Alert archive / Tennessee / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2023

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Nashville, TN

May 18, 2023Rutherford County, Tennessee

NWS Nashville, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 18, 2023, 5:48 PM CDT for Rutherford County, Tennessee. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 18, 2023, 5:48 PM CDT (22:48 UTC)
Expired: May 18, 2023, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Nashville, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Rutherford County, TN

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 298 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 308 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -33 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 540 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 19 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 18, 1:55 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 18, 1:55 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
155 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

An upper-level low is slowly trekking east across Tennessee this
afternoon and will provide decent forcing for a few thunderstorms
to blossom later this afternoon. Hi-res models suggest most
convection will remain south of I-40 and east of I-65. While a few
of these storms could be strong, the severe threat is very low
due to the lack of deep layer shear. CAPE values are generally
between 500-1000 J/Kg with the higher values across the southern
portion of the cwa. With the instability present, storms that do
develop could produce heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds.
Organized severe weather is not expected. Once we lose the daytime
heating factor, instability will decrease and storm activity will
come to an end. Look for overnight lows in the low to mid 60s
with a southerly wind kicking in ahead of the next front. Friday
will start out dry, but a trough currently set up over the Great
Lakes will push a cold front across Middle Tennesse late Friday
night. While a few pop-up storms will be possible during the
afternoon, a more organized line will push through along the cold
front Friday night. The greatest chance for any stronger storm
potential looks to be west of I-65 where instability is higher. As
the storms progress east, the instability becomes less and less
so the threat for severe storms is much lower across the eastern
half of the cwa. Storms will clear the area by late Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

Surface high pressure will build in behind the cold front, keeping
conditions dry for the remainder of Saturday through Sunday.
Models are holding on to a shortwave that will swing across the
southeast Monday, but placement of the shortwave varies depending
on the model, so going with low chance PoPs for now. For the new
work week, models are kind of all over the place in terms of the
upper-air pattern. A few models show closed-off lows at 500mb, but
they are in different locations. The general thinking is generic
pop-up storms will be possible during most afternoons due to
daytime heating and available moisture, but for now, nothing
significant is showing up in the models. Temperatures will slowly
increase throughout the week, starting out with upper 70s this
weekend and ending in the upper 80s by the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

Models indicate some convection will start popping early this
afternoon with impacts likely at SRB and CSV. MQY, BNA, and CKV
may see some VCTS, but any activity will wane after sunset. Winds
from the northeast will veer around to the southeast early this
afternoon with speeds of 5-10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  80  65  76 /  40  50  70  70
Clarksville    63  81  63  76 /  10  50  60  50
Crossville     56  75  58  70 /  40  20  80  90
Columbia       62  78  63  75 /  40  30  70  80
Cookeville     58  77  61  71 /  40  30  80  80
Jamestown      56  76  59  70 /  50  30  80  80
Lawrenceburg   62  78  63  74 /  40  30  80  80
Murfreesboro   60  79  62  75 /  30  30  80  80
Waverly        61  80  62  75 /  10  50  60  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....05

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 18, 4:55 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 18, 4:57 PM CDT, 51 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
457 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

TNZ062-075-077-182230-
Rutherford TN-Coffee TN-Bedford TN-
457 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Rutherford, northwestern Coffee and northeastern Bedford Counties
through 530 PM CDT...

At 456 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Manchester, or 5 miles east of Bell Buckle. This
storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beechgrove.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 92 and 105.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8620 3561 8636 3573 8626 3561 8607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 232DEG 4KT 3561 8623

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger

Special weather statement, May 18, 5:08 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
508 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

TNZ075-182245-
Bedford TN-
508 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Bedford
County through 545 PM CDT...

At 507 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shelbyville, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Wartrace, Bell Buckle, Normandy, Raus and Deason.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 8646 3536 8649 3535 8653 3536 8654
      3537 8659 3563 8648 3561 8636 3554 8625
      3541 8625 3541 8629 3539 8630 3538 8633
      3536 8633 3536 8636 3535 8637 3535 8641
      3532 8642
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 217DEG 11KT 3546 8638

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shamburger

Special weather statement, May 18, 5:17 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
517 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

TNZ062-063-077-182245-
Cannon TN-Rutherford TN-Coffee TN-
517 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Rutherford, northwestern Coffee and southwestern Cannon Counties
through 545 PM CDT...

At 517 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Murfreesboro, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bradyville and Readyville.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 86 and 95.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 8622 3572 8638 3590 8627 3573 8604
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 216DEG 8KT 3573 8625

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger

Special weather statement, May 18, 5:19 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
519 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

TNZ064-182245-
De Kalb TN-
519 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central De Kalb
County through 545 PM CDT...

At 519 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Smithville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Smithville, Dowelltown and Liberty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3594 8567 3586 8589 3586 8590 3595 8600
      3610 8590
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 219DEG 11KT 3594 8589

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger

Special weather statement, May 18, 5:43 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
543 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

TNZ062-182330-
Rutherford TN-
543 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Rutherford
County through 630 PM CDT...

At 543 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Murfreesboro, or near Christiana. This storm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Christiana, Fosterville and Rockvale.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 79 and 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 8658 3588 8637 3586 8618 3571 8621
      3566 8634 3566 8635 3564 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 223DEG 2KT 3569 8636

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger

The office that day

Everything else NWS Nashville, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 18, 4:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Warren	34 min
May 18, 4:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Bedford	26 min
May 18, 4:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	DeKalb	23 min
May 18, 4:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Cannon	35 min
May 18, 4:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Coffee	33 min
May 18, 5:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Bedford	37 min
May 18, 5:15 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Cannon, DeKalb	105 min
May 18, 5:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Cannon	28 min
May 18, 5:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	DeKalb	26 min
May 18, 5:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Rutherford	47 min
May 18, 5:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	DeKalb, Overton, Putnam	24 min
May 18, 6:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Rutherford	30 min
May 18, 6:18 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	DeKalb, Overton, Putnam	102 min
May 18, 6:32 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OHX	Putnam	3 hr
May 18, 6:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Rutherford	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Tennessee, 2023 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.