday afternoon, which may be the trigger
for yet another round of showers and thunderstorms. By this point,
saturated soils should be prevalent across much of the area, with
flash flood guidance dropping to the point where hydro concerns may
continue. While instability will not be as strong as it is today,
1,500 J/kg of CAPE will continue to promote redevelopment.

The front will begin to drift south again on Monday, with residual
storm chances along and southeast of I-44 once more. After that, a
dominant surface high across the central Plains should keep moisture
down for the next several days, although low storm chances will
continue. Highs will be below average for much of the long term
period.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Thunderstorms are ongoing over PNC at the moment, while others are
just west of SWO, OKC, OUN, and SPS. While they are struggling to
grow upscale like anticipated, it is still possible that a line of
storms moves south and east across these sites early tonight with
large hail and gusty winds. Another wave of showers and
thunderstorms will pass across the western half of Oklahoma and
western north Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening in advance of a
surface low. Ceilings in that area will briefly drop to MVFR, and
potentially IFR in western north Texas.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  78  63  76 /  40  70  70  80
Hobart OK         63  76  61  76 /  60  90  80  80
Wichita Falls TX  65  76  63  77 /  70  90  70  70
Gage OK           58  80  58  75 /  20  40  80  80
Ponca City OK     62  84  63  80 /  20  30  60  80
Durant OK         67  83  65  82 /  50  70  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ021>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
109 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131815-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
109 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Initial
development will likely be in central and southwest Oklahoma, with
a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Storms will grow into a
line as they move southeastward into southeast Oklahoma, with
damaging winds becoming the primary risk.

.Heavy Rain...
Slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening
may lead to areas of flash flooding. A flood watch is in effect
for western north Texas and the southern half of Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible every day from Saturday through
Thursday. On Saturday, a few strong to severe storms will be
possible with damaging winds and large hail the hazards. Flooding
will be a concern as well Saturday and Sunday, especially across
western north Texas and the southern half of Oklahoma.

.Heavy Rain...
A flood watch is in effect across western north Texas and the
southern half of Oklahoma for Saturday and Sunday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             MABELLE                 33.67N 99.13W
05/12/2023  E1.75 INCH       BAYLOR             TX   STORM CHASER

            REPORT VIA TWITTER.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             7 SE BLACKWELL          36.74N 97.20W
05/12/2023  E1.00 INCH       KAY                OK   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

JH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
702 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

OKZ008-130030-
Kay OK-
702 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Kay
County through 730 PM CDT...

At 702 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Billings, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tonkawa.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 208 and 215.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3661 9719 3659 9722 3659 9746 3672 9746
      3676 9742
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 227DEG 13KT 3662 9741

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Ware

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
722 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             4 S LOYAL               35.91N 98.12W
05/12/2023  E2.50 INCH       KINGFISHER         OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
803 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     HAIL             TONKAWA                 36.68N 97.31W
05/12/2023  E1.75 INCH       KAY                OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
804 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     HAIL             4 SW ARCHER CITY        33.55N 98.67W
05/12/2023  E1.75 INCH       ARCHER             TX   PUBLIC

&&

JH