Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
530 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

A remarkable, perhaps historic storm system, is currently
approaching our forecast area. Impacts of concern through tonight:

 - Severe thunderstorm wind gusts (greater than 80 mph) as storms
   move through west/central/north Oklahoma and parts of western
   north Texas
 - Severe (post-frontal) westerly winds gusting to 60 mph
   following the line of storms
 - Significant tornadoes and significant hail produced by severe
   storms as they track across northwest, west, west-central,
   southwest Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas

The potent mid/upper-level trough is currently approaching the
four corners region, as seen on latest water vapor loop. Observations
place the warm front near or just north of I-20 near the DFW
area, though the boundary is quickly approaching the Red River
with the Waurika mesonet station reporting 68 over 58 degrees.
This trend will continue with a warm and very moist air mass
advecting into Oklahoma through the afternoon and evening hours as
the trough approaches the plains.

Supercell thunderstorms are currently developing over the western
panhandles and far southwest Kansas. Storms will continue to
develop, march east, and reach our western counties around 5-7 PM.
SBCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg are prog'd (far southwest OK and
western north TX) with low to non-existent values farther north,
there is remarkable (and highly unusual) wind shear. This along
with rapid cooling aloft will aid in development/continuation of
supercell thunderstorms across western Oklahoma through the
evening. The higher tornado and large hail risk will accompany
these storms as they move across western Oklahoma before
transitioning to more of a derecho/wind event over west-
central/southwest/central Oklahoma this evening and into tonight.
However, QLCS tornadoes cannot be ruled out as storms move through
central Oklahoma.

Strong winds will continue behind the front and into the early
morning hours on Monday. Everyone should have a safety plan in
place by now, and by this evening:

 + People located in mobile homes should urgently plan to vacate
   to nearby/permanent structures
 + Have multiple ways to receive warnings as power outages appear
   quite possible with damaging winds
 + Charge digital devices and cell phones
 + Secure or put away loose items (e.g., trash cans, trampolines,
   grills, basketball goals)

As for tomorrow, more tranquil conditions are expected with sunny
skies and highs in the 60s and 70s.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Above-average temperatures and dry conditions are expected
through Tuesday with elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions possible over western OK and western north TX. A cold
front arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday morning resulting in
somewhat cooler temperatures Wed/Thurs. There is a chance of a
rain/snow mix on Thursday for north/west Oklahoma, and central OK
Thursday night.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

IFR ceilings are hanging tough in central Oklahoma this evening
and will likely remain so until storms arrive later on. A line of
storms is expected to cross the entire area from 01z-07z, bringing
widespread strong wind gusts to the area, with many sites likely
to experience 50+ knot gusts from the west or southwest as the
line moves through. Winds will remain gusty behind the line
overnight but will slowly decrease through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  71  40  71 / 100   0   0   0
Hobart OK         40  70  37  73 / 100   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  44  72  40  77 /  90   0   0   0
Gage OK           39  68  34  69 / 100   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     46  70  39  68 / 100   0   0   0
Durant OK         47  73  42  76 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for OKZ004>013-015-018>020-
     025-026-028>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ014-016-017-
     021>024-027-033>038-044.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM CST Monday for OKZ014-016-017-
     021>024-027-033>038-044.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CST Monday for OKZ014-016-017-
     021>024-027-033>038-044.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ084-087>090.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ083-085-086.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ083-085-086.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CST Monday for TXZ083-085-086.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>