Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Spokane, WA

051 
WWUS86 KOTX 190351
RFWOTX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Spokane WA
851 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023


WAZ703-191200-
/O.EXP.KOTX.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230819T0400Z/
/O.CON.KOTX.FW.W.0012.230819T1700Z-230820T0200Z/
Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-
851 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO...

* Affected Area: Fire Weather Zone 703 Okanogan Valley (Zone 
  703).

* Winds: North wind 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidities: 10 to 20 percent.

* Impacts: Any new or existing fires will have the potential to
  spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IDZ101-WAZ696>702-704>709-190500-
/O.EXP.KOTX.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230819T0400Z/
Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101)-
East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-
East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National
Recreation Area (Zone 697)-
East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-
Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-
Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700)-
Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-
Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-
Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-
Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707)-
Eastern Columbia Basin - Palouse - Spokane Area (Zone 708)-
Lower Palouse - Snake River (Zone 709)-
851 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH
IDAHO...

Winds over most of the region have dropped to below warning
levels. Thus the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire at 9
PM PDT.

$$

956 
WWUS86 KOTX 191152
RFWOTX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Spokane WA
452 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2023

WAZ703-200200-
/O.CON.KOTX.FW.W.0012.230819T1700Z-230820T0200Z/
Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-
452 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY...

* Affected Area: Fire Weather Zone 703 Okanogan Valley (Zone 
  703).

* Winds: North 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidities: 10 to 20 percent.

* Impacts: Any new or existing fires will have the potential to
  spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

743 
WWUS86 KOTX 200141
RFWOTX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Spokane WA
641 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2023

WAZ703-200245-
/O.EXP.KOTX.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-230820T0200Z/
Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-
641 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR OKANOGAN VALLEY...

Winds have decreased to below critical thresholds. Thus the Red
Flag Warning will expire at 7 PM PDT this evening.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
938 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy dry conditions are expected through Friday raising fire
weather concerns. A cooldown with a push of breezy winds and
possible showers arrives by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WARM, DRY WINDS WILL RESUME FRIDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS...

Today and Tonight: As a dry cold front continues to move through the
region, fire weather concerns continue. While the temperatures
will begin a downward trend to normals, the Inland Northwest will
still be under warm, dry conditions with highs in the 90s and
upper 80s expected. A tightening pressure gradient across the
region will keep winds breezy with sustained in the upper teens
and 20s. Gusts will reach into the 30s. Area ridgetops should
expect stronger gusts into the low 40s mph. Ensembles continue to
push a band of moisture across Southeast WA and Lower ID
Panhandle. It will bring light shower activity to the area.
Iinstability with the band is still weak with less than 20%
probability of Cape higher than 100 Joules. An isolated lightning
strike is possible but confidence is low. As the front exits
overnight, a broad trough will sag over the region. Winds will
calm behind the front.

Saturday and Sunday: The weekend will see a return to season
normal temperatures of 80s and upper 70s. Air quality is still
expected to be an issue as smoke from wildfires continue to filter
into the Inland Northwest. Influence of tropical moisture
associated with Hilary will begin to be seen on Sunday. It will be
increased cloud cover for most of the region. The ID Pahandle has
the best chance of seeing any precip chances by the end of the
weekend. /JDC

Monday through Thursday: Southerly flow will carry moisture from
Hurricane Hilary across Nevada and into South-Central Idaho
through the day on Monday. The outer edge of the moisture will
brush Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho, bringing showers and
possible thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Latest
model runs suggest moisture will bleed farther into the Northwest
than what previous runs have shown, thus trending precipitation
and thunderstorm chances upward in our region.

Chances for showers Monday and Tuesday in far Eastern Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle range from 30% to 60% with lower chances
to the northwest and higher chances to the southeast. Thunderstorm
chances are not as impressive (generally less than 15%) and are
confined to the Northern Mountains and southeastern Shoshone
county.

Following the main precip event on Monday and Tuesday, a
progressive pattern with multiple shortwave disturbances passing
through will keep intermittent chances for showers in the forecast
through the end of the week. Expect daytime highs in the 80s and
overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

The other notable concern of next week is smoke, which is
expected to stick around through at least early next week per the
NASA smoke model. Persistent south-southwest flow will help keep
smoke from British Columbia fires out of the area, but it could
also bring smoke up from fires in Southwest Oregon. How much smoke
we'll see through the middle to end of next week will depend on
how active the Southwest Oregon fires are at that point. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: West winds will peak during the afternoon with
sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 mph from Wenatchee
to Moses Lake to Spokane and Pullman. Thick smoke from the Crater
Creek fire in British Columbia northwest of Oroville will restrict
surface visibility to 3 miles or less this afternoon and evening
at small airports like Republic, Colville, and Bonners Ferry.
Winds will become calm overnight. Smoke and haze will continue to
filter south into the Columbia Basin. TAF sites can expect smoke
and haze overnight and through the weekend. /Butler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        89  53  86  54  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d'Alene  88  50  86  53  88  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        85  48  85  52  86  57 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       94  60  92  64  92  67 /  20   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       89  43  85  44  90  50 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      87  47  84  50  86  55 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        84  54  84  58  85  63 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake     89  54  87  57  90  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      85  59  85  62  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           90  56  87  58  93  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

WA...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of
     North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National
     Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades
     (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-
     Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-
     Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-
     Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse
      -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan
     Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley
     (Zone 703)-Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone
     700)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin
     (Zone 707).

&&