Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
209 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday Night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

We've been totally quiet across Middle TN this morning but things
are a'changin'. Cloud streaks signifying stable air across the mid-
south this morning have given way to growing cumulus over West TN
and areas west of I-65 in Middle TN. This signifies the airmass is
becoming ripe for convective development. Dew points are running in
the low to mid 60s and with temperatures into the 80s across all of
Middle TN, surface based CAPE values have surged into the quadruple
digits this afternoon. Even the 18Z special sounding we did at OHX
has sfc CAPE at 900 J/Kg already. Shear values are sufficient for
updraft organization and with the line of thunderstorms already
crossing the Mississippi River and headed this way, they will be
heading into an air mass that will continue to be supportive of
severe storms. As the hours tick by and surface winds veer to the
southwest, I think the tornado risk lessens, but does not go away.
This means damaging straight line winds will be the main threat with
the line as it crosses the TN River in the next couple of hours,
along with lapse rates that are supportive of large hail -- and is
why the watch that has been issued is a SVR Watch with tornadoes
mentioned versus a straight Tornado Watch. Please DO NOT drop your
guard just because this isn't a Tornado Watch. An isolated tornado
is still possible and with the wind threat as it is, a gust to 65
mph against high profile vehicles or trees can cause just as much
trouble. In addition, this watch currently does not cover all of the
Cumberland Plateau as we feel the instability and shear should drop
off by 8 or 9 pm and greatly reduce any severe storms.

The storms moving into Middle TN this afternoon are associated with
a pre-frontal trough and as this trough moves across the area, once
this initial line of storms moves through, the severe threat
(wind/hail/tor) should end. However, we're not out of the woods by
any means. Models across the board are supportive of the actual cold
front, due to move through Middle TN slowly tonight, will provide a
focusing mechanism for heavy rainfall. Current forecasts continue to
highlight 2-3 inches across a swath of Middle TN, but hi-res
guidance shows the potential for an axis of 4-5 inches in a few
spots. Where that axis sets up exactly could sway 20-30 miles north
or south, but our thinking currently has it centered in a Flood
Watch that will come out with this afternoon's forecast package and
run through about noon tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

There's decent model consensus that we're in for a prolonged rain
event, even beyond 18Z tomorrow, which is how long the Flood Watch
runs. The problem is what locations continue to see the rain. Right
now, it looks to be the far east and south, outside of the current
watch. We'll continue to assess whether a watch needs to be extended
to these areas after we see where the heaviest rains fall tonight.

Once we get the rain out of here, maybe as late as Friday night, we
should be dry for several days with spring-like temperatures through
the middle of next week. After that, another warm up is in store.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

VFR conditions continue for now. A line of SHRA/TSRA will move
through the area mainly after 22Z, with continuing SHRA through
much of the current TAF period. Expect for cig and vis drop, with
widespread MVFR/IFR cigs after 06Z. Gusty S/SW winds will continue
through at least 03Z, with winds quickly becoming northerly after
the frontal passage thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      51  56  47  59 / 100  90  30  30
Clarksville    48  54  44  60 / 100  70  20  10
Crossville     57  66  44  56 /  70  70  60  60
Columbia       50  57  45  59 / 100  80  40  40
Cookeville     53  61  46  58 /  90  90  40  50
Jamestown      52  61  43  56 /  90  90  40  40
Lawrenceburg   52  60  47  59 /  90  80  50  50
Murfreesboro   52  59  46  59 / 100  90  40  40
Waverly        46  53  44  59 / 100  70  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
afternoon for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Davidson-De Kalb-
Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Overton-Perry-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-
Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Adcock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
314 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

TNZ024-025-057-052100-
Hickman TN-Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-
314 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Dickson, east central Humphreys and north central Hickman Counties
through 400 PM CDT...

At 314 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Centerville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Burns, Charlotte, Bon Aqua and Pinewood.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 155 and 176.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 8754 3597 8766 3622 8741 3609 8727
      3595 8727
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 233DEG 40KT 3595 8752

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

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