Severe Thunderstorm Warning 628, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

This morning, a mid-level shortwave was centered in the vicinity
of the WY/NE/CO/KS junction, per observed height falls on the 12Z
500mb RAOB chart. This feature is tracking slowly southeastward
into the central plains as a cold front pushes southward across
central Kansas. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms have
already developed along the front - extending just northeast of
Dodge City to near Salina to Lawrence. The outflow boundary, seen
on satellite/radar imagery over southwest Kansas, is estimated to
move into far northwest Oklahoma within the next few hours, would
expect thunderstorms to gradually develop westward along the front
as it propogates towards Oklahoma.

The cold front is expected to reach northern Oklahoma between
7-9PM and slowly move southward overnight with storms possibly
moving through the metro between 11PM - 1AM. The RAP and HRRR have
prog'd MLCAPE values over northern Oklahoma near 2000 to 4000
J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 25 knots currently, and shear is
forecast to increase to 40-50 knots by late evening. With
profiles showing substantial CAPE within the HGZ, large hail along
with damaging wind gusts are possible. There remains uncertainty
as to the strength of storms as they move into central Oklahoma.

We issued a Flood Watch for parts of central Oklahoma tonight as
morning models suggested 1 to 3 inches of localized rainfall in
areas that have already received 4 to 7 inches of rain within the
past 7 days.

Tomorrow is forecast to be much cooler and below-average, in fact.
Rain chances diminish by mid-morning.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

A shortwave brings a chance of showers/storms to parts of the area
Saturday night, with below-average temperatures continuing on
Sunday. The heat returns Monday through mid-week as a strong upper
ridge advances towards the south-central plains. Although heat
index values are forecast to rise into the triple-digits
(beginning Monday), the good news is that dewpoints are forecast
to be lower than recent days (think 60's). Another front then
enters our area end of the week. This upcoming week looks dry. The
next best chance of rain/storms is Thursday night.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Severe thunderstorms are ongoing just north of Woodward, and near
Ponca City. MVFR conditions are expected with storms as they are
forecast to move southward over the next few hours. Strong to
damaging wind gusts are expected with these storms. Uncertainty
remains on how far south these storms will reach before
dissipating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  86  69  89 /  70  20  30  20
Hobart OK         69  87  67  90 /  20  20  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  75  93  72  94 /  10  10  30  20
Gage OK           66  87  65  89 /  60  10  30  10
Ponca City OK     68  89  68  91 /  70  10  10  10
Durant OK         76  92  73  91 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-036>038-040>042-044.

     Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ017>020-024>026-
     028>032.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ039-
     043-045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
359 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-152100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
359 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon through late this evening across portions of northern
Oklahoma, with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms further south
late tonight into early Saturday morning near and south of the
I-40 corridor. Large hail up to the size of golf balls will be
possible before sunset across northern OK, but the main hazard
will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 to 80 mph through tonight.

.Heat...
Triple digit heat index values are expected through the early
evening across central and southern Oklahoma, and north Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Sunday, but the
risk of severe weather currently looks to be low.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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