Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Over the next few days, a ridge extending from the Southern Plains
to Upper Midwest will build toward Middle TN. This will bring a
warming trend with generally low rain chances. There will be a few
disturbances that ride along the periphery of the ridge resulting
in the potential for a few thunderstorms, mainly in the heat of
the late afternoon and early evening each day. For today, there
will be scattered coverage of storms, in the 20-40 percent range.
We are not expecting severe wx, but of course any summertime
thunderstorm can produce very local downpours and gusty winds.
Rain chances will be lower for Friday and Saturday as the ridge
strength increases. Chances will be about 20 percent Friday. The
latest NBM (model blend) does not show any pops at all Saturday,
but a very isolated storm cannot be completely ruled out.

Temperatures will be slightly on the warm side of normal, but
nothing extreme or unusual. Humidity will not be bad at all for
this time of year. Heat index values will be near the actual
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase for Sunday as a low
pressure system approaches from the Mid Ms Valley. A swath of
deep moisture and greater instability will bring the likelihood
for widespread rainfall and perhaps a few severe storms by late
Sunday. Sunday evening will be our main concern for weekend events
across the area.

The low pressure system will then drift southeastward across TN
Monday into Tuesday. this will keep a good deal of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches
will be common from Sunday through Tuesday.

The GFS moves the low away Wednesday, but the ECMWF keeps the low
hanging over the area with unsettled conditions through all of
next week. Low confidence this far ahead, but the upper level
pattern across the U.S. does look stagnant, so we may end up with
wetter than normal conditions throughout next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Scattered storms have developed in the vicinity of BNA/MQY.
Keeping VCTS for now, but may need to amend on storm trajectories
over the next few hours. Some patchy fog is possible at SRB
overnight, but outside of storms that may provide MVFR to IFR
conditions for short periods of time, VFR should mostly prevail
for this TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  92  63  90 /  10  10   0  10
Clarksville    65  91  60  89 /   0  10   0   0
Crossville     59  82  54  81 /  20  20   0   0
Columbia       64  91  61  89 /  10  10   0  10
Cookeville     62  86  57  83 /  10  20   0   0
Jamestown      61  83  55  81 /  10  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   63  89  60  88 /  10  10   0  10
Murfreesboro   64  92  60  89 /  10  20  10  10
Waverly        64  91  60  89 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Unger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

TNZ027-059-151830-
Williamson TN-Davidson TN-
1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Davidson and central Williamson Counties through 130 PM CDT...

At 1255 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Bellevue, or 7 miles northwest of Franklin, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Brentwood, Spring Hill, Thompson's Station, Leipers Fork
and Natchez Trace At Highway 96.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 55 and 70.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 22 and 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 8668 3575 8689 3576 8694 3577 8693
      3578 8693 3578 8694 3577 8694 3577 8695
      3578 8695 3578 8696 3577 8697 3597 8711
      3608 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 318DEG 13KT 3597 8697

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Rose