Severe Thunderstorm Warning 521, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
206 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Thunderstorms are expected to move off the High Plains, making
their way into northwestern Oklahoma by early this morning. With
modest elevated instability and deep-layer shear, severe weather
is possible as these storms move southeastward. By the time storms
move into northwestern Oklahoma, they will most likely have grown
upshear into an MCS. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and
large hail. Heavy rainfall is also expected to accompany these
storms, with some minor flooding possible. All of northern
Oklahoma and parts of central and western Oklahoma will be
susceptible to flooding, especially with the earlier rainfall
from Thursday morning. These storms should move out of the area by
late morning. We will have to watch closely for remnant
boundaries that these storms may produce, as they could be the
focal point for additional development later in the afternoon and
evening.

As the Subtropical High remains over southwest portions of the
U.S., easterly surface flow will remain to the west. This will aid
in an upslope flow regime, which thunderstorms are forecast to
form later in the afternoon across the High Plains. These storms
could make their way into western Oklahoma later this afternoon
and evening, depending on if the environment is worked over or if
any outflow boundaries impede on moisture return across the area.
Temperatures will be interesting today, and will depend on cloud
cover, outflow boundaries, and duration of rainfall.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Aforementioned thunderstorms moving off the High Plains could be
lingering in the western zones later into the overnight hours.
Warm air advection storms across southern Kansas Friday evening
are expected to move into northern Oklahoma overnight. Again,
environmental parameters will be in place for large hail and
damaging winds with storms that move into the forecast area late
Friday into early Saturday morning.

We will continue with west-northwest flow aloft through the long
term as the Subtropical High struggles to break down. Additional
storms are possible later this weekend into early next week as we
continue this upslope flow surface regime. Fortunately,
temperatures will remain at or just below average through early
next week with numerous rounds of storms, cloud cover, and
potential outflow boundaries. By midweek, a warming trend will
begin to above normal temperatures. Now here's a downside,
dewpoints will creep up into the low 70s by mid week which will
bring heat indices back up to widespread triple digits by Tuesday
and Wednesday. 110+ heat indices are possible in western north
Texas on these days as well.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023

VFR conditions to start at all the sites, but expect to see
complex of storms move into northwest by 3 am and then translate
southeast across the area Friday morning. A period of MVFR and
possibly IFR conditions will accompany this complex. Expect to see
a lull during the afternoon hours before additional convective
development to occur to the west and north of the area and impact
most sites by the end of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  70  85  67 /  40  60  50  60
Hobart OK         96  69  90  67 /  20  40  20  40
Wichita Falls TX 100  75  97  72 /   0  30  10  30
Gage OK           93  65  81  63 /  40  60  10  60
Ponca City OK     84  67  79  63 /  90  80  50  40
Durant OK         94  75  92  72 /   0  20  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
216 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-080730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
216 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A complex of thunderstorms is expected to move into northern
Oklahoma late early this morning, which will move southeast across
portions of northern and central Oklahoma towards daybreak. The
primary hazards will be damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally
heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding.

Additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
across western and northern Oklahoma. Large hail, damaging winds,
and flash flooding are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the eastern half of
Oklahoma Saturday morning before decreasing in coverage late
morning into the early afternoon.

There is a continued chance of thunderstorms through early next
week as a series of thunderstorm complexes may affect parts of the
area during the overnight into the early morning hours. The most
likely location to be affected by any complexes will be northern
Oklahoma with lower chances with southwest extent. Any
thunderstorms with these complexes could be strong to severe.

.Heat...
Afternoon heat indices from 105 to 110 degrees are possible
across far southern Oklahoma and north Texas beginning Friday and
persisting through the middle part of the week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
252 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

OKZ004-070815-
Harper OK-
252 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Harper
County through 315 AM CDT...

At 252 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rosston, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Rosston, and Selman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 9946 3673 9945 3676 10000 3683 10001
      3694 10000 3699 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 0752Z 263DEG 48KT 3685 9993

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
355 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

OKZ004-005-010-070930-
Woodward OK-Harper OK-Woods OK-
355 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Woods,
eastern Harper and north central Woodward Counties through 430 AM
CDT...

At 355 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Selman, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Selman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 9948 3698 9950 3699 9923 3685 9913
      3664 9918
TIME...MOT...LOC 0855Z 266DEG 21KT 3687 9939

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JP