Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
817 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across this evening. High pressure will
then slowly build in from the northwest through the middle of
next week. A frontal system could impact the area late in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 9 PM.

Line of convection with very little lightning but producing
strong/damaging wind gusts in a high-DCAPE environment moving
across SW CT, western Long Island and NYC attm. Some training
of cells is occurring across the far northern portion of our CT
zones, with radar estimating over an inch in spots.

The cold front will continue pushing south and east of the area
tonight with most of the convection moving offshore. Drier air
will begin working in from the north and west overnight on a
gusty NW flow. Skies may remain partly to mostly cloudy, but
temperatures likely will fall into the lower 60s inland to the
mid/upper 60s most elsewhere. The NYC metro should fall to
around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday surface high pressure will begin building in from
southern Canada. Highs will be much cooler than recent days and
actually could end up a few degrees below normal in the lower
to middle 80s. Dew points will range from the upper 50s to low
60s allowing humidity levels to be much lower.

An isolated shower is possibly Sunday night as a shortwave
rounds the base of an upper trough. Will continue with the
mention of a slight chance for a shower, but most of the area
will be dry late Sunday night. Sunday night temperatures will
fall into the upper 50s and low 60s inland and middle 60s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper trough axis remains overhead on Monday and high
pressure will continue building into the region. High
temperatures will range between the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Other than an isolated early morning shower, no precipitation is
currently anticipated. Next week continues to look like the
most comfortable airmass we have seen in several weeks. High
pressure will slide down from Canada Monday night through
Wednesday as an upper level trough sits over the eastern CONUS.
Embedded shortwaves will assist in reinforcing shots of cooler,
drier air. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s each day, which is about 5 degrees cooler than normal for
early August. Stuck close to the NBM with temperatures. Blended
in some of the MEX guidance for Tuesday night as radiational
cooling conditions look decent. This may be more for the
interior as winds may stay up too much down in the Pine Barrens
of Long Island. There is potential for temps to drop into the
upper 40s in far northwestern Orange.

The trough axis shifts east of the area on Wednesday and heights
rise briefly ahead of an approaching frontal system. Strong low
pressure will track well to our north, but could drag a cold
front through the area late in the week. There are some hints of
a decent rainfall. The NBM currently has about a 20-25% chance
across the lower Hudson Valley and southern CT for 1 inch of
rain in the 24 hr period ending 00z Saturday. Of course, this
far out there are timing and strength differences among the
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will pass through this evening. A weak low pressure
trough will be nearby on Sunday as weak high pressure begins
to gradually nose in from the west.

Line of convection with strong wind gusts has passed the NYC
metro and will impact KBDR/KISP early on (before 01Z) KGON by
01Z-02Z. Wind shift to the W-NW should follow but the actual
cold front lags behind by a couple of hours, so there could
still be an isolated shower this evening. After actual cold
fropa expect a gusty NW flow late this evening into the
overnight. Winds may settle for a time this morning, then
increase to around or just over 10 kt with some gusts 15-20 kt
Sunday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected now that tstms have moved east.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night and Monday morning: Mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Wednesday night: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
After thunderstorms with strong winds pass early this evening,
sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters from late tonight
through at least Wednesday night. A frontal system late in the
week could bring SCA conditions with a strengthening S flow and
building ocean seas.

A Marine Weather Statement continues for Long Island Sound. The
US Coast Guard still indicates a large debris field caused by
recent flooding across New England.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms this evening will bring locally heavy
rainfall which could lead to localized minor flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a weaker and offshore flow on Sunday, there is a moderate
rip current risk at all ocean beaches. For Monday with a
diminished wind wave and a weaker swell, expect a low overall
risk of rip currents.

With a full moon on August 1st, some minor coastal flooding is
possible. The main concern is for the South Shore Back Bays of
southern Nassau and southern Queens and the western Long Island
Sound during the Sunday night, Monday night and Tuesday night
high tide cycles. Coastal flood statements and/or advisories
may be needed.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ080-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
317 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-079-176>179-301930-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
317 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ080-081-301930-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
317 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Heat Advisory.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ338-340-345-350-353-355-301930-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
317 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-301930-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
317 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A large debris field across Long Island Sound, caused by recent
flooding across New England, poses a hazard for swimmers, boaters,
and other watercraft. The debris may include trees, logs, docks,
deck boards and coolers, and may not be easily visible. Boaters and
swimmers should exercise caution.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
821 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

CTZ008-012-300100-
Southern New London CT-Northern New London CT-
821 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NEW LONDON COUNTY
THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

At 821 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Canterbury to near Gales
Ferry. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jewett City, Norwich, Waterford, Ledyard, Griswold, Preston, Lisbon,
Sprague, Bozrah, Voluntown, Gales Ferry, Ledyard Center, Montville,
North Stonington, and Franklin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southern Connecticut.

&&

LAT...LON 4142 7180 4142 7182 4141 7184 4140 7184
      4138 7183 4137 7183 4144 7221 4166 7213
      4163 7196 4164 7186 4164 7179
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 278DEG 30KT 4171 7203 4147 7214

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BR

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