Tornado Warning 69, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
648 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Storms are likely to be ongoing or developing near I-35 as our
overnight period begins. This convection will display a tendency to
become more outflow-dominant and upscale overnight, with a
hail/tornado threat transitioning to a wind/tornado threat. This is
likely to wane after 10:00 as instability decreases.

Tomorrow, a frontal boundary will enter the area as the upper low
and surface low occlude over northern Kansas. Boundary-layer
moisture on the south side of the front is expected to be very rich
on the warm side of the boundary, leading to MLCAPE values in excess
of 4,000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be weak, limiting updraft
organization, but large to very large hail will be possible early in
the convective cycle. As storms cluster and outflow begins to surge,
damaging wind gusts and flooding will becoming more of a concern.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

While frontal storms will decrease in coverage tomorrow evening,
showers and storms influenced by isentropic ascent will begin to
kick up across western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. This will
be influenced by a resurgent southern stream jet max that will eject
from Texas into our area. Isentropic ascent over our area, in
conjunction with nearly saturated tropospheric profiles and very
anomalously high PWATS, will increase the threat of flooding across
much of the area Saturday, particularly along and south of the
stalled front.

This low will cut off and begin to weaken on Sunday, but sufficient
moisture and the stalled front will remain in place for continued
rain and hydrologic concerns. Northwest flow aloft will push the
front southward on Monday, dropping rain chances from categorical to
a more-typical-for-May slight to chance. Highs next week will be
below average under the influence of this northwest flow and a
surface high pressure.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Storms are ongoing across central Oklahoma and northern Texas, and
will continue to move north and east through the evening. Portions
of central Oklahoma will be impacted by storms over the next two
to three hours. Erratic and gusty winds will occur near any
thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through
Friday morning and into the afternoon, before lifting to low
clouds at VFR levels. Winds will remain southerly across most of
the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  87  63  78 /  50  20  50  70
Hobart OK         56  91  60  75 /   0  10  50  80
Wichita Falls TX  66  91  64  78 /  20  40  50  90
Gage OK           52  88  56  78 /   0   0  20  40
Ponca City OK     65  87  62  83 /  70  10  40  40
Durant OK         70  85  66  83 /  50  40  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121745-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1236 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and this evening. The latest trends suggest that the greatest
potential for severe weather will occur across southwest and south
central Oklahoma. Here, large to very large hail, tornadoes, and
damaging wind gusts are possible. Another area of severe weather
appears possible across northwest Oklahoma, where large hail and
damaging winds are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible every day from Friday through
Tuesday. On Friday, some of these storms may be severe along and
southeast of I-44. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary
hazards. Flooding will become a concern beginning Friday night and
lasting through the day on Sunday, especially across western north
Texas and southern Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
651 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

TXZ090-120015-
Clay TX-
651 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Clay
County through 715 PM CDT...

At 651 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Newport, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bellevue, Newport, and Vashti.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3347 9816 3373 9798 3347 9798 3346 9814
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 223DEG 24KT 3354 9803

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Ware

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TORNADO          3 SSE TUTTLE            35.25N 97.79W
05/11/2023                   GRADY              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

AZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
834 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

OKZ019-020-026-120200-
Payne OK-Logan OK-Lincoln OK-
834 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Lincoln, east central Logan and southwestern Payne Counties through
900 PM CDT...

At 834 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Coyle, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stillwater, Perkins, Langston, Coyle, and Lake Carl Blackwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 9703 3588 9729 3616 9725 3615 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 195DEG 18KT 3593 9716

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             2 SSE NOBLE             35.11N 97.38W
05/11/2023  E1.00 INCH       CLEVELAND          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTERNETWORK REPORT.

&&

AZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1012 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     HAIL             1 N BOWLEGS             35.16N 96.67W
05/11/2023  M1.00 INCH       SEMINOLE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1014 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

OKZ031-032-042-043-048-120345-
Coal OK-Atoka OK-Pontotoc OK-Hughes OK-Seminole OK-
1014 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Coal, southeastern
Seminole, eastern Pontotoc, north central Atoka and Hughes Counties
through 1045 PM CDT...

At 1014 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northwest of Atwood to near Stonewall.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Holdenville, Coalgate, Wetumka, Allen, Stonewall, Tupelo, Francis,
Calvin, Stuart, Lamar, Sasakwa, Gerty, Horntown, Centrahoma, Yeager,
Atwood, Fittstown, Spaulding, Phillips, and Jesse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 9607 3505 9609 3447 9609 3455 9665
      3498 9657 3529 9618 3529 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 224DEG 28KT 3499 9642 3468 9651

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JT