Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
218 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

As advertised, a few strong storms are moving across Middle
Tennessee right now. Storms have remained below severe limits;
they've just been loud. The bulk of this low pressure system is
now affecting Middle Tennessee with a general northeastward
movement with the storm. Current models show the highest SBCAPE
values are over the southeastern quadrant of the CWA, ranging
from 550-650 J/Kg with a ribbon of 400 J/Kg over the Nashville
metro area. Until this energy fuses out, we'll continue to monitor
in the event a rogue storm tries to blossom. Helicity and shear
values have dropped off significantly, so any stronger storms that
try to bud will not have much updraft support. Storms should move
out of Middle Tennessee later this morning with a few spotty
showers possible this afternoon. As the day progresses, clouds
will decrease in coverage and overnight lows will be in the upper
40s.

Two upper level lows will bring another round of rain across the
area Saturday. The majority of the rain will come from the upper
low lifting out of the Great Plains. It looks like we will get the
tail end of the showers from the upper low over the Great Lakes.
Severe weather is not expected. QPF values range anywhere from
0.10" to 0.25", so rain showers will generally be light.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Showers will linger into the overnight hours Saturday, coming to
an end by Sunday morning. After these showers end, the remainder
of Sunday will be dry and breezy thanks to a tight surface
pressure gradient caused by the strengthening surface low
pressure system over the Great Lakes. Gusts of up to 25mph will be
possible through the afternoon.

The new work week is shaping up to a beautiful one as high
pressure dominates. Winds will have a northerly component to them,
so temperatures will be on the cooler side for this time of year.
Highs will be in the mid 60s to start out with a slow warming
trend through the week. Return flow Thursday will bring moisture
levels back up and temperatures by that point will be back in the
upper 70s. Rain chances come back into the forecast Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...IFR/LIFR ceilings conditions should persists at
all terminals thru 28/14Z-28/15Z. Afterwards, a transition to
MVFR to VFR ceilings with ceiling errosion expected around 29/00Z.
Due to general scattered nature of convection, mentioned VCSH,
because confidence not high enough for terminal development or
movement across to mention in prevailing group. Slow veering of
initial sfc S winds to W/NW by 29/06Z. IFR/MVFR fog potential
thru 29/15Z. Sfc wind speeds less 10kts expected thru 29/06Z also.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  51  75  52 /  40   0  30  30
Clarksville    69  50  71  48 /  10  10  30  20
Crossville     68  46  72  50 /  50  10  50  50
Columbia       71  50  74  51 /  10   0  30  30
Cookeville     69  48  72  51 /  50   0  40  40
Jamestown      68  46  72  50 /  60   0  50  50
Lawrenceburg   71  51  74  52 /  10   0  40  40
Murfreesboro   72  49  75  51 /  40   0  40  40
Waverly        68  50  71  49 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....JB Wright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
232 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

TNZ059>062-075-280800-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Bedford TN-Maury TN-Marshall TN-
232 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Marshall, southwestern Rutherford, central Maury, southeastern
Williamson and northwestern Bedford Counties through 300 AM CDT...

At 231 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Columbia, moving east at 70 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Spring Hill, Nolensville, Mount Pleasant, Thompson's
Station, Chapel Hill, Eagleville, I-65 East Of Columbia, Triune,
Santa Fe, Rover, Williamsport and Unionville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 39 and 61.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 27 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 8720 3569 8726 3593 8664 3555 8645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 257DEG 62KT 3563 8713

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Baggett

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