Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
600 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Through Daybreak Tuesday: Below normal temperatures are expected
through this evening. The region will remain on the periphery of
a Canadian high, centered across the Ozarks, through the day
today. This is promoting another day of slightly below average
temperatures for early July (mid-80s north to mid-90s south). A
majority of developing storms across the High Plains should remain
west of the forecast area through sunset, though a storm or two
is possible across far western-north Texas.

By late this evening (and into early Tuesday morning), widely
scattered storms/storm complexes are expected to advance off the
High Plains and across the area. Morning guidance appears to be
converging towards the idea of two separate complexes, one across
the eastern Texas Caprock and another across southern Kansas,
spreading into western portions of the forecast area after 9-10 PM
this evening. In addition, an increasing low-level jet response
(isentropic upglide) is expected in the vicinity of an effective
front across southern Oklahoma. The combination will likely result
in widespread showers and storms early on Tuesday morning,
focusing from southwest into central Oklahoma.

At least some severe weather potential will exist with overnight
convection. Once again, the primary hazard will be damaging wind
gusts (an isolated gust of 70-80 mph possible). Given sufficient
shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and a reservoir of 1000-2500
J/kg MUCAPE, hail chances cannot be ruled out, though will likely
be confined to the strongest updrafts/cores. Of greatest concern
looks to be the potential for scattered instances of flash
flooding across western, central and southern Oklahoma during the
overnight period. Forecasted precipitable water magnitudes
continue to look very impressive (at or near record observed
values) for this time of year (1.9-2.3 inches). In addition, a
deep warm cloud layer and moist vertical column point towards
efficient rainfall production. With the expectation for deep
convection (possibly multiple rounds in some spots), flash
flooding and exacerbation of ongoing high flow in some rivers
looks increasingly possible early on Tuesday morning. As such, a
Flood Watch has been issued for portions of west-central into
southern Oklahoma through 9 AM Tuesday morning.

Tuesday: A return to hot afternoon temperatures is expected,
especially across southern Oklahoma/western-north Texas. Lingering
areas of precipitation will be exiting the forecast area by mid-
morning hours. In its wake, an afternoon of hot temperatures is
expected, centered across southwestern Oklahoma and western-north
Texas. This includes triple digit dry-bulb temperatures with 105-110
degree heat index values. An apparent 'fly in the ointment' at
this update (at least on the heat headline/advisory front) is the
potential for lingering mid and high clouds into the early
afternoon. Despite this, given expectation for at least some
dangerous heat areas, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the 1-8
PM period on Tuesday.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Wednesday-Thursday: Hot temperatures and mainly dry time is expected
for all areas. A majority of guidance continues to point towards the
southwest US ridge generally flattening through the work week. This
will promote a return of seasonably hot afternoon and evening
temperatures with dangerous heat indicies (105-110 degrees),
especially across southwestern zones. Both days appear to be rather
'slam dunk' for heat headlines at subsequent updates. What is
less certain are chances for precipitation during this period.
While the broad synoptic regime does not favor more than isolated
PoP chances, the ridge axis may remain far enough west that upper
systems/fronts can bring some chance for precipitation to the area
(especially for northern zones). For now, sub-20% PoP chances
will be maintained.

Friday-Next Weekend: Bouts of unsettled weather and 'cooler'
temperatures may return to the region. The southwestern upper ridge
is forecast to retrograde some by next weekend. This is likely to
promote a return of 'northwest flow' aloft and yield near-daily
chances for shower/storm areas across the region. Temperatures
may fall back towards slightly-below normal readings for mid July
(80s across north/central and 90s across Red River Valley) by next
weekend as well.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

VFR conditons to begin this evening. However, another round of
storms are expected to move across the area overnight with a
period of MVFR and possibly some IFR conditions. Expect clearing
skies Tuesday morning with southwest winds increasing. Some gusts
over 20kts likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  92  75  98 /  70  20   0   0
Hobart OK         71  97  74 102 /  40  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  74 101  77 106 /  40  20   0   0
Gage OK           69  95  72 100 /  30   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     71  90  73  97 /  50  30  10   0
Durant OK         73  93  76  97 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
     for OKZ011-015>020-022>032-035>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ033-036-037-
     039-044>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
     for TXZ085-086-090.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
306 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-112015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
306 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to move off the High
Plains and into portions of western Oklahoma and western-north
Texas late this evening. Activity will transition towards central
Oklahoma by early Tuesday morning (after 12 AM). Severe weather
chances will exist with this activity, with damaging winds and
perhaps a few instances of large hail being possible.

.Heavy Rainfall...
In addition to the severe weather potential, heavy rainfall will
be possible from western-north Texas into central Oklahoma. Flash
flooding will also be possible, especially in areas that have
received recent heavy rains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
There are chances for thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma on
Wednesday night as well as Thursday night. Additional chances
will exist over a larger area of Oklahoma and into portions of
north Texas on Friday into next weekend.

.Excessive Heat...
Dangerous heat indices will be possible during the afternoon and
evening hours on Tuesday and continue through much of the week,
especially across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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