Tornado Warning 49, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
413 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Continuing to monitor the movement of the dryline eastward through
Oklahoma and northern Texas, the ongoing fire weather conditions in
western Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas, as well as the
potential for severe weather this late afternoon and evening ahead
of the dryline. The dryline is currently positioned across
northwestern Oklahoma down through far western Oklahoma. Veering
winds throughout southwestern and northern Oklahoma will shift the
dryline further east as dry air gets advected into the region.
Meanwhile, southerly winds elsewhere continues to bring deep
moisture advection into the region, with mid to upper 60 degree
dewpoints across south central Oklahoma.

A 19Z special sounding has the cap weaker and shifting upward in
height, as well as deeper moisture arriving in the region,
indicating increasing potential for a storm or two to develop. With
the weakening elevated stability, precipitation chances have been
increased across southern and central Oklahoma. While storm coverage
is expected to remain fairly limited with the capping inversion
across the region, any storms that do develop have a decent
liklihood to be severe. Modest instability (CAPE > 2500 J/kg) as
well as shear (0-6km shear ~ 50kts) will likely result in
supercellular development, while strong cloud layer winds (~80kts)
will result in the development of large and possibly significant
hail. Strong winds will also be a concern with any storms that
develop (DCAPE > 1000 J/kg).

While low level shear will remain fairly low through the late
afternoon, there will be a window of time in the early evening with
the low level jet increasing but before prohibitive CIN develops
through the region that low level shear will increase (0-1km shear ~
30kts). This could result in an isolated tornado potential through
central Oklahoma.

Elsewhere, fire weather will continue to be a concern across western
and northern Oklahoma behind the dryline with single digit relative
humidities and gusty winds. As the low pressure cyclone moves
through southern Oklahoma, the strong surface pressure gradient
will result in strong southerly surface winds will increase across
northern and central Oklahoma, with widespread Advisory criteria
winds expected to persist until Thursday morning.

A cold front will begin moving into the region Thursday morning
northwest to southeast across the region. Showers and possibly some
elevated storms may develop along this cold front. With plenty of
elevated instability (MUCAPE > 2000 J/kg) and some shear (0-6km
shear > 20kts), some hail could occur with these storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

The cold front will continue moving through Oklahoma and western
north Texas through Thursday into Thursday evening before stalling.
The timing and location of this front continues to vary between
model runs, with severe weather possible along and ahead of the
frontal boundary. These showers and storms will linger in the region
until the front shifts eastward with a second burst of cold air on
Friday.

Behind the cold front, much colder air is expected through the
weekend and into early next week. Average highs and lows will be
well below average, with a chance of some frost/freeze conditions in
far northern Oklahoma. While there is some uncertainty following
the exit of the upper level trough eastward over the weekend, the
next best chance of precipitation continues to be early next week
as moisture advection returns to the region and a series of upper
level shortwaves in a zonal flow.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Mostly VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Gusty
southerly winds will veer throughout the overnight hours as a cold
front moves into the area. There is a low potential for
thunderstorms across much of the area this afternoon through the
overnight hours. Confidence in any storm affecting a TAF site is
very low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  73  47  68 /  40  20  20  20
Hobart OK         53  75  45  70 /  10   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  64  77  49  72 /  30  10  20  10
Gage OK           44  70  42  68 /  10   0  20  10
Ponca City OK     56  74  45  69 /  40  10  10  10
Durant OK         65  79  54  70 /  10  70  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>017-021-022-033>036.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     OKZ005>008-010>013-015-017>020-024>026.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084-087.

&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
315 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-200815-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
315 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and
early evening along a dryline across portions of western and
central Oklahoma, and western north Texas. There will be a cap in
place which could hinder storm development but if storms develop,
severe weather will be possible large hail up to the size of
baseballs and wind gusts to 70 mph possible.

Additional thunderstorms could develop overnight into early
Thursday along and behind a cold front that is expected to move
across the area. Some of these elevated storms could become strong
to severe with hail the primary concern.

.Fire Weather...
Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible
behind the dryline this afternoon and early evening across
portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Thursday along and
behind the cold front that will continue to move across the area.
Small hail could be possible with the stronger storms Thursday
morning. Severe storms could then be possible Thursday afternoon
and evening in parts of southeast and south central Oklahoma with
large hail and damaging winds possible.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of
the area through Friday. After a brief break, thunderstorm chances
will return to portions of the area early next week.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to maybe near critical fire weather conditions will
remain possible Thursday into Saturday mainly across portions of
western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
812 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     HAIL             2 E NOBLE               35.14N 97.36W
04/19/2023  M2.00 INCH       CLEVELAND          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             6 S STERLING            34.67N 98.17W
04/19/2023  E2.50 INCH       COMANCHE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             4 W CENTRAL HIGH        34.61N 98.16W
04/19/2023  E1.75 INCH       COMANCHE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
846 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     TORNADO          3 W ETOWAH              35.13N 97.22W
04/19/2023                   CLEVELAND          OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
913 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     TORNADO          2 SSE PINK              35.23N 97.11W
04/19/2023                   POTTAWATOMIE       OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
929 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     TORNADO          2 N BETHEL ACRES        35.33N 97.05W
04/19/2023                   POTTAWATOMIE       OK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

JP