Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
623 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Current regional mosaic showing The large area of showers and storms
moving southward across KY. We also see a developing complex across
se MO and northern AR. NBS pop data has been ticking upward and the
latest Hrrr and nam nest data showing increasing confidence levels
as well. So, the showers and storms across KY will impact our area
beginning around 2 PM or so. The developing complex west of the MS
river will be gaining strength and will intensify the existing
complex as it reach our area this evening. Furthermore, latest
instability parameters showing the most favorable areas across
across western TN and extending into our western and northwestern
areas. The higher downdraft capes are situated along the TN River at
this time. The storms to our north do have an earlier history of
some low end wind damage across northern KY. SPC has recently
upgraded basically our entire western half from marginal to slight
risk of severe. Wind and hail still look to be the likely threat
beginning this afternoon and into this evening.

Additionally to all of this is the potential for some localized
flooding in our northwest this evening and overnight. This will
depend largely on the trajectory of the aforementioned complex to
our west. If this can slam into the western flank of the southward
moving system, rainfall amounts will likely be enhanced. As it
stands right now, 2 inches of rainfall could be rather common across
our northwest by sunrise Monday. Local amounts of 3 inches can not
be ruled out. Note that there is not enough confidence to hoist a
flood watch. Also, understand that the short term model qpf maximums
are rather isolated and across our northwest. There also appears to
be some uncertainty as to the arrival of the developing MCS to our
west.

Moving on, the mcs pattern will remain into Monday as another system
moves through. The airmass will need to refuel in order for a second
round of severe to be possible. This looks somewhat questionable.
We are in a marginal for now. The primary cold front should move
through on Tuesday. We are not outlooked at this time. Improving
conditions will begin Tuesday night.

For the near term temps, it will be rather soupy and warm for early
May. Lows in the 60s with highs lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

In the extended forecast, models are a little more bullish with
leaning toward some upper ridging for our area. There is some
progressiveness and the ridge looks rather narrow in scope. That
said, some shortwave impacts cannot be ruled out for Thursday and
Friday. We will see our shower and tstm chances climb into the
chance category for that time frame. Otw, continued mild and soupy.
Lows 60 to 65 and highs 80 to 85.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Radar trends indicate convection, some of which may be on the
strong side will impact BNA, MQY and CKV early in the TAF period,
with SRB and CSV seeing impacts a few hours later. Expect VIS
reduction to IFR/LIFR with possible MVFR CIGS with the storms.
Overnight some clearing is anticipated but showers and
thunderstorms may be in the area, with another round moving
through in the morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  85  67  83 /  70  60  50  70
Clarksville    64  85  65  80 /  80  70  40  40
Crossville     59  76  62  78 /  70  70  60  80
Columbia       64  83  65  84 /  70  50  40  60
Cookeville     62  78  63  79 /  70  70  60  80
Jamestown      59  77  61  78 /  70  70  70  70
Lawrenceburg   64  82  65  83 /  70  50  40  60
Murfreesboro   63  82  64  83 /  70  60  50  70
Waverly        63  83  64  81 /  70  50  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....05

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