Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Norman, OK

267 
WWUS84 KOUN 152041
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
241 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

...Near Critical Fire Weather Conditions This Afternoon...

OKZ004-009-010-160100-
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230116T0100Z/
Harper-Ellis-Woodward-
241 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, BREEZY WINDS, AND DRY 
FUELS FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* TIMING...Through 7 pm.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...65 to 70 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop could spread rapidly. Outdoor 
  burning and other activities that could lead to fire starts 
  are strongly discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures will
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Mahale

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1102 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

Warm, above-average temperatures and windy conditions will
continue into Sunday.

An intense surface low in the lee of the Rockies will result in
breezy southerly winds Sunday afternoon due to a tight surface
pressure gradient. While abundant mid to high level clouds should
temper the magnitude of vertical mixing, some wind gusts may
approach 40 mph (especially across northwest Oklahoma). At this
time, given the forecast cloud cover, confidence is not high for
frequent gusts above 40 mph and a Wind Advisory.

Forecast soundings indicate that the aforementioned cloud cover
will be rather dense (~15,000 to 25,000 ft deep), which will also
temper insolation. Even so, high temperatures are forecast to be
~15 deg F above average for mid-January given the presence of a
low-level thermal ridge. If the cloud cover is less widespread and
dense than forecast, temperatures could even be warmer than
forecast. Either way, it'll be another day where it won't feel
like a typical January day outside. The warm and breezy conditions
will result in elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions--see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more
details.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

As a shortwave trough lifts into the Plains Sunday night, the
surface low will accelerate to the east and then to the
northeast, veering the low level winds and gradually relaxing the
pressure gradient for Monday. A cold front will advance southward
Monday night into Tuesday as the surface low moves toward the
Great Lakes; however, any cool down will be limited as the center
of the post-frontal surface high will remain well to the north.
As a result, temperatures will remain above-average Tuesday
afternoon.

By Wednesday, another shortwave is forecast to move into the
Southern Plains. There will be a chance for rain with this trough
with the highest probability across the east and northeast. The
greatest uncertainty is the northeast extent of the dryslot. The
probability of rain is markedly lower across southwest
Oklahoma/western north Texas where the dryslot is most likely to
limit precipitation. The dryslot could even limit precipitation
across central Oklahoma.

Beyond Thursday, an elongated trough is progged to develop across
the Northern Plains into the southwest U.S. There remains some
uncertainty on whether the synoptic pattern will be a split flow
regime or a single, highly amplified trough. Either way, this
pattern will increase the probability for a colder air mass to
advance southward into the Southern Plains. Probabilistic guidance
indicates a cooling trend by next Saturday with near or perhaps
even slightly below average temperatures.

While confidence is moderate to high for some magnitude of colder
weather (compared to now), precipitation will depend on the
evolution the aforementioned trough(s) (i.e., confidence is much
lower on this aspect of the forecast). A split-flow regime with a
distinct southwest U.S. trough would be more favorable for
precipitation (perhaps even winter precipitation depending on the
thermal profile). For now, the official forecast remains dry
given the most likely scenario (based on probabilistic guidance)
is dry conditions.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

The wind will remain relatively high overnight, but winds above
the surface are even higher and non-convective low-level wind
shear will be an issue. Surface winds increase more after sunrise
on Sunday morning. Mid-level moisture will be moving in from the
west through the forecast period. NAM is still very aggressive
with the low-level moisture moving in through the day Sunday and
NAM/NBM would suggest some MVFR ceilings developing across central
and north central Oklahoma, but will keep the low clouds out of
the TAFs based on the majority of the models.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

An intense surface low across southwest Kansas will result in
breezy southerly winds that will veer slightly toward the south-
southwest as vertical mixing increases during the afternoon.
There are indications as this occurs, a dryslot could develop with
lower dewpoints and lower relative humidity values across
northwest Oklahoma. Northwest Oklahoma will also be located in
the center a low-level thermal ridge with anomalously warm
afternoon highs near 70 deg F.

The aforementioned meteorological conditions will result in near
critical fire weather conditions. Combined with ERC-G percentiles
near the 80th percentile, the weather and fuel environment may
become conducive for rapid wildfire spread. Hence, a Fire Weather
Watch was issued.

One caveat is that abundant mid to high level clouds should
temper the magnitude of vertical mixing and the heating of the
fuels. This will be a limiting factor for higher-end fire weather
conditions (and justification for only a watch at this time).

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  44  63  51  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         42  66  48  67 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  44  68  54  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           44  69  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     42  62  48  63 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         42  67  57  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for OKZ004-009-010.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
550 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-160000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
550 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected through sunrise Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Fire Weather...
Warm temperatures, dry air, and continued gusty southerly winds
will yield Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions
across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Sunday afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be confined to far southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas on Monday afternoon with gusty
southwest to west winds. Outdoor burning, and other activities
that could lead to fire starts, should be avoided.

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