Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
229 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

A mid-level shortwave trough will exit the area this evening.
Surface cyclogenesis will continue this evening, aiding southerly
winds across the entire area. Lingering thunderstorms, some
potentially severe, are expected to move across southern Oklahoma
this evening. With steep mid-level lapse rates giving way to
sufficient instability, and modest shear, all hazards will remain
possible. Large hail and damaging winds, however, will be the
primary threats. Storms are expected to move out of the area by
midnight tonight.

Southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Southern Plains
tomorrow as the next mid-level wave moves across the Desert
Southwest. A deepening surface low will move off to the northeast
by mid afternoon tomorrow. Surface mass response will be to push
drier air to the northeast into western Oklahoma and western north
Texas. Southwesterly winds will be on the order of 15-25 mph,
with gusts up to 35 mph, and RH values in the single digits to
lower teens. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect starting at noon
tomorrow through 10 pm Tuesday evening.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

-We will continue to see additional thunderstorms Tuesday, some
 potentially severe.

-Another high-end fire weather day is expected across much of the
 area Tuesday afternoon. For more information, please see the
 fire weather section below.

The base of the aforementioned mid-level trough will move just
upstream of the Southern Plains, with a belt of stronger flow over
the area. A surface low will deepen across the Northern Plains
during Tuesday afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will
tighten during the afternoon, which will strengthen the surface
winds. Much of the area will experience strong winds on the order
of 35-45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. A Wind Advisory has been
issued areas generally along and west of I-44 from 10 am Tuesday
until 1 am Wednesday. A dryline (and Pacific front) is forecast to
move into that same area (along and west of I-44), with much
drier air behind it. Ahead of that boundary across southern
Oklahoma and portions of east central Oklahoma, stronger southerly
flow will advect mid 60s dewpoints. Severe storms will be
possible east of the dryline where the better moisture resides. At
this time, all hazards will be possible, with large hail and
winds being the main threats.

Beyond Tuesday, cooler weather is expected with the passage of
the Pacific front. Highs will only be in the low 60s through the
end of the week. Fire weather conditions will still be elevated in
the northwest half of the area due to gusty winds and continued
low RHs in the dry post-frontal airmass. Some moisture is expected
to return by late week, so thunderstorm chances are possible,
albeit low chances. A warming trend is expected through the
weekend, with the approach weaker mid-level ridging.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

Gusty south winds will continue this afternoon with a period of
showers and thunderstorms from southwest Oklahoma into north
Texas. This activity will move east across southern Oklahoma late
this afternoon and evening. Currently expect much of the activity
to remain south of OKC/OUN taf sites, outside current activity at
those sites. May include a short tempo at those two sites.
Otherwise, expect cloud cover to decrease this evening with clear
skies overnight into the day Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

Tuesday is still shaping up to be another high-impact fire
weather day. Sustained winds are forecast to be between 35-45 mph,
with gusts up to 60 mph for areas along and west of I-44. The
trend in ERCs continue to push high percentiles eastward into
central Oklahoma. That being said, much of the area along and west
of I-44 will be between the 50th-70th percentile, and western and
northern Oklahoma along with western north Texas will be close to
the 90th percentile. Drier air that's expected to affect these
areas over the coming days will only exacerbate these fuels. Would
not be surprised to see these higher percentile ERCs continue to
spread eastward into central Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon. A
dryline/Pacific front will bring drier air eastward Tuesday with
single digit dewpoints behind the front. This drier air, combined
with strong winds and dry fuels, will foster Extreme fire
conditions for much of the area. Tuesday will need to be a day to
take fire prevention and initial attack very seriously.

Bunker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  54  84  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         48  87  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  50  89  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           46  87  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     54  86  62  86 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         58  86  65  81 /  60  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Monday for OKZ004-005-
     009>011-014>016-021-022-033>037.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 1 AM CDT Wednesday for
     OKZ004>029-033>039-044-045.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for OKZ004>029-033>039-044-045.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>089.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 1 AM CDT Wednesday for
     TXZ083>090.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...30

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