River Flood Warning 2, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
652 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Through Midnight Tonight: The primary focus remains the severe
weather and flash flooding potential. As of 1230 PM, a cold front
extends (roughly) along a line from Crowell, TX to Seminole, OK. A
passing (compact) upper impulse, combined with isentropic ascent,
has fostered the development of shallow shower activity from
southwest through east-central Oklahoma. Our 18z upper air release
has captured remaining mid-level inhibition which has likely
limited deep convective attempts late this morning. However, with
time (2-4 PM), more robust convection is expected to develop near
and just north of the frontal zone. Additional isolated storms
are also expected to develop near/east of a triple point (across
western-north Texas/3-6 PM) as another bout of upper forcing
overspreads the region. This activity will likely continue into
southern/south-central Oklahoma through the late evening/midnight
hour.

Large hail remains a threat with any severe thunderstorm across the
region this evening. Sufficient magnitudes of cloud
layer/effective shear and MUCAPE remain evident such that hail up
to the size of golf balls seems like a good bet. A few larger
stones (up to tennis ball size) are also possible with the
strongest updrafts this evening. Though a majority of storms are
expected to quickly propagate north of the surface front (i.e.
become "elevated"), we are closely monitoring the potential for
surface-based hazards (wind/tornado) across the region. Overall,
the tornado threat in particular still appears low, owing to
rather weak low-level shear expected (10-15 knots), though non-
zero. One area we are closely watching this afternoon is the
triple point vicinity across far southwest Oklahoma/west-north
Texas. Here, sufficient stretching potential (0-3 km CAPE) may
overlap with the near-surface vorticity zone for a tornado. This
potential would appear to be focused in the 3-9 PM timeframe this
evening.

Heavy rainfall potential also remains a concern this evening into
the overnight. This is most expected near and just south of the I-44
corridor. The potential for training convection, in an environment
characterized by seasonably 90th-maximum Preciptable Water values,
yields this threat. The Flood Watch has been expanded a bit
further west into south-central Oklahoma through Friday morning.

Friday (after Midnight/05z): At least isolated severe weather
chances, along with continued heavy rainfall/flooding concern, will
remain through midday Friday. Convection is expected to gradually
organize/congeal along the advancing Pacific front across southern
into southeastern Oklahoma. A few instances of hail and perhaps a
damaging wind gust will be possible here through mid-morning.
Some shower/storm chances may linger across far southeastern
zones, coincident with the mid-level (850 mb) front through early
afternoon.

Another forecast variable to monitor tomorrow will be the
potential for isolated convection west of I-35 during afternoon
into evening hours. A ribbon of instability (aided by passage of a
cold upper low) is progged to develop in the post frontal regime,
extending from east Texas towards far southeast Colorado. While
inhibition may thwart a majority of convective attempts, some CAM
members depict isolated convection across the western half of
Oklahoma/north Texas. This potential will likely be confined to
peak heating hours (3-7 PM) with the strongest storm capable of
producing small hail.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Weekend: Generally low impact weather is expected this weekend. A
surface high pressure cell will shift towards the Plains, fostering
mostly dry weather with seasonable temperatures (60s). Towards the
end of the weekend, a broad Pacific shortwave will slowly deepen
and shift towards the Central Plains. Sufficient forcing for
ascent may foster some showers across northern Oklahoma from
Sunday morning through afternoon.

Early Next Week: Current indications are for high-amplitude ridging
to establish across the Plains and promote low impact weather. This
may include a warming trend in temperatures (into the 70s).
Towards the midweek, a deep Pacific trough may slide towards the
Plains and foster chances for precipitation across the forecast
area.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

MVFR (to low-end IFR) conditions are expected for most terminals
through the period. Scattered areas of convection continue to
develop near a frontal boundary drifting southward across the Red
River. Storm chances will tend to focus across the I-44 corridor
(SPS/LAW/OUN/OKC/SWO) over the coming hours, with coverage perhaps
increasing around 04-06z.

Shower/storm chances will slowly end from west-to-east towards
Friday morning across the region. Low stratus is expected behind
precipitation through midday hours on Friday. For now, have opted
to leave MVFR level cigs, though borderline IFR cigs are possible.
Renewed chances for precipitation are possible across northeast
Oklahoma towards the 17-19z timeframe.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  47  59  39  64 /  70  10  10   0
Hobart OK         46  66  37  64 /  60  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  70  44  69 /  60  10   0   0
Gage OK           37  59  32  59 /  30  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     43  55  34  59 /  60  40  10  10
Durant OK         59  73  46  70 /  80  80   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ023-025>032-038>043.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
307 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-242015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
307 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through early Friday morning
from western-north Texas through south-central and southeast
Oklahoma. Large hail, up to golf ball size, will be the primary
hazard. However, a tornado and/or damaging winds are also possible
with storms this evening across western-north Texas.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Areas of heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding are expected
across east-central into southeastern Oklahoma through early
Friday morning.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
central and southern Oklahoma, as well as western-north Texas,
should prepare for severe weather operations this afternoon
through Friday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Fire Weather...
Areas of near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across
far western Oklahoma and western-north Texas on Friday and
Saturday afternoon.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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