Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
519 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of the forecast area
today and tonight. Unsettled weather is expected much of the time
from Saturday through Tuesday as a series of frontal boundaries move
across the area. High pressure returns for Wednesday. Another
frontal system may affect the region Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Flood Watch in effect through midnight for the Lower Hudson Valley
and Southern CT.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across portions of
the CWA early this morning. Most of the storms are across the
northern half of the CWA. Earlier this evening, portions of
Orange County saw anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain. A few
cities may have seen locally higher amounts. This area of heavy
rainfall, has moved east into southern CT and have weakened over
time. With PWATs currently 1.5-1.75, expect any showers that
move across the CWA to produce locally heavy rainfall.

We should get a break in the precipitation after sunrise for a few
hours, but with a frontal boundary remaining to our west and an
upper level shortwave progged to move across the region today,
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected later in
the day.

Based on the overnight models and CAMS, uncertainty remains on the
timing and placement of convection.

Any showers and thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding of poor drainage
areas. Localized flash flooding is also a threat. WPC has maintained
the slight risk of excessive rainfall for much of the area. The one
exception is across the Lower Hudson Valley, where through
collaboration, we have decided to go with a moderate risk, based on
all the recent rainfall and the threat of additional heavy rain
today. The areas in the moderate risk have been hit hard with heavy
rain over the last week and it wont take much additional rainfall to
result in flash flooding. Have hoisted a flood watch for the
northern half of the CWA, since this area of the CWA has had the
most rain over the last 5-7 days, and are the most vulnerable for
any flooding to occur today.

In addition, SPC has also maintained the marginal risk with an
isolated threat of damaging wind gusts.

It will remain hot and humid today with temperatures slightly cooler
today than the past few days. Highs should remain in the 80s CWA
wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
evening hours, then gradually diminish after dark with weakening
instability and loss of heating. Warm and muggy conditions will
continue Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term period.

A closed upper low over south central Canada will drift south
through Sunday and then evolve into an open trough Sunday night.
This trough then passes through the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Shortwaves will be rotating into the eastern portion of
the low as surface troughs/weak low pressures pass through the area.
There is a lot of uncertainty with the timing of the shortwaves,
and the development of the surface troughs/low pressures. Any of the
showers and thunderstorms may produce briefly heavy rain, especially
during Sunday as precipitable water values increase to 2 to 2.25
inches, and warm cloud processes dominate. And WPC continues to keep
most of the CWA in a slight risk for excessive rainfall, with the
potential for flash flooding. Monday the longwave upper trough will
be moving through the area and showers and thunderstorms will be
possible once again, and may be more diurnally driven.

Closely followed the NBM for temperatures and probabilities through
the extended period. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals
through the period, with no records expected to be broken.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front within the area today will begin to slowly lift north.

Showers and thunderstorms moving across parts of NYC, Long
Island and Southern Connecticut this morning expected to be east
of all terminals by 12Z. Categories vary from MVFR to VFR. IFR
is still forecast at a few terminals with high enough potential
for lower ceilings going into this morning. More shower and
thunderstorm activity is possible late this morning through the
rest of the TAF period.

Winds light (5 kts or less) and variable direction into early this
morning across the area for most terminals. NYC terminals remain
with a southerly wind near 7-10 kt. A return S/SW flow around 8-10
kt then develops going into this afternoon.

Confidence remains low with showers and thunderstorms today.
Continued with a PROB30 between 18Z today and 01Z Saturday and
still think this is the best chance for any showers/thunderstorms.
However, an isolated shower or thunderstorm could move through
before or after this period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Very low confidence with the timing of showers and thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Tonight: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers/thunderstorms, mainly in
the evening.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible in the morning, otherwise VFR with
a chance of showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Sunday-Tuesday: Chance of showers/thunderstorms with MVFR or
lower.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through early next week. However, an
increasing southerly swell Sunday into Monday may allow for ocean
seas to be near 5 feet at times Monday into Monday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch is in effect for the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern
CT today.

Locally heavy rain is possible from any shower or thunderstorm
through tonight. The main concern is from minor poor drainage
flooding and a low potential of small stream from reaching bankfull.
The Weather Prediction Center has placed the area in a slight risk
for flash flooding today and tonight, with the exception of the
lower hudson valley where a moderate risk exists. This area was
upgraded to a moderate risk due to all the heavy rainfall that has
fallen over the last week.

Additional rounds of moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible
Saturday and especially Sunday, with the threat of flash flooding,
nuisance, and minor flooding of poor drainage areas possible.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at all the
ocean beaches today and Saturday.

Southerly winds with southerly swells around 2 ft will be in place
across the ocean beaches during this time period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ067>071.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
406 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

CTZ005>012-NYZ067>071-150815-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
406 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the
weekend with flooding possible especially considering this area had
previous flooding over the last week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-150815-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
406 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a risk of localized flash flooding today. The Weather
Prediction Center has the area in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the
weekend with flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-150815-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
406 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
218 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NE Unionville         41.33N 74.53W
07/13/2023                   Orange             NY   Law Enforcement

            Tree down on wires near Jacobs Road and
            Route 1.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
221 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Unionville         41.31N 74.55W
07/13/2023                   Orange             NY   Law Enforcement

            Tree down on wires on McMullen Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
224 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Somers            41.33N 73.73W
07/14/2023                   Westchester        NY   Dept of Highways

            Tree Down and Road Closure on US 202 both
            directions at Lovell St. (Somers) all lanes
            of 2 lanes closed.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
232 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSE Danbury Airport   41.34N 73.45W
07/14/2023                   Fairfield          CT   Law Enforcement

            Tree down on West Redding Road blocking one
            lane of traffic.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
644 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ074-141130-
Hudson NJ-Eastern Union NJ-Eastern Essex NJ-Western Union NJ-
Western Essex NJ-Richmond (Staten Is.) NY-
644 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Hudson, Union, Essex
and Richmond Counties through 730 AM EDT...

At 643 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Blairstown to Yorketown. Movement was northeast
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Elizabeth, Bayonne, Plainfield, Linden, Orange, Summit,
Millburn, Harrison, Todt Hill, Caldwell, Huguenot, The Verrazano
Narrows Bridge, Port Richmond and Tottenville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4049 7427 4052 7425 4055 7425 4056 7421
      4060 7422 4060 7446 4066 7440 4067 7440
      4065 7445 4067 7446 4076 7436 4076 7438
      4086 7432 4087 7434 4091 7433 4091 7430
      4065 7405 4059 7404 4054 7410 4050 7422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1043Z 214DEG 32KT 4097 7500 4030 7433

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JM