Alert archive / Tennessee / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2023

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Nashville, TN

May 7, 2023Dickson County, Houston County, Humphreys County, Tennessee

NWS Nashville, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 7, 2023, 5:51 PM CDT for Dickson County, Houston County, Humphreys County, Tennessee. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 7, 2023, 5:51 PM CDT (22:51 UTC)
Expired: May 7, 2023, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 24 min
Issued by: NWS Nashville, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Dickson County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN

The radar

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 117 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -332 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 802 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 189 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 303 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 7, 2:16 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 7, 2:16 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
216 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Current regional mosaic showing The large area of showers and storms
moving southward across KY. We also see a developing complex across
se MO and northern AR. NBS pop data has been ticking upward and the
latest Hrrr and nam nest data showing increasing confidence levels
as well. So, the showers and storms across KY will impact our area
beginning around 2 PM or so. The developing complex west of the MS
river will be gaining strength and will intensify the existing
complex as it reach our area this evening. Furthermore, latest
instability parameters showing the most favorable areas across
across western TN and extending into our western and northwestern
areas. The higher downdraft capes are situated along the TN River at
this time. The storms to our north do have an earlier history of
some low end wind damage across northern KY. SPC has recently
upgraded basically our entire western half from marginal to slight
risk of severe. Wind and hail still look to be the likely threat
beginning this afternoon and into this evening.

Additionally to all of this is the potential for some localized
flooding in our northwest this evening and overnight. This will
depend largely on the trajectory of the aforementioned complex to
our west. If this can slam into the western flank of the southward
moving system, rainfall amounts will likely be enhanced. As it
stands right now, 2 inches of rainfall could be rather common across
our northwest by sunrise Monday. Local amounts of 3 inches can not
be ruled out. Note that there is not enough confidence to hoist a
flood watch. Also, understand that the short term model qpf maximums
are rather isolated and across our northwest. There also appears to
be some uncertainty as to the arrival of the developing MCS to our
west.

Moving on, the mcs pattern will remain into Monday as another system
moves through. The airmass will need to refuel in order for a second
round of severe to be possible. This looks somewhat questionable.
We are in a marginal for now. The primary cold front should move
through on Tuesday. We are not outlooked at this time. Improving
conditions will begin Tuesday night.

For the near term temps, it will be rather soupy and warm for early
May. Lows in the 60s with highs lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

In the extended forecast, models are a little more bullish with
leaning toward some upper ridging for our area. There is some
progressiveness and the ridge looks rather narrow in scope. That
said, some shortwave impacts cannot be ruled out for Thursday and
Friday. We will see our shower and tstm chances climb into the
chance category for that time frame. Otw, continued mild and soupy.
Lows 60 to 65 and highs 80 to 85.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

At 18Z watching a northern MCS coming down from KY. More is
expected to develop later this afternoon. This will mean ample
showers and thunderstorms in and around the TAF sites through the
overnight hours. Tried to time the best -TSRA with a TEMPO group
for the TAF sites. CIGs/VIS are currently VFR expect this to
become MVFR/IFR in and around the stronger storms. Gusty S winds
turning a bit SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  85  67  83 /  70  60  50  70
Clarksville    64  85  65  80 /  80  70  40  40
Crossville     59  76  62  78 /  70  70  60  80
Columbia       64  83  65  84 /  70  50  40  60
Cookeville     62  78  63  79 /  70  70  60  80
Jamestown      59  77  61  78 /  70  70  70  70
Lawrenceburg   64  82  65  83 /  70  50  40  60
Murfreesboro   63  82  64  83 /  70  60  50  70
Waverly        63  83  64  81 /  70  50  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....12

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 7, 4:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 7, 4:54 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 7, 5:11 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 7, 5:43 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
543 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HAIL             2 NW VANLEER            36.26N 87.46W
05/07/2023  E1.00 INCH       DICKSON            TN   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL AT THE INTERSECTION
            OF HWY 49 AND SLAYTON-MARION RD.

&&

Special weather statement, May 7, 5:47 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
547 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

TNZ027-072315-
Davidson TN-
547 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Davidson
County through 615 PM CDT...

At 546 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Belle Meade, or near Nashville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Nashville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Bellevue, Berry Hill,
Bells Bend and Percy Priest Lake.

Those in the downtown Nashville area are in the path of this storm
and should prepare for lightning.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 197 and 219.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 77 and 92.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 41 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 8677 3612 8659 3604 8683 3605 8689
      3611 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 233DEG 17KT 3610 8687

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

10

Special weather statement, May 7, 5:49 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
549 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

TNZ025>027-059-072315-
Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-
549 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Davidson, eastern Dickson, northwestern Williamson and southeastern
Cheatham Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 549 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
White Bluff, or 10 miles northeast of Dickson, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland City, White Bluff, Kingston Springs, Pegram and Burns.

This includes Interstate 40 near mile marker 180, and between mile
markers 182 and 195.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8732 3624 8730 3633 8696 3600 8698
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 265DEG 15KT 3616 8721

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

10

The office that day

Everything else NWS Nashville, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 7, 2:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Macon	27 min
May 7, 2:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Fentress	18 min
May 7, 3:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Montgomery	33 min
May 7, 3:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Putnam	35 min
May 7, 4:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Houston	25 min
May 7, 4:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Robertson	36 min
May 7, 5:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Houston	34 min
May 7, 5:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cheatham, Dickson, Houston, Montgomery	30 min
May 7, 5:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Houston, Humphreys	32 min
May 7, 5:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Davidson	28 min
May 7, 5:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Cheatham	26 min
May 7, 5:51 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Dickson, Houston, Humphreys, Montgomery, Stewart	3 hr
May 7, 5:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Sumner, Trousdale	35 min
May 7, 6:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Cannon	29 min
May 7, 6:21 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Wilson	4 hr
May 7, 6:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Davidson	39 min
May 7, 6:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Davidson, Rutherford, Williamson, Wilson	18 min
May 7, 6:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Dickson	32 min
May 7, 6:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	White	36 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Tennessee, 2023 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.