Severe Thunderstorm Warning 802, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
534 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Area of showers and thunderstorms continues to develop and gradually
move east across the fa this afternoon. This activity is expected to
continue to slowly shift east the rest of the afternoon/evening.
Some strong to severe storms will continue to be possible with this
activity with hail and heavy rain being the primary concern.

Meanwhile, water vapor shows a shortwave moving into NW OK early
this afternoon with a dryline currently in parts of far western OK
where skies have cleared some and sfc heating is occurring. CAMs
show some storms developing near the dryline late this
afternoon/evening and moving east across the area. The most likely
area for this development to occur will be in west central and
southwest OK and western north TX. This activity is expected to move
east across the fa. These storms could also become severe with large
hail and strong winds the main concerns. However, a tornado or two
also can not be ruled out, especially as the LLJ strengthens. The
potential for severe storms is expected to diminish overnight but
showers and storms will remain possible into Wednesday morning as
the shortwave continues to move across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Storms could linger over eastern parts of the fa Wednesday morning
as the previously mentioned shortwave continues to move across the
region and until the LLJ weakens. Models show shortwave ridging
trying to move into the region tomorrow afternoon/evening which
could hinder storm development after Wednesday morning, except for
maybe near a remnant outflow boundary/effective front left from the
overnight/morning convection. Models show the better chance for
storms could be Wednesday evening/night as WAA develops with most of
the activity remaining east of the fa. However, some storms could
develop westward into eastern portions of our fa, mainly E of I-35.
If these storms do occur, a few strong to severe storms may be
possible with hail and wind.

Rain chances increase and become more widespread again on Thursday.
Models show closed low continuing over the western U.S. with a speed
max heading towards the Plains. This will cause a sfc low to develop
in SE CO with a dry line extending from the low. LLJ is expected to
increase across the region Thursday afternoon/evening with
increasing moisture advection. With the approaching speed max and
strengthening LLJ, showers and storms will be possible
Thursday/Thursday night with strong to severe storms possible.
Locally heavy rain will also be a concern.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across at least parts
of the area through the weekend into early next week as the upper
low gradually begins to slowly move east and disturbances move
through the flow. There are some differences in timing of the upper
low. Models also show a cold front moving across the area over the
weekend which would be another potential focus for storm
development.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through this
evening across portions of north TX and southwestern OK. There's
also a >30% chance of storms developing northwest of OKC and then
moving southeast to near OKC/OUN ~02Z. This has been reflected in
the TAFs. The highest chances for TSRA will be near SPS and LAW
after ~01Z. Strong wind gusts will be possible there, along with
large hail, so we'll be watching for potential amendments.
Expect southeast winds tonight around 10-15 kt. The likelihood
for MVFR cigs appears high enough (> 60%) at PNC by early
Wednesday AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  88  69  86 /  50  10  10  40
Hobart OK         64  93  67  87 /  40   0  10  40
Wichita Falls TX  69  97  73  92 /  50  10  10  30
Gage OK           59  86  63  88 /  10   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     62  84  65  86 /  50  20  20  30
Durant OK         67  93  72  92 /  60  50  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
310 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-202015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
310 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and into
tonight across most of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Hail up
to the size of golf balls and 60-80 mph damaging wind gusts are
possible. Heavy rain will also be possible mainly along and east
of the I-35 corridor. Although thunderstorms may be ongoing
overnight, the severe risk should diminish toward the midnight
hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue each day Wednesday through
Monday. Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday,
Thursday and again on Saturday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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