Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Expecting shower and thunderstorm chances to pick up as remainder
of morning hours progress, as an MCS potentially develops within
a continuance of northwesterly flow aloft with surface boundaries
of note across northern and southwest portions of mid state region
also aiding in convective development. Not an absolute by any means,
but consensus of latest CAMs, North American, and global models,
supported also by latest hourly SPC EMC RAP PW & 850 mb moisture
transport vector analysis showing best chances of precipitation this
morning across northern and eastern portions of our area to more of
a shift to southwest to southern portions as late morning into early
afternoon hours progress. With some locations within current flood
watch area having received between three up to six inches of
rainfall from yesterday's rounds of convection, certainly soils will
be saturated, and certainly will continue with previous flood watch
issuance for these and surrounding locations across north and
central portions of mid state region through noon today.
Latest WPC QPF depicting heaviest precipitation amounts, which
will generally occur during morning hours today, for locations
around and east of I-24 Corridor. Wording of current flood watch
continues to be quite reasonable, mentioning that one to two inches
of rainfall will be common, with some locations experiencing more
than three inches of rainfall. Again, there is a chance of a few
strong to severe thunderstorms developing as these rounds of
convection role through our area today, especially if local boundary
interactions help aid convective development and susbstantial CAPE
values can be reached, as good low to mid level lapse rates are
expected with this stronger convection, and SRH values are expected
to be high enough, that tornado formation, although remaining quite
low, can not totally be ruled out. Outside of watch area, certainly
an inch or so of rainfall can be expected. With a more southwesterly
to southern track of showers and thunderstorms across our area
expected at least through late morning into early afternoon hours
today, despite some indication that heat index values, especially
for locations south of I-40 Corridor and west of I-65 Corridor,
particularly locations approaching southern TN River Valley Region,
could potentially range 100 to around 105 degrees, have some
significant doubts that these values will actually be reached.
Thus, as of this time, not planning on issuing an heat advisory
products for these locations this afternoon. Will continue to
mention possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon after rounds of morning convection dissipate. A
significant temperature gradient when it comes to high temperatures
across our area is expected today with highs ranging lower 80s Upper
Cumberland Region to potentially mid 90s far southwest.

Look for best chances of showers and thunderstorms across
southwestern portions of mid state after midnight tonight per a
shortwave passage. Of particular note, a surface summertime cold
front is expected to move into northwestern portions of our area
toward sunrise on Friday. As this surface front sinks slowly
southward as Friday progresses, best chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected across locations generally south of I-40
Corridor as a series of shortwave passages continue to be expected
in a northwesterly flow aloft pattern that will finally become more
zonal in nature as weekend approaches. Potential for stronger
convection on Friday not as great as today. As for temperatures
tonight into Friday, look for lows tonight to be seasonable ranging
upper 60s Cumberland Plateau Region to lower 70s west. Highs on
Friday will be a few degrees below seasonal normal values spanning
the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

There will be some lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
night into Saturday with best potential across southern portions of
our area as surface front finally pushes into deep south by sunrise
on Saturday morning and northwesterly upper level flow once again
becomes established but expected to be dry in nature. From Saturday
night through next Wednesday, dry conditions look to prevail except
for potentially three different time periods. The first time period
will be on Sunday afternoon when a subtle shortwave disturbance is
expected to move across northwestern portions of area within broad
upper level troughing aloft. The second time period will be on
Monday afternoon when another subtle shortwave passage occurs within
shifting eastward broad upper level troughing influences. The third
time period will be on Wednesday afternoon as some low level
moisture is expected to work under under upper level ridging
influences across most of mid state region. These three time periods
will share in common the possibility of bringing isolated showers
and thunderstorms to mid state region.

As for temperatures, per above mentioned frontal passage, expect
quite pleasant temperatures across our area for upcoming weekend
with highs spanning the 80s and lows spanning the 60s. Look for a
slow warmup to temperatures at or even slightly above seasonal
normal values by mid portion of next work week as surface high
pressure influences shift eastward, bringing summertime humid
conditions back to our area once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

A cluster of severe thunderstorms is bearing down on the Nashville
Metro Area, so the first order of business with the 18Z TAF's is
to move these storms across Middle Tennessee. These storms do
contain severe wind gusts, although the storm core(s) will likely
stay north of BNA. We do expect a cessation of the active weather
behind this line. Look for dense fog to develop overnight, along
with low stratus in a few spots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  88  66  85 /  30  60  30  10
Clarksville    73  86  65  84 /  30  30  20  10
Crossville     67  81  63  78 /  30  70  30  20
Columbia       71  88  66  84 /  40  70  40  20
Cookeville     69  83  64  81 /  40  50  30  20
Jamestown      68  81  63  78 /  40  30  20  10
Lawrenceburg   71  87  66  84 /  40  70  40  30
Murfreesboro   71  87  65  85 /  30  70  30  20
Waverly        72  86  66  84 /  40  60  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-
Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Houston-Humphreys-
Jackson-Macon-Montgomery-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Rose

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1258 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Ridgetop                36.40N 86.78W
07/20/2023                   Robertson          TN   Emergency Mngr

            numerous trees and power lines down in the
            Greenbrier and Ridgetop areas.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
129 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Hendersonville     36.30N 86.62W
07/20/2023                   Sumner             TN   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous trees and power lines down across
            southwestern Sumner County. One tree fell
            onto and crushed a house on Raintree Dr.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
129 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

TNZ075-077-201915-
Coffee TN-Bedford TN-
129 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Coffee and
southeastern Bedford Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 129 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shelbyville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Manchester, Tullahoma, Wartrace, Bell Buckle, Normandy,
Hillsboro, Raus, Summitville, Arnold AFB and Woods Reservoir.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 100 and 122.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8600 3534 8603 3536 8615 3534 8620
      3535 8621 3534 8625 3535 8624 3537 8628
      3538 8625 3539 8628 3541 8625 3541 8629
      3536 8634 3542 8654 3561 8643 3555 8591
      3554 8590 3531 8597
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 280DEG 29KT 3550 8638

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Clements