Tornado Warning 102, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
552 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Summary:
Strongly unstable airmass is currently in place over much of
Oklahoma along with sufficient bulk shear to generate severe
storms as early as 4 to 6 PM across north-central to northeastern
Oklahoma. Very large hail up to the size of baseballs and severe
wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph are possible late afternoon and into
tonight. The slight risk area includes areas generally along and
east of I-35, though it is possible severe storms could develop
farther to the southwest near Lawton.

Discussion:
Latest surface observation plot shows the cold front from near
Alva to Arnett and the surface trough axis / psuedo dryline
extending from near Medford to Elk City. Also observed is a weak
surface low developing over southwestern Oklahoma (near Greer
County). Ahead of the front, very warm and humid conditions
present with dewpoint temperatures in the low 70s over
central/southern Oklahoma.

Severe storms (producing very large hail) are expected to develop
by late afternoon or early evening, initially firing over north-
central / east-central Oklahoma as a mid-level wave exits the
high plains. With satellite showing a line of cumulus clouds
currently developing over Grady County, this may indicate storm
development could also occur near the trough axis/psuedo dryline
(though this is less certain). Our 19Z special balloon launch
shows a strongly unstable environment in place with MUCAPE near
4000 J/kg (which is more than what most of the models were
depicting) and strong effective bulk shear of 44 knots - both of
which give confidence to significant hail potential later this
afternoon and evening. However, also present in the sounding was a
pretty stout cap at about 850 mb, indicating some subsidence
aloft. This also indicates it could take awhile for storms to
develop. Storm motion is expected to be east-southeast at about 30
to 35 mph.

As the LLJ/WAA ramps up tonight near/east of I-44, storms could
become more widespread ahead of the cold front, though most models
suggest activity remains in Tulsa's FA. Greatest rainfall totals,
also appear to remain east, though heavy rainfall could occur in
the vicinity of Lincoln - Seminole - Hughes Counties. However,
QPF should remain below FFG, and have not issued a Flood Watch
with this package. Sfc front appears to slow and become quasi-
stationary overnight and extend from southwest OK to south of the
metro. Severe storm chances diminish after midnight and should be
very low by 2AM.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

A potent mid-level shortwave, currently moving over southern Nevada,
is prog'd to reach the panhandles by mid-day tomorrow as the
developing surface low reaches western north Texas with the quasi-
stationary front extending across south-central Oklahoma. The H850
frontal boundary will be just to the north of the surface front and
near/south of I-40 by tomorrow afternoon. Additionally, an outflow
boundary from tonight's convection is modeled to propagate into
our southeastern counties by early afternoon. Very moist low-levels
will wrap around the surface low tomorrow afternoon and yield strong
instability near the low and over south-central Oklahoma. With tall,
fat CAPE profiles and 0-6 km bulk shear increasing to 50-60 knots,
very large hail up to baseballs will be a concern along with damaging
winds up to 80 mph over parts of south-central/southeastern Oklahoma
and western north Texas. The SPC Day 2 Outlook notes this, also, with
the addition of a hatched area for significant hail added for the
aforementioned area. There is some concern of an isolated tornado
developing along the warm front late tomorrow with LFCs below 2000m.
However, 0-1km shear is prog'd to be rather low. The threat of severe
weather tomorrow should diminish after midnight.

Then, dry and seasonable conditions are forecast for next week as
an upper ridge sets up to our west.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through this
evening near the I-35 corridor. It's still a bit unclear how much
coverage will transpire, but we have included VCTS for PNC, SWO,
OKC, and OUN. Confidence is slightly too low to include TEMPOs at
this time, and amendments will be made when necessary. Some of the
storms could contain very large hail. There's also some cumulus
developing near SPS so we'll be watching that area for potential
TS. A cold front will slowly result in a wind shift from the north
and northeast tonight, although speeds should remain at or below
10 to 15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  84  63  86 /  40  20  20   0
Hobart OK         67  89  61  89 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  72  96  68  91 /  10  20  40  10
Gage OK           59  83  54  86 /  10  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     64  85  58  87 /  40  20   0   0
Durant OK         74  92  67  86 /  40  60  80  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ039>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
257 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-242000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
257 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe storms late this afternoon and
this evening across northeast Oklahoma, which includes
southeastern Payne County, eastern Lincoln County, northeastern
Pottawatomie County, and the northern portions of Seminole and
Hughes County. West and south of the enhanced risk area, there is
a slight risk of severe storms to the east of a line from
Blackwell to El Reno to Lawton, and north of a line from Lawton to
Marietta to Durant. There is also a marginal risk of severe
storms for portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
The severe storms are most likely between 4 PM Saturday to 2 AM
Sunday morning. Baseball size hail and winds of 60 to 80 mph may
occur with the strongest storms. The tornado risk is very low.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop on a cold front, initially
in northern or northeastern Oklahoma with scattered thunderstorms
continuing to develop southwest along the front through the
afternoon and evening. The storms will generally move east at 20
to 30 mph with the strongest storms moving southeast at 15 to 20
mph.

This evening and overnight, thunderstorms will be most widespread
in the east, and areas of locally heavy rain will also be possible.

.Heat...
Heat index values will reach 105 to 110 this afternoon in southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. Triple digit heat index values will reach
100 to 105 in central Oklahoma as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe storms late Sunday afternoon
through early Monday morning across north Texas and southern
Oklahoma south of a line from Vera to Electra Texas to Marlow and
Lamar Oklahoma. North of the slight risk, there is also a
marginal risk of severe storms south of a line from Quanah Texas
to Chickasha, Newcastle and Meeker Oklahoma. Baseball size hail
and 60 to 80 mph winds will be possible with the strongest storms
again on Sunday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
910 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     Hail             Gerty                   34.84N 96.29W
09/23/2023  E1.75 inch       Hughes             OK   Emergency Mngr

&&

RCB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
911 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     Hail             3 NNW Tryon             35.92N 96.98W
09/23/2023  E1.25 inch       Lincoln            OK   Public

&&

RCB

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