Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

There's still quite a bit of uncertainty as to how things will
exactly unfold thunderstorm wise this afternoon and evening. So
far a few showers developed over Perry County and moved east into
Hickman and Maury Counties. It's apparent that the area really
doesn't have the juicy atmosphere to tap into "just yet" like
what we're observing just west of the Tennessee River in West
Tennessee. No surprise that short range models/CAMs continue to
have a very difficult time handling the ongoing convection in West
Tennessee, so will definitely keep a close eye on radar once
these storms push east into Middle Tennessee. Currently,
instability parameters are quite a bit lower over Middle Tennessee
likely from being worked over with convection last night, but
once again, another wrench gets thrown into the forecast and we
expect this to change rapidly this afternoon.

Regardless of how things evolve, the good news is...it's not
quite as hot, humid, and miserable as yesterday since cloud cover
remains over the area. But just west of the Tennessee River, the
juicy dewpoints aren't far away. So with all that said, I think
staying weather aware is key today especially if you are partaking
in any outdoor activities as there could be storms this
afternoon, somewhat of a break, and then more storms late tonight
especially north.

Northwest flow in the summer is a tricky one so prepare for
damaging wind gusts and hail during the above mentioned time
frames. Not every storm will be severe, but I have no reason to
believe the potential will go away anytime soon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

The center of a high pressure system is still over southern LA/MS,
leaving TN under northwest flow with plenty of atmospheric
moisture available. Overall, do expect today to be fairly similar
to yesterday. Hot temperatures are still expected due to the
influence of high pressure with high temperatures soaring again
into the mid and upper-90's. With high humidity, expect another
round of dangerous heat index values near 105 degrees this
afternoon. Opted to keep the current Heat Advisory as is. A few
places may see heat index values nearing 110 degrees, but it
doesn't look to be long lasting or widespread enough at this time
to upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning.

Otherwise, the other concern today will be another round of
thunderstorms. As has been the theme the past several days,
models and CAMs have provided no help with forecasting convection.
Thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and evening, but
confidence is low in coverage and more specific timing. However,
there will be an abundant amount of instability available for
today's storms. This means that no matter where the storms develop
today, they will have the potential to quickly turn severe.
Damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or greater will be the main threat.

By tonight, an upper-level trough will be tracking eastward into
the Ohio River Valley. This may have enough influence to keep
showers and thunderstorms continuing into the overnight hours, but
it will have more of an influence on Sunday. As it tracks eastward
to our north, the high pressure system finally begins to break
down, and our flow aloft strengthens as it becomes more zonal to
southwesterly. Coverage of thunderstorms looks to increase on
Sunday, and with still an abundant amount of instability and
increasing wind shear, another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms is possible. Damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or
greater is still the main threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

An active weather pattern is on tap through the remainder of the
forecast period with no break in store from the daily rounds of
thunderstorms. A summertime-like pattern is ahead with a Gulf of
Mexico high pressure helping to usher in lots of moisture.
Thunderstorms will be expected each day, with coverage likely
peaking during the afternoon and evening hours with peak heating.
High temperatures will remain hot in the 90's each day. Some
"cooler" temperatures look to be in store by the end of the week
though as a cold front arrives Friday, dropping our temperatures
into the 80's.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Radar trends show a line of strong storms moving through the mid-
state, which will likely impact all TAF sites early in the
forecast period and will amend as needed to capture rapidly
changing trends. Expect gusty west winds in excess of 35kt from
the west, with brief VIS reduction to IFR and MVFR CIGS lasting
about an hour. Afterwards, some showers and thunderstorms may
redevelop through the afternoon and evening based on activity in
west TN and northern AR. Overnight, steady southerly winds will
shift slightly to the southwest and become more gusty after
daybreak.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  95  73  93 /  30  50  40  40
Clarksville    74  93  71  93 /  50  40  30  30
Crossville     67  87  65  84 /  30  70  50  50
Columbia       74  95  70  91 /  20  40  40  50
Cookeville     71  89  67  86 /  30  70  40  40
Jamestown      69  87  66  84 /  30  70  40  40
Lawrenceburg   73  95  69  90 /  20  40  40  50
Murfreesboro   73  95  70  91 /  30  50  40  50
Waverly        74  93  69  91 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-
Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

UPDATE.......Hurley
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....05

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