Severe Thunderstorm Warning 718, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
556 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

The combination of extreme heat, active fire weather, and severe
potential continues across our area this evening and tomorrow. Heat
indices are clearing well into the 110s across a wide swath of our
area this afternoon, and dangerous heat conditions will persist
until this evening.

Cumulus clouds are slowly developing in the central Texas panhandle
as a pseudo-dryline mixes eastward. These may provide the impetus
for convective development across southwest Oklahoma by 5:00 p.m.
Other chances at storm development will occur this evening in
western north Texas along the dryline, and near a slowly lifting
warm front in northwest Oklahoma. The latest HRRR is only weakly
hinting at storm development, but CAMs have generally been
underconvective this week. MLCAPE values barely over 1,000 J/kg will
be markedly lower than last night, so storm longevity especially
after sunset is in question. However, DCAPE values are as high as
they have been all week - in the 1,600-2,000 J/kg range, driven by
hot, well-mixed boundary layers and dry mid-levels. Damaging wind
gusts up to 70 mph are possible with the strongest cores, as well as
lightning which will likely aid in new fire ignitions in western
north Texas.

After another uncomfortably warm overnight (most areas will fail to
get below 75), we get to run it all back tomorrow for the first day
of the weekend. Storm chances will continue tonight across much of
the area, but particularly northern and central Oklahoma. These will
linger into tomorrow morning. Red flag warnings will continue
tomorrow afternoon in western north Texas as elevated fire weather
continues. ERCs will edge back up toward the 90th percentile with
winds gusting up to about 25 mph from the south and relative
humidities dropping to about 20 percent. Meanwhile, excessive heat
warnings are in effect for most of the Red River Valley, while heat
advisories are in effect for most of central Oklahoma. Upgrades may
be required as the forecast comes more into focus, but for now it
appears mid-70s dewpoints are possible near and east of I-35.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Storm chances will increase early tomorrow night across the
northwestern part of Oklahoma as a wave rounds the subtropical ridge
into Kansas. Instability will be modest at first, but - stop me if
you've heard this before - deep, well-mixed boundary layers should
encourage forward propagation of outflow and a damaging wind
threat. These storms will likely encounter richer boundary-layer
moisture across north central Oklahoma just as the LLJ increases
to about 35- 45 knots. The threat for severe weather will likely
be maximized in this corridor early during the overnight period.
Chances for storms will continue to linger into early Sunday
morning, and will leak southward into central Oklahoma.

The best chance for widespread storms in the upcoming period looks
to be Sunday night. A powerful closed low will dip southeastward
into the Upper Midwest, bringing the northern half of our area into
30-40 knots of westerly flow. Heavy rainfall looks like the primary
hazard, especially across the northern half of Oklahoma. Severe
weather looks a bit more uncertain due lower overall instability,
but will be monitored.

After rain chances diminish on Monday afternoon, things do look to
calm down for the rest of next week. That's going to let us get hot
and humid once more.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

VFR conditions to continue.

Isolated storms will be possible this evening across west and will
include a mention for a couple of hours at CSM, otherwise chances
too low at this time. Will also keep a mention late evening and
and overnight at both PNC/SWO for some activity. Otherwise, light
south/southeast winds and mid/high clouds overnight and through
much of the day Saturday. Southwest winds will increase by mid-
morning across most sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77 101  74 100 /  20  30  20  10
Hobart OK         78 106  74 104 /  30  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  82 109  80 108 /  30  10  10   0
Gage OK           71  97  69  96 /  30  40  50  20
Ponca City OK     73  94  73  94 /  40  40  50  30
Durant OK         79 103  80 104 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     015>018-021-022.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>036-040>043.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ019-
     020-023>048-050>052.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
     OKZ037>039-044>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083-084-087.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ085-
     086-088>090.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
324 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-122030-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
324 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening over
western and northern Oklahoma...with isolated thunderstorms also
possible over western north Texas. A few storms may be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts and small hail.

.Dangerous Heat...
Excessive heat and humidity is occurring over most of Oklahoma
and western north Texas this evening. Heat index values of 105 to
115 degrees are expected.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather will combine with very fire-prone fuels to
result in the potential for problematic fire spread and behavior
this evening in western north Texas. The chance of new fires is
enhanced due to lightning that occurred with last night's storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Chances for thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. A
few strong to severe storms will be possible each day, however
widespread severe weather is not expected.

.Dangerous Heat...
Excessive heat and humidity spread northward over much of Oklahoma
and north Texas from Friday through the upcoming weekend.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather will continue across western north Texas
through the weekend.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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