Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
156 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday Night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Who ordered the sauna for today? I will be honest, our maximum
temperatures will likely not get as high today as previously
forecasted. Most of the area is currently in the low to mid 90s.
While we still have a few more hours, dew point temps have remain
higher than previously forecasted which has likely limited our
temp potential a bit. Nonetheless, heat indicies have already
reached 105 in several locations this afternoon, with a few
locations reading 109 at the current hour.

Bigger forecast question for the day remains our
shower/thunderstorm chances now through tomorrow morning. CAMs
continue to struggle with the evolution of a MCS currently in
Missouri. Latest guidance does suggest this weakening a bit before
redeveloping a bit closer to our area. If this solution were to
play out, timing for our area would likely be late evening to
overnight. If the current MCS can hold together, that would likely
bringing timing up by a few hours. In addition, already have a
few storms firing across the Upper Cumberland with additional pop-
up thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Surface boundary sits
to our NW, which may provide enough lift to generate some more
storms this afternoon. The storms that have developed so far today
and developed very quickly, producing lightning almost
instantaneously. Luckily, they have also remained sub-severe. We
do have strong enough lapse rates and instability that I wouldn't
rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm or two. Main concern
would be damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of quarters.

Any shower/thunderstorm activity will move out by the morning
hours tomorrow, with a nicer and somewhat cooler day expected.
Will highs still be in the 90s? Of course, it's July...but at
least heat indicies should remain below 100 for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

A somewhat active weather pattern appears to be shaping up for
next week. Upper level trough will remain parked just to our east,
with high pressure to our west. We will remain just on the edge
of the trough, with northwesterly flow driving most of our weather
pattern. Unfortunately this type of set up usually spells
multiple shortwaves for our area, so will likely see showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Pops remain a little low due
to the uncertainty in evolution, but do think this will be a bit
more than our typical summertime pop up situation. Luckily with
this set up it will keep temps closer to normal, with highs in the
low 90s and very manageable dew point temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

VFR conditions early this afternoon with hot and humid
conditions. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible after 21z and
a line of storms may move through the northwestern part of the
area between 23 and 05z. Strong winds, heavy rain, and low
visibility can be expected with any thunderstorms. Thunderstorms
should clear the area by 09z tonight. Breezy westerly winds
gusting up to 18 knots this afternoon shifting north under 10
knots overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  94  72  91 /  30  20  10  10
Clarksville    74  93  70  90 /  30  20  10  10
Crossville     68  86  65  84 /  30  20  10  10
Columbia       73  94  70  91 /  20  30  10  10
Cookeville     70  89  67  86 /  30  20  10   0
Jamestown      69  86  66  84 /  40  10  10   0
Lawrenceburg   72  93  70  90 /  20  30  10  10
Murfreesboro   73  94  70  92 /  30  20  10  10
Waverly        72  92  70  90 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cheatham-
Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-
Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-
Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Adcock
LONG TERM....Adcock
AVIATION.....Mueller

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
302 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

TNZ008>010-029>031-292045-
Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-Clay TN-Jackson TN-Macon TN-Smith TN-
302 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Smith,
northwestern Jackson, northeastern Sumner, west central Clay, Macon
and central Trousdale Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 301 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westmoreland, or 15 miles northwest of Lafayette, moving southeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail. Heavy rain
         will also be possible with this storm.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Gainesboro, Hartsville, Westmoreland, Red Boiling Springs,
Dixon Springs and Pleasant Shade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8582 3637 8562 3635 8616 3665 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 329DEG 21KT 3665 8626

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Mueller