Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
641 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

A few showers have popped up over the last couple of hours as some
upper level support noses into the area. The surface front that
will sweep through the area later today is still back in central
Arkansas. CAMS are showing scattered storms developing around mid
to late morning either in a SW to NE orientation ahead of the
surface front. The wind energy in place is impressive for early
August with a 30-40 kts LLJ and a 80-90 jet streak at 300 mb. This
translates to 40-45 kts of effective bulk shear in the late
morning to early afternoon time frame. In addition to that, mlCAPE
values ahead of the storms will be in the 2500-3500 J/kg range. I
suspect when storms initially develop, they will exhibit some
supercellular characteristics with rotating updrafts and
impressive cores. Large hail will certainly be possible along with
damaging winds. Hodographs are unidirectional with SW surface
winds and a SW LLJ. This should limit the tornado threat, but a
tornado cannot be ruled out along the plateau. The initial cells
that develop will quickly cold pool into a line of storms with the
threat shifting more toward damaging winds. The line of storms
are expected to clear the area by mid afternoon. Behind the
frontal passage conditions will be breezy with westerly winds
around 15-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.

The rest of the short term forecast will be much calmer. Lows
tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s. With the cooler
temperatures and light wind, patchy fog will likely develop.
Tuesday looks to be the nicest day we'll have over the forecast
period with plenty of sun and highs mainly in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

The quiet weather won't last long as a shortwave will pass through
the area on Wednesday with another wave of showers and storms.
Models again show a large amount of instability with decent shear.
A few storms could reach severe limits with damaging winds being
the greatest threat. On Thursday another shortwave will be on the
heels of Wednesday's wave. Once again, there appears to be ample
shear and instability in place for some severe storms with
damaging winds. Rain chances will go down on Friday without a
substantial wave moving through the area. Regardless, some
isolated showers and storms will still be possible. Scattered
storm chances will continue into the weekend. As far as
temperatures, highs are expected to be around normal or a couple
degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Scattered thunderstorms are impacting terminals this morning with
low clouds accompanying them. A line of thunderstorms is expected
to develop later this morning between 16Z-18Z and will primarily
impact CSV And SRB. Wind gusts up to 40+ kts will be possible as
storms move through with lowered vsbys due to heavy rain. VCTS is
in at BNA and MQY as storm coverage will be less near those
terminals. Outside of the storms, sustained southerly winds will
be between 10-15kts with gusts up to 30kts possible for most of
the day. Once the front moves through, winds will shift out of the
WNW, going calm by the overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  68  86  69 /  40  10  10  20
Clarksville    87  65  86  68 /  20  10  10  20
Crossville     81  61  78  61 /  90  10  10  20
Columbia       88  66  85  68 /  50  10  10  30
Cookeville     84  63  80  65 /  80  10  10  20
Jamestown      82  63  78  63 /  80  10  10  20
Lawrenceburg   88  66  83  67 /  60  10  10  30
Murfreesboro   90  66  86  67 /  60  10  10  20
Waverly        86  64  83  67 /  30   0  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Baggett