Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

NEAR-TERM:

The primary near-term concern will be severe weather along and ahead
of a southward-advancing cold front this afternoon. A recent special
sounding indicates that CIN has largely been eroded with cooling
aloft allowing for moderate instability to develop. The cold front
is racing south and east per surface observations. However, high-
res guidance and obs suggest that a weak triple point low may
develop along the front, stalling its advance and locally backing
winds ahead of it. Current thinking is that ongoing convection
will continue to slowly deepen early this afternoon along the I-44
corridor as frontal forcing encroaches upon it. The strongest
cores will be capable of severe hail through midafternoon, by
which point the front will have robbed the area of moisture. A few
storms are likely to develop this afternoon in southwestern
Oklahoma. They will progress eastward throughout the day.
Initially, the main hazard will be supercells capable of large to
very large hail given strong speed shear within the cloud-bearing
layer. As the convection approaches I-35, some upscale growth into
a QLCS or semi-discrete storms is expected. Low- level shear will
ramp up toward evening, and the tornado threat is expected to be
maximized in southeastern Oklahoma.

NM

Behind the cold front, temperatures are falling. Wind gusts over
40 mph will also be possible behind the front this afternoon and
evening. The wind advisory has been expanded further east and
northeast and now goes through 6Z although the most likely area
for the strongest winds still look to be in parts of southwestern
OK and western north TX.

Colder temperatures are expected tonight with temperatures falling
into the 20s and 30s. The strong north winds and colder
temperatures behind the front will also lead to even colder wind
chills in the teens and 20s.

EM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Models show upper low in the Great Lakes region which will lead to
NW/WNW flow aloft over the region through the weekend. Disturbance
rotating around this low will send another cold front and shot of
cool air to the region Saturday but no precipitation is expected.
With the cold air moving into the region behind the cold front today
and re-enforcing shot this weekend, below average temperatures will
continue across the area through the weekend.

Models show southerly sfc winds returning to the area Sunday. Models
also show a mid-level disturbance could move across the southern
Plains early next week which might bring a chance for precip to
parts of the fa Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Models show the upper pattern continuing to shift next week with SW
flow aloft developing towards the middle of next week as an upper
low/trough sets up over the western U.S. Models show this upper
low/trough moving east next week but there are differences in
timing/path, etc which would have an impact on the timing of
precipitation and where in the fa although right now looks like it
would affect the fa around Thursday.

Temperatures are also expected to warm to at or above average
temperatures towards the middle of next week.

EM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

MVFR cigs expected mainly behind the incoming frontal boundary.
Some IFR/LIFR will briefly be seen within TSRA that will be mainly
seen along and ahead of the frontal boundary. By 21Z, expect front
to move south and east of the terminals with mainly MVFR cigs and
scattered SHRA remaining during the afternoon. As drier air
filters in with strong and gusty north winds, cigs expected to
rise after 03Z and winds will slowly decrease overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  29  50  29  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         27  51  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  34  52  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           23  50  22  46 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     26  51  24  44 /  40   0   0   0
Durant OK         34  52  34  54 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>048-050>052.

TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11

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