Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
615 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday Night)
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

Hopefully you got your outdoor chores done today because rain will
spread across the area late this afternoon and evening. Rain
coverage will peak overnight and you may hear a few rumbles of
thunder. We do not expect any strong storms. Rainfall amounts from one
half to 1 inch will be common. The higher end totals, over 1 inch
in some spots, will occur mostly across our southern counties.

Most of the rain will end for areas along and west of I-65 by
lunchtime Sunday as the low pressure system and associated cold
front move east of Middle Tennessee. Showers and areas of drizzle
will linger well into the afternoon for areas east of I-65.
Otherwise, it will be a gray day with temps in the 50s.

Rain showers should be gone by Sunday evening, leaving us with
falling temps, gusty northwest winds, and slowly decreasing
clouds for Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

Monday through Wednesday will bring unseasonably cool air. Dry
conditions are expected with daytime highs mostly below 50 Monday
and Tuesday and in the 50s Wednesday. Frost and freezing temps
are likely area wide Monday night and Tuesday night. "Frost
Advisories" or more probable "Freeze Warnings" will start rolling
out Monday. For Monday through Wednesday, we used cooler
temperatures than out standard blend, especially Tuesday night
when many areas may plunge to the lower to mid 20s!

A brief but pronounced warming trend is in store going into
Thursday, then rain chances return as we go into Friday. Those
rain chances will be associated with a cold front. After that
front passes, we will have another possibly stronger shot of cold
air for next weekend. Forecast models show the colder air setting
up shop for a while. This means we are likely to have winter-like
temperatures as we head into the first day of astronomical spring
on March 20!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

Rain and accompanying low cigs and reduced visibility will remain
in the forecast for all of the overnight hours at all sites. Most
degraded conditions are expected after midnight. After the rain
passes over terminals and moves east between 12 and 18z expect
MVFR to IFR low clouds to hang around. Low clouds may persist into
the afternoon hours, but we should see some drying in the lower
levels as winds turn out of the northwest and drier air begins
moving in around and after 18z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      46  55  35  49 / 100  40   0   0
Clarksville    45  52  32  47 / 100  20   0   0
Crossville     39  52  32  44 / 100  80   0   0
Columbia       46  56  35  49 / 100  50   0   0
Cookeville     43  53  35  46 / 100  70   0   0
Jamestown      39  51  32  44 / 100  70   0   0
Lawrenceburg   47  57  35  49 / 100  50   0   0
Murfreesboro   45  56  35  48 / 100  60   0   0
Waverly        45  52  32  47 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Whitehead