Wind Advisory 1, NWS Nashville, TN

Bedford County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, Davidson County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Giles County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Macon County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Overton County, TN, Perry County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, Wayne County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

990 
WWUS74 KOHX 190451
NPWOHX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1051 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-191200-
/O.CON.KOHX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230119T1200Z/
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield, 
Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina, 
Byrdstown, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Waverly, New Johnsonville, 
McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, 
Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, 
Gordonsville, Gainesboro, Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, 
Allardt, Linden, Lobelville, Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, 
Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, 
Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta, Crossville, Shelbyville, Tullahoma,
Manchester, McMinnville, Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton, 
Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, and Pulaski
1051 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Middle Tennessee.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

022 
WWUS74 KOHX 190920
NPWOHX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Nashville TN
320 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

TNZ005>009-023>030-056>063-075-093>095-191030-
/O.CAN.KOHX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230119T1200Z/
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Houston-Humphreys-
Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Perry-Hickman-
Lewis-Williamson-Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-Bedford-Wayne-
Lawrence-Giles-
Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield, 
Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Erin, 
Tennessee Ridge, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson, 
Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet,
Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Linden, 
Lobelville, Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood, 
Columbia, Lewisburg, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Woodbury, 
Shelbyville, Clifton, Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, and Pulaski
320 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The winds have decreased below advisory criteria across the
western two thirds of middle TN.

$$

TNZ010-011-031>034-064>066-077>080-191200-
/O.CON.KOHX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230119T1200Z/
Clay-Pickett-Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-De Kalb-White-
Cumberland-Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-
Including the cities of Celina, Byrdstown, Gainesboro, 
Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Smithville, Sparta, 
Crossville, Tullahoma, Manchester, McMinnville, Altamont, 
Coalmont, and Spencer
320 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern third of Middle Tennessee including the
  Cumberland Plateau.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

231 
WWUS74 KOHX 191212
NPWOHX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Nashville TN
612 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

TNZ010-011-031>034-064>066-077>080-191315-
/O.EXP.KOHX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230119T1200Z/
Clay-Pickett-Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-De Kalb-White-
Cumberland-Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-
Including the cities of Celina, Byrdstown, Gainesboro, 
Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Smithville, Sparta, 
Crossville, Tullahoma, Manchester, McMinnville, Altamont, 
Coalmont, and Spencer
612 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The strong winds associated with the wind advisory have moved out
of middle TN. This afternoon southwesterly winds will pick up
again. Winds at times will be as high as 20 mph with higher gusts
up to 35 to 40 mph...especially in higher elevations. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1158 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

Satellite imagery has been interesting this morning. High clouds
continue to stream across the northern 2/3 of the mid-state, but as
the warm front associated with today/tonight's weather system drives
northward, low clouds and dense fog advect northward with it.
Several spots across our southern and southeastern counties have had
visibilities to less than 1/4 mile. For that reason, we issued a
Dense Fog Advisory through 8 am. That warm front will also advect
higher dew points and temperatures through the rest of the morning
hours and by the late morning hours, as the warm front reaches
the KY/TN state line, a few showers will be possible, as well.

By the middle of this afternoon, Middle TN will be ensconced in
the warm sector of this weather system, with dew points climbing
into the low 60s and temperatures well into the upper 60s, much
like yesterday. This is the platform this evening's thunderstorm
potential will have to work with. Current hi-res guidance suggests
a broken line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the TN
River in the 6 to 9 pm time frame. Timing is a little different
from one model to the next, but this should be a good
approximation. As this line moves into Middle TN, there are
indications that it should be weakening as the air mass isn't as
conducive to severe weather as it might be upstream. Forecast
soundings depict wind shear as being impressive, with about 60kts
of deep layer shear and 0-3km helicities in the 400-500 range.
However, with CAPE values in the 200-300 J/Kg range, updrafts
should be rather weak. In addition, saturated atmospheric profiles
should act to limit the realization of any more CAPE. That said,
I think areas west of I-65 will run the risk of a strong wind gust
or two. What can change to make this a more severe event? It's
going to be windy today. Southerly wind gusts of 35-40 mph could
provide higher dew points and given an earlier arrival time of the
line to feed off of this afternoon's warmer temperatures, a few
storms in the line could reach severe criteria. So, this is going
to be a tell-tale. The later the line arrives, temperatures will
be cooling from afternoon highs and this will provide less
instability to feed off of. For now, we'll be highlighting the
idea of a couple 45-60 mph wind gusts possible west of I-65 and
expect the line to be weakening even further by the time it reach
the I-65 corridor. Rainfall amounts look to be about the same as
we've been advertising the last few nights: 1 to 2 inches possible
with only localized flooding issues.

What's left of tonight's showers and storms should be off the
Plateau by sunrise Thursday and without a cold front passage
expected until Thursday night, temperatures should still be well
above normal Thursday afternoon, though few degrees cooler than
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

Friday and most of Saturday should prove to be dry and much cooler --
though nothing to incredibly cold. Back towards normal values.
However, by Saturday night, our third weather system of the week
should be working into Middle TN. The surface low associated with
this system looks to be well south of the area, so at this time, I
only expect showers Saturday night and Sunday, but we'll need to
watch the trajectory of the upper low. If it stays on it's current
path, *some* wintry weather may be possible Sunday evening. More on
that as we get closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

Cigs are IFR/LIFR at all terminals with vsbys slowly increasing
as fog lifts. Expect cigs to stay MVFR/borderline IFR with
bouncing vsbys as rain showers spread east starting at 06Z. Winds
are SE and will be shifting to the SW with gusts between 20-30 kts
as the front moves through. VFR conditions return after 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  56  65  35 /  40  90   0   0
Clarksville    67  54  61  33 /  80 100   0   0
Crossville     62  53  61  32 /  10  90  70   0
Columbia       69  53  64  32 /  40 100   0   0
Cookeville     66  56  63  35 /  20  90  50   0
Jamestown      62  53  62  32 /  10  90  70   0
Lawrenceburg   68  54  64  33 /  30 100   0   0
Murfreesboro   70  54  65  32 /  30 100   0   0
Waverly        67  52  60  32 /  70 100   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Baggett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
228 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-190830-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
228 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Patchy dense fog will be possible through 8 am this morning,
especially south of I-40. Please use caution during the morning
commute as visibilities could drop below 1/4 mile quickly.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across Middle Tennessee
tonight. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe between 6
pm and midnight, mainly west of I-65. The main concern is strong
gusty winds of 45 to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No severe weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local and
state guidelines.

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