Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

From the atmosphere that brought you "June in May", we now present:
"May in June". Storms will be possible along and north of a warm
front today and tonight, but the severe threat will be modulated by
the ability of instability as temps struggle to get out of the 70s -
not something you often get to type one week from the summer
solstice around here!

Chances for storms will begin this morning as winds in the 850-700
mb layer veer around to southerly and tighten up a warm frontal zone
aloft. This will encourage unseasonably strong isentropic ascent.
There several possible ways that this could play out in convection
evolution; the 0Z HREF members mostly suggested that a powerful
complex of storms currently marching eastward across northeast New
Mexico could grow upscale into an MCS that sweeps across western and
central Oklahoma this morning, with a damaging wind and hydro
threat. Other models have suggested that the storms that develop
within this frontal zone may take on more of a nature of warm
conveyor storms that gradually become rooted in 1,000-2,000 J/kg of
CAPE at the top of the warm nose, with a hail threat. The caveat is
that the RAP and HRRR have both been trending rather dramatically
tonight toward a weaker warm front aloft. Instead of reaching
central Oklahoma and focusing storms there, this would bring the
best chance for rain to the Red River Valley this morning. Trends
will continue to be watched to see where the low-end severe and
hydro threats may materialize.

Later today, a belt of 50-70 knot westerlies aloft within the STJ
will overspread our area, tightening a triple point cyclone across
north Texas. To its east, a warm front will sharpen at the surface.
Currently model forecasts show that front ending up right along the
Red River Valley, but this will be highly dependent on the degree of
convection we see this morning. Storms will develop along and south
of the warm front this afternoon, with a risk of very large (2-4
inch) hail. The tornado risk is not particularly high, but may be
locally maximized along the front itself. The likeliest areas for
these hazards will be directly north of the Red River across south
central Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western north Texas, where
the front has about a 30 percent chance of reaching by this
afternoon.

If, as is more likely than not, our entire area remains within the
postfrontal airmass to the north, then the primary hazard today will
be for storms to develop within the continued isentropic ascent
zone amid very rich tropospheric moisture. Elevated instability
will be modest, but storms may pose a transient severe hail risk.
Storm motions will be nontrivial, but the deep moisture will pose
a risk for flooding in any areas that see multiple storms this
afternoon and evening, especially if that area coincides with
where storms occur this morning.

Highs today will be unseasonably cool as widespread cloud cover and
rain dominate across our area. In fact, record cool highs may be
threatened, particularly at Lawton where today's forecast matches
the record cold high of 75.

This evening, upslope storms across Colorado and New Mexico will try
to work into northwest Oklahoma. Given the interference that the
front will experience trying to get into this region, it is unclear
that any upscale growth will occur to bring an MCS into the area,
but the risk is at least worth monitoring. Lows will be from the mid-
60s to the south to the upper-50s to the north, with lingering rain
and storm chances across southeastern and central Oklahoma.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

One more day of unseasonably spring-like weather will occur tomorrow
as highs remain rather low, with storm chances area-wide. The focus
looks to be across east central Oklahoma during the day, although
storm interactions today and tonight will likely dictate any focuses
for convection. Severe weather is possible across southeast and
south central Oklahoma on Tuesday, with large hail being the primary
concern. Furthermore, with models showing 1-3 inches of rain falling
in this region, flooding will be a minor concern.

Things will begin to clear out as we get later into the week and
ridging starts to build in aloft. This will potentially provide us
with a reprieve from our daily 20-40 PoPS, but at the cost of
increasing high temperatures that will let many areas make their
first run at 100 of the year by the end of the week. Another trough
will be kicked up by the STJ and potentially influence our forecast
this coming weekend.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Expect to see showers and thunderstorms impact many of the TAF
sites this afternoon before chances decrease sufficiently to not
continue the mention in the forecast. MVFR ceilings develop across
much of the area overnight and may linger through 18Z. East winds
continue, generally less than 12kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  63  77  61 /  70  50  30  20
Hobart OK         74  62  78  59 /  70  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  79  66  86  64 /  60  20   0  10
Gage OK           73  58  76  56 /  60  40  20  10
Ponca City OK     77  58  81  59 /  20  40  30  20
Durant OK         77  66  84  65 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1146 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible this
afternoon. A few strong to severe storms will be possible with
strong wind gusts and large hail the main hazards, along with
heavy rainfall. Best chance for severe weather will be mainly
across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible across our entire area again on
Tuesday. The greatest potential will be across southern and
eastern Oklahoma, where large hail and gusty winds may occur.

Low thunderstorm chances will continue across parts of the area
into Sunday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
238 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

OKZ023-038-122015-
Caddo OK-Comanche OK-
238 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Comanche and southern Caddo Counties through 315 PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Boone, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elgin, Apache, Fletcher, Cyril, Meers, Lake Ellsworth, Boone, and
Stecker.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 54 and 62.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3478 9860 3490 9862 3502 9820 3478 9818
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 261DEG 37KT 3486 9852

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MDU

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