Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
102 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday Night)
Issued at 102 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

The forecast is on track with what will likely be an active
afternoon and evening. A 998 mb low is sitting over the Great
Lakes with a cold front stretching south through IN into AR. Dew
points in our area are up into the low 60s and we will continue to
see dew points into the mid 60s advect north ahead of the
approaching cold front. Scattered convection continues to become
more widespread over west TN along the front. Thunderstorms are
starting to push into our NW counties and will continue to push
east and should reach the Nashville metro between 4:30-7 PM and
the Cumberland Plateau after 6 PM.

MLCAPE ahead of the front is 500-1000 j/km on Meso Analysis and
0-6 km shear is greater than 50 knots. This will support
organized thunderstorms. Given the high shear wind will be the
primary threat with any of the stronger cells. We do see 0-1 km
shear 20-35 knots and this would support the potential for a few
tornadoes. The tornado threat does cover the entire area but looks
slightly more favorable along and west of I-24 where the highest
CAPE is expected. Profiles west of I-24 also look to remain a bit
more capped which will lower the tornado potential. Small hail is
likely with any thunderstorms but severe hail looks to remain on
the lower side as there isn't a ton of CAPE in the hail growth
zone.

Periods of heavy rain will be possible with thunderstorms also.
Rain totals across the area through the evening are looking to be
0.50-1.25" in the northwest to 1.25-2.0" in the southwest. The
majority of the precip will exit the area by midnight but a few
showers may linger overnight in eastern areas.

Be sure to monitor the weather today especially if you have
outdoor plans and have a plan to seek safe shelter if storms hit.

Cold air will be working in behind the front and we will see much
cooler temperatures on Sunday with highs only in the 40s. The
trough axis will be working through Middle TN during the afternoon
but moisture will be lacking and no precip is expected. Overnight
lows Sunday night will be chilly falling into the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 102 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Much quieter weather is expected for the rest of the week as zonal
flow develops. Temperatures for start of the week will remain
cold but will gradually warm throughout the week pushing back to
near seasonal norms by the middle of the week. An upper level
trough will kick out of the four corners region late week and that
will bring the return of rain chances next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Strong storms will be moving through Middle TN this afternoon and
evening. Expect all terminals to experience strong gusty winds,
reduced visibilities, MVFR cigs, and lightning as this wave moves
from west to east from around 2PM to 11PM. Cigs will be slow to lift
after the passage of the front. Light rain may stick around through
early Sunday morning, then begin to clear off later in the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      38  46  28  49 / 100  20   0   0
Clarksville    36  43  26  48 /  50  10   0   0
Crossville     36  44  23  42 / 100  70   0   0
Columbia       38  45  26  49 / 100  30   0   0
Cookeville     37  43  25  43 / 100  60   0   0
Jamestown      36  43  24  41 / 100  60   0   0
Lawrenceburg   38  45  26  48 / 100  40   0   0
Murfreesboro   38  46  25  48 / 100  40   0   0
Waverly        35  44  26  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Whitehead

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
137 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     Tornado          10 N Cumberland City    36.52N 87.67W
12/09/2023                   Stewart            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Powerlines down and debris in the road on
            Red Top Road north of Indian Mound. Debris
            signature was noted on radar. Time estimated
            by radar.

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
153 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     Tornado          4 NE Woodlawn           36.59N 87.45W
12/09/2023                   Montgomery         TN   Broadcast Media

            Webcam shows tornado and many reports. First
            observed debris on radar here.

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
154 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     Tornado          4 NNW Clarksville       36.61N 87.38W
12/09/2023                   Montgomery         TN   Public

            Tornado continues across northern portions
            of Clarksville, TN.

&&

RRH