Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
941 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Adjusted pops slightly given latest radar trends. Thunderstorms
continue across the southwest, with some radar estimates
indicating 2+ inches has fallen with some amounts closer to 3".
Currently have a flood advisory for the area with the heaviest
rainfall so far and there could be some isolated flooding in low
lying / flood prone areas.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to drift slowly
eastward overnight. Given the cloud cover, and for areas that saw
rain earlier in the day, do think we will at least have some
haze/fog overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Most of the convective activity today has been focused along the
plateau. High res models continue to favor the plateau through the
evening hours in addition to the western counties for scattered
showers and storms. A few showers and storms could linger through
the overnight hours as a weak shortwave disturbance approaches the
area. More scattered showers and storms are expected on Wednesday.
There will be plenty of instability across the area but shear will
be on the weak side with effective bulk shear values between 10
and 15 kts. With that said, some isolated instances of gusty winds
with the storms can't be ruled out but widespread severe chances
don't look to be in the cards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

The coverage of showers and storms should be higher on Thursday
as a weak shortwave traverses the quasi zonal upper flow. An
additional wave will pass through on Friday but the timing of the
passage looks like development will favor areas east of I-65 more
so than locations west of I-65. Some drier air will filter into
the area behind Friday's wave but that won't do much for knocking
down PoPs on Saturday as another wave follows in the footsteps.
The zonal flow will also gradually transition to semi-
northwesterly by Sunday with yet another wave and higher PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

All quiet at TAF sites with VFR conditions, but radar trends show
increasing TCU across southwestern Middle Tennessee. Have put in
some VCTS at BNA and MQY this evening, and will monitor further
impacts. Otherwise, expect FG again tonight with similar time
frames and VIS reductions as last night. After 12Z tomorrow,
expect improving VIS with some afternoon shower chances especially
for BNA, MQY, SRB, and CSV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  91  72  90 /  40  50  40  70
Clarksville    72  92  71  89 /  30  30  20  70
Crossville     65  83  65  83 /  50  50  30  60
Columbia       70  90  71  88 /  60  40  40  70
Cookeville     68  86  68  85 /  50  50  40  60
Jamestown      67  84  66  83 /  30  40  30  60
Lawrenceburg   69  89  69  88 /  50  50  40  70
Murfreesboro   70  91  70  90 /  40  50  40  70
Waverly        70  91  70  88 /  40  40  30  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......Adcock
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....05