Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
359 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will impact the area tonight. A slow moving
frontal system will produce areas of showers and thunderstorms
through the middle of the week. Weak high pres builds in for
Friday. Another frontal system may approach for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Shwrs and tstms continue to develop across NJ and PA this aftn.

SBCAPE around 2500 J/kg in those areas. CAPE was a little less
in the CWA, with around 1500 in NJ and up to 2000 in spots in
interior CT. The Hudson Valley was still recovering, but it
seems reasonable that they should shoot up to at least 1500 in
the next few hours. Higher may be difficult with the thick
cirrus blowoff moving in.

As a result, additional tstms should develop in and near wrn
portions of the cwa into this eve. Will keep sct coverage max
across CT with less forcing.

Tstms track newd per modeled storm motion, encroaching on more
stable coastal areas including NYC. Challenge will be how
strong and far storms are able to maintain into this more stable
airmass.

Pops for this aftn and eve have been reduced to slight chance
for most of LI into ern CT, with mainly chance/sct pops
elsewhere thru the period. Likely probs for the Hudson Valley
thru NJ.

The main svr threat will be large hail and damaging winds. Wind
threat will be higher than earlier today with greater
instability and convection rooted in the BL.

After convection this aftn/eve, the focus becomes the upr low
over Lake Huron and the associated wave east of Lake Erie. Went
close to the NAM for pops with this to try to get some decent
timing. There is still room for adjustment as the activity
evolves, but it essentially looks like a round of shwrs and
tstms traversing the cwa overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Residual shwrs and tstms possible in the mrng, then additional
activity likely to develop thru the day as the upr low reaches
wrn NY state. Difficult to pinpoint the exact timing and
location of storms attm, but wrn areas are most likely to be
favored based on the pattern. There could be an elevated flood
threat in those wrn areas, depending on how things pan out thru
tngt.

Additional shwrs and tstms possible Tue ngt as the upr trof
axis approaches. A lack of instability should limit the hvy
rain and svr threat however.

The NBM with local adjustments was used for temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The NBM with local adjustments was used for the extended.

A few diurnal shwrs and tstms possible on Wed with late June sun
and the upr trof slowly passing thru and exiting the region.
Model timing issues with the exact speed of the upr feature, and
there could be some additional activity on Thu, particularly ern
areas, if the slower GFS verifies.

For Fri, weak high pres builds in. At least dry to start. Based
on current trends, the next upr trof may get here too late to
spark activity, but the blended approach still yield aftn
chances.

The next upr low tracks across Ontario over the weekend, so
additional chances for shwrs and tstms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front will remain nearby, nearly stationary through the TAF
period.

An area of showers and thunderstorms that developed just south of
the metro terminals will move through between 20-21Z and then move
into the Lower Hudson Valley through 22-23Z. Gusty winds of 40 kt or
higher are possible with these storms, along with hail. However,
given uncertainty where the highest winds will be, kept gusts to 25
kt with these storms.

VFR conditions outside of any showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. MVFR or lower as fog and low stratus affects the forecast
area once again tonight. Best chances for MVFR is after 00Z-01Z,
then IFR or lower is possible after 03Z. These conditions will occur
a few hours earlier for terminals along the coast.

Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be around 10 kt during the day
today out of the S to SE, weakening to under 10 kt tonight.
Slightly stronger winds of 10 to 15 kt by mid Tuesday morning.

A line of showers and thunderstorms currently pushing northeast of
the metro terminals will move through the Lower Hudson Valley
through around 20Z. Another area of showers and thunderstorms is
currently developing to the southwest over western central and New
Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania will also head northeast this
afternoon. This area of showers and thunderstorms looks like it
could lift north of and bypass the metro terminals, but will likely
affect KSWF. However, will have to monitor those storms and their
development and if the path or coverage of the storms change, then
will include TEMPO for TSRA. They could could affect KEWR around
20Z. Thereafter, the best chances for showers looks to be after 00Z,
but there is uncertainty as to how much thunder will occur with
these storms. Better chances for thunder come Tuesday morning into
the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely due to uncertainty in thunderstorms coverage.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday: Showers. Tstms with gusty winds and
hail possible, especially afternoon/evening. MVFR cond expected, IFR
possible.

Thursday: Chance of showers and a slight chance of tstms. MVFR or
lower possible at times.

Friday: Becoming VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing southerly flow helps build seas to around 5 ft
tonight. Winds may also come close to 25 kt on the ocean,
especially on Tuesday with seas 5 to 7 ft. A SCA has been issued
thru Tue ngt. Seas are expected to remain elevated into
Wednesday night decreasing during the day on Thursday.
Conditions then largely remain below SCA through the rest of the
period, with the possibility of 5 ft waves over the ocean
waters Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a continued risk of minor flooding and localized flash
flooding into tonight in showers and thunderstorms. WPC has a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall across much of the area with
a slight risk across interior NE NJ and interior Lower Hudson
Valley.

A localized risk of flash flooding continues on Tuesday, mainly
across NE NJ and the lower Hudson Valley. This threat could end
up being a bit higher depending on how much rainfall the area
receives tngt. Regardless, locally heavy rainfall is possible
in any showers or thunderstorms which could produce minor
flooding.

Hydrologic impacts are also possible Wednesday into Thursday,
but may be dependent on where the heaviest rainfall occurs
through Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The moderate risk of rip current development continues for all ocean
beaches today. The risk is high on Tuesday due to stronger
southerly flow and higher seas.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
317 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067-069-271930-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Rockland-
317 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area in a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms. The main threats are damaging wind gusts and
large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Localized flash
flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-271930-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
317 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>010-NYZ068-070>075-078-080-176>179-271930-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Putnam-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
317 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area in a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms. The main threats are damaging wind gusts
and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-271930-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
317 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ335-338-355-271930-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
317 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area in a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms. The main threats are damaging wind gusts and
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
144 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NYZ067-261830-
Orange NY-
144 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Orange
County through 230 PM EDT...

At 143 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hartwood to near Middletown. Movement was
north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Port Jervis, Howells, Cuddebackville, Otisville, Huguenot,
Unionville, Deerpark, Westtown and Slate Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7472 4150 7448 4155 7444 4158 7440
      4157 7440 4128 7452 4136 7470 4137 7469
      4139 7471 4140 7474 4143 7474 4143 7476
      4145 7476 4146 7475 4149 7476
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 194DEG 26KT 4152 7474 4142 7448

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
218 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NYZ068>071-261900-
Putnam NY-Rockland NY-Southern Westchester NY-
Northern Westchester NY-
218 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Westchester, Putnam
and Rockland Counties through 300 PM EDT...

At 218 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Peekskill to White Plains. Movement was north
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ossining, Peekskill, Haverstraw, Tarrytown, Mount Kisco, Dobbs Ferry,
Mahopac, Lake Carmel, Nyack, Carmel, Bronxville, Hawthorne, Upper
Nyack, Bedford and Yorktown Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 7358 4111 7370 4110 7373 4109 7372
      4093 7383 4123 7402 4150 7388 4151 7369
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 192DEG 33KT 4129 7389 4103 7377

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

CTZ005-NYZ068-070-261945-
Northern Fairfield CT-Putnam NY-Northern Westchester NY-
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central
Fairfield, northern Westchester and eastern Putnam Counties through
345 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Wingdale to near Danbury. Movement was north at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Danbury, Lake Carmel, Sherman, Brewster, Ridgefield, Brookfield, New
Fairfield, Patterson, Putnam Lake, Brewster Hill and Peach Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 7350 4166 7349 4165 7349 4164 7350
      4153 7345 4150 7344 4149 7344 4151 7340
      4151 7339 4150 7338 4119 7364 4151 7369
      4153 7360 4153 7353 4167 7352
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 193DEG 36KT 4163 7358 4136 7352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
353 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

CTZ005-262030-
Northern Fairfield CT-
353 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Fairfield
County through 430 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bethel, or near Newtown, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Danbury, Newtown, Bethel, Brookfield, New Fairfield and Redding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 7339 4150 7338 4149 7338 4149 7337
      4147 7332 4147 7330 4145 7330 4130 7339
      4142 7354 4150 7344 4149 7344 4151 7340
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 218DEG 33KT 4142 7339

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DBR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
419 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NYZ067-262100-
Orange NY-
419 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Orange
County through 500 PM EDT...

At 419 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Highland Lake to near Unionville. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Middletown, Port Jervis, Howells, Cuddebackville, Otisville,
Huguenot, Unionville, Scotchtown, Deerpark, Mechanicstown, Westtown,
Slate Hill, Pine Bush, Pine Island and Circleville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 7476 4150 7448 4157 7442 4160 7435
      4160 7433 4162 7428 4157 7423 4126 7448
      4136 7469 4137 7469 4139 7471 4140 7474
      4143 7474 4143 7476 4145 7476 4146 7475
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 213DEG 33KT 4152 7486 4127 7460

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JM

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