Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
343 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Currently, scattered cumulus is developing and increasing across
Oklahoma and western north Texas as the atmosphere continues to
destabilize during the afternoon. A surface trough is currently
positions through north central Oklahoma through western Oklahoma,
where along the boundary the highest convective development is
ongoing. While vertical development has struggled to mature due to a
lack of instability and lift so far, conditions will improve for
convective development through the afternoon.

With the upper level ridge strengthening over the western US, a
shortwave will develop in the upper level flow and move through the
region will provide additional support for storms developing the
afternoon and evening. With sufficient instability (Surface CAPE
1500-2000 J/kg), sufficient shear (0-6km shear > 30kts), moderate
anvil layer flow (~30kts), and an uncapped environment, large hail
will be a concern with any storms that develop. In addition, strong
to damaging winds will also be possible with some potential for
inverted-v soundings. Activity will decrease with the loss of
daytime heating.

Storms will exit the region from north to south as the upper level
cyclone begins shifting to the southeast. Precipitation will end
around midnight, and result in a dry overnight and Tuesday. Skies
will clear and southerly winds will continue Tuesday.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

The upper level ridge over the western US will continue to expand
and stretch over the central Plains through mid-week. With the ridge
to the west and the closed off upper level cyclone drifting to
the southeast, conditions will remain fairly calm through the
region, with a gradual increase in temperatures, dry conditions,
and southerly winds.

An upper level trough will begin to move into the western CONUS
Wednesday into Thursday, and a more progressive upper level flow
will develop. The upper level ridge will move eastward out of the
area and the trough will dig through the region Friday night into
Saturday, bringing the next best chance of precipitation.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon and
continue through this evening across northern, central, and
southwestern OK. Confidence is currently high enough to include
tempo groups for TSRA for all but WWR and SPS. The storms should
subside shortly after sunset this evening. Some patchy fog can't
be ruled out for tomorrow morning but confidence isn't high enough
yet to mention in the 18Z TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  73  49  75 /  60   0   0   0
Hobart OK         48  76  48  78 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  52  75  48  77 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           46  79  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     49  76  49  79 /  30   0   0   0
Durant OK         51  74  49  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111745-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1231 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
and continue through this evening across portions of northern,
central, and southwestern Oklahoma. A few severe storms will be
possible. Hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up to
70 mph will be the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Fire Weather...
Much warmer and windy conditions will create elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions across portions of western and
northwestern Oklahoma Wednesday through Saturday.

.Thunderstorms...
A storm system will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the area
Friday and Saturday. A few severe storms appear possible on
Friday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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