Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1036 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

A mid-level shortwave, currently swinging across the panhandles,
will progress eastward and push the surface low along the Red
River or into north Texas this evening. Latest surface plot shows
the surface low in the vicinity of Montague/Cooke County with the
warm front extending across northern Love, Marshal, and Bryan
Counties. Another quasi-stationary boundary appears to be located
from Tulsa to Bristow to Washington, and the H850 front draped
mid-way between I-40 and the Red River Valley. Based on the SPC
mesoanalysis page, we have an uncapped environment for the northern
half to two-thirds of Oklahoma along with MUCAPE of about 1,000-1,500
J/kg (north of I-40) and 2,000-2,500 J/kg (south of I-40) with near
3,000-3,500 J/kg near the Red River. There is plenty of effective
shear (45 to 55 knots) area-wide.

Some dynamic lift is evident on the water vapor loop over parts
of northern and central Oklahoma as the jet streak passes overhead
atop the boundaries noted previously. There also appears to be
a somewhat narrow zone of enhanced low/mid-level moisture along
the H850 front. Though chances for elevated shower/storm
development over east-central Oklahoma remain low, probabilities
are not zero in this area.

The prime location for severe storm development this afternoon
and evening is far southern Oklahoma - namely Love, Marshall, and
Bryan Counties - where strong instability and steep lapses rates
are expected near the warm front. Similarly to last evening, very
large hail (2+ inches in diameter) and damaging wind gusts are
possible for storms that develop near the Red River. Although
tornadic potential is very low due to low effective shear, there
are a few parameters that point to the possibility of an isolated
tornado that could occur should the storm stay near the boundary.
These include: high effective bulk wind difference (>50 knots),
modest effective SRH (150 to 200 m2/s2), low MLLCL's (700 to
1000m), and STP values of 1 to 3.

The severe weather threat will diminish greatly by midnight as the
upper wave exits. A surface high is forecast to reach northwest
Oklahoma, and light anticyclonic flow is expected there.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

A dry pattern sets up for the work week and nearly-flat maximum
temperature trends are expected. The next chance of rain could return
next weekend.

By tomorrow night, the main upper trough over the north-central plains
weakens while arriving over Minnesota and the low-amplitude ridge,
currently extending over southern Nevada, amplifies as it reaches the
Rockies. Meanwhile, with low-level N/NE-ly flow advecting drier air,
surface dewpoints will decrease some tomorrow. The surface ridge axis
passes central Oklahoma and winds veer to the south Monday night and
then southwesterly on Tuesday.

Over the next few days, a subtle shortwave travels along the northern
periphery of the ridge and instigates the development of a lee
trough which will lead to breezy south winds on Thursday and
Friday. A long-wave trough sets up over the western CONUS towards
the end of the week as the departing ridge reaches the Mississippi
River Valley. There are some indications of showers/storms
returning to western Oklahoma/Texas towards the end of the week.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Skies will continue to clear for all but SPS tonight. Expect some
MVFR cigs around 030 there by early Monday AM (after 09Z).
Otherwise, weak north to variable winds are expected throughout
the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  86  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         60  90  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  68  92  61  92 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           54  87  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     58  88  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         69  88  62  89 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1025 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-260330-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1025 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across far
southeastern Oklahoma overnight. Hail up to the size of golf balls
and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible with the strongest
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

No hazardous weather is expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1016 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

OKZ052-250400-
Bryan OK-
1016 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Bryan County
through 1100 PM CDT...

At 1016 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Bokchito, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bokchito, Utica, Albany, and Wade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3386 9589 3389 9593 3386 9595 3385 9598
      3387 9600 3385 9600 3384 9602 3386 9603
      3384 9604 3384 9614 3382 9615 3381 9618
      3380 9618 3381 9616 3377 9617 3375 9621
      3394 9631 3402 9614 3388 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 319DEG 13KT 3395 9615

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

03

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

OKZ052-250430-
Bryan OK-
1051 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Bryan County
through 1130 PM CDT...

At 1051 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Achille, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Durant, Colbert, Bokchito, Achille, Kemp, Hendrix, Blue, Utica,
Albany, Calera, and Wade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 9610 3383 9610 3384 9615 3382 9615
      3381 9618 3380 9618 3381 9616 3376 9617
      3376 9625 3377 9628 3375 9630 3374 9640
      3378 9643 3378 9651 3392 9655 3408 9616
      3384 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 250DEG 22KT 3387 9643

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

03

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1159 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

OKZ052-250545-
Bryan OK-
1159 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Bryan
County through 1245 AM CDT...

At 1159 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Denison, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Colbert, Achille, Kemp, Hendrix, Cartwright, Utica, and Lake Texoma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3378 9643 3377 9650 3382 9652 3382 9658
      3384 9660 3387 9661 3393 9625 3382 9616
      3381 9618 3380 9618 3381 9616 3378 9616
      3376 9618 3375 9622 3377 9629 3370 9632
      3370 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 267DEG 14KT 3380 9651

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
208 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

OKZ051-052-250745-
Marshall OK-Bryan OK-
208 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Bryan
and east central Marshall Counties through 245 AM CDT...

At 208 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southeastern Lake Texoma, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Colbert, Cartwright, eastern Lake Texoma, Calera, and Mcbride.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 9653 3382 9658 3385 9663 3388 9659
      3389 9659 3390 9663 3392 9667 3393 9667
      3397 9643 3381 9640 3381 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0708Z 261DEG 14KT 3390 9659

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale