Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
159 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Airmass continues to recover this afternoon from yesterday's
convection with moist airmass spreading back into the area. Dryline
is expected to extend NE to SW across portions of the fa by late
this afternoon. CAMs are showing storms developing once again near
the dryline in SW parts of the fa late aftn/early evening then
spreading E and NE across portions of southern OK and north TX this
evening. Instability of 4000+ J/kg again today, but relatively weak
shear, will provide the potential for severe storms late
aftn/evening for parts of southern OK and north TX. Very large hail
and damaging winds will be the primary concern. The potential for
severe storms is expected to diminish late this evening/overnight.

The moist, unstable airmass will continue across portions of the fa
Monday. Models show a generally west to east frontal boundary across
portions of the fa Monday afternoon with a dryline west of the fa.
There continues to be a lack of strong synoptic scale forcing but
convergence along these boundaries, sfc heating, and a potentially
weakening cap could be sufficient for storms to develop and affect
portions of the fa. With the moist, unstable airmass over parts of
the area, severe storms could be possible again Monday with large
hail and damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

The chance for storms and potential for severe weather will continue
throughout the rest of the week. Models show southwest flow
continuing with the upper trough/low approaching the region then
lifting into the central/northern Plains the last half of the week.
The approaching upper trough/low should provide a bit more support
and shear later in the week than the early part of the week will see.

Models show the previously mentioned frontal boundary lifting north
as a warm front Tuesday. 12Z model runs have the warm front lifting
well into KS whereas some of the previous runs had the front
remaining closer to the fa. If the warm front remains near the fa
Tuesday, it could be a source for thunderstorm development Tuesday
along with a dryline that is expected to extended southward across
the eastern TX panhandles. The moist, unstable airmass will once
again bring a potential for severe storms Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

With the upper system approaching the area, the chances for
showers/storms could be a bit higher with potentially more coverage
for the later half of the week along with a continued chance for
severe storms. However, what happens the day before and the
path/timing of the upper system will have an impact on where/when
this will occur.

The hot (highs in the 90s) conditions will continue into Tuesday
before temperatures moderate a little bit with highs generally in
the 80s and maybe 70s by next weekend.

In summary, everyday this week will have a chance for storms across
at least parts of the fa. With the moist, unstable airmass remaining
in the region, the potential for severe storms will also continue.
However, what occurs the day/night before could have an impact on
the potential for storms and severe weather so continue to stay
weather aware this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Area of low stratus, responsible for some MVFR ceilings across
central into southwest OK and north TX will continue to dissipate
over the next couple of hours. Expect VFR conditions for the
remainder of the forecast period, with the one exception being SPS
early this evening with there is a chance of MVFR conditions
associated with a period of thunderstorms that may impact the
site. Otherwise, gusty southwest winds will relax some this
evening. A weak surface boundary will work south Tuesday morning
across northern Oklahoma with winds shifting to the north behind
the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  87  65  87 /  10  10  40  20
Hobart OK         60  90  62  91 /  10   0  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  63  91  64  89 /  40   0  20  10
Gage OK           55  87  60  93 /   0   0  10  30
Ponca City OK     64  90  63  89 /  10  10  40  30
Durant OK         65  88  67  87 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
205 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081915-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
205 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon
and this evening across all of western sections of north Texas,
and that part of Oklahoma south of a line from Altus to Lawton to
Healdton to Marietta. North of the slight risk area is a marginal
risk that is south of a line from near Hollis and Hobart to
Tuttle to Pauls Valley and Durant. Hail up to the size of
baseballs and wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph will be possible. The
most likely time for severe weather will be between 5 PM and
midnight.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
across northwestern Oklahoma due to hot temperatures, very low
humidity and gusty southwesterly winds.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast each day this week and strong
to severe storms will be possible each day. On Monday, a marginal
risk of severe thunderstorms covers much of Oklahoma and western
north Texas. On Tuesday, there is a risk of severe storms in the
late afternoon and evening across much of northern and western
Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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