Tornado Warning 44, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
258 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Key Messages:

 - Expect an MCS to roll through the northern forecast area this
   morning. It will be capable of producing damaging winds and
   large hail in addition to locally heavy rainfall as some storms
   may train.

 - Dry conditions expected from later Wednesday through Thursday

 - Small chances for continued precipitation Friday into the
   weekend

Still anticipating a round of severe weather this morning with
approaching convective complex sweeping into the Sand Hills at
2am. Surface analysis places a stationary front just south of the
SD/NE state line and the Missouri River continuing through to near
Blair, NE and into western Iowa. The developing LLJ, evident on
the North Platte VAD wind profile has been helping to pool
moisture along the front and reinvigorate the convection.
Dewpoints across Nebraska and southwest Iowa are sitting in the
70s.

The storm complex is just entering an area of enhanced
instability with CAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Expect updrafts to
become increasingly efficient, tapping into the PWAT values over
1.5". Training storms are also possible along and just north of
the front. Heavy rain is anticipated with rainfall rates of 1-2"
per hour. The progressive nature of the system should prevent
widespread flash flooding, but any training storms may surpass
flash flood guidance. Also concerned about the possibility of
heavy rain coinciding with the morning commute in the Omaha metro.
Low lying areas like downtown Omaha / Saddle Creek area could see
water overwhelm the storm drains or cause hydroplaning.

Primary concern will be the swath of damaging winds with any bow
echos. Wind gusts of 70-80mph are being generated by the 06Z run
of the HRRR and it has been consistent with this for over 24 hours
now. Valentine, NE just recorded at 71mph gust. The latest HRRR run
does keep the swath of strongest winds between Omaha and Sioux
City. Guidance has also been consistent in slowing the gust
speeds as the system enters Iowa. With a cold pool in central
Nebraska evident in the 2am sfc analysis, wonder if this boundary
encourages some convection to take a harder right and drive south
along the western edges of the CWA. I don't believe the strongest
winds will be found here, but will watch for a cell to drive
toward Platte, Butler or Lancaster counties. Also note that the
CAPE gradient pushes a bit farther south (toward the Omaha metro)
than the expected storm track on CAM guidance. It could take a
track that is farther south than the watch would suggest.

Threat of severe weather on Wednesday afternoon has diminished
greatly due to the slower solution playing out this morning. Could
see some development in southeast Nebraska behind the initial
wave, but this solution seems to be the outlier with Kansas and
Missouri expected to have much better chances. Have all but
removed the POPs along the KS/NE state line. Will be a few degrees
cooler this afternoon compared to Tuesday, but with high humidity,
it'll still feel hot with apparent temps managing 90s along and
south of I-80.

Thursday will be mostly dry with a surface high sweeping
southeast. Severe potential Thursday has been greatly reduced,
now focused northeast of the Omaha metro where enough instability
could lead to initiation in a deep shear environment. Most of the
area will be dry before another shortwave sweeps through the area
late on Thursday night. This would be more of a rain/thunder
maker vs. hail and damaging winds.

.THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...

Have maintained the occasional isolated POPs for the weekend. One
of the better chances may be on Sunday night with a shortwave
rounding the Canadian upper low as that low meanders southeast.
Notably, the WPC has posted a day 5 excessive rainfall outlook for
our area for this wave on Sunday night.

Expect seasonal highs through the weekend with lows maybe a few
degrees shy of what they average for mid-July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Timing of the expected convection is becoming a bit clearer.
Expect a large area of storms to march into the area after 7Z.
Storms should reach OFK by 07-08Z, OMA by 10-12Z, and LNK 11-12Z.
Though LNK appears to be less impacted by the strongest portions
of the convection. As these storms approach, expect very strong
winds and large hail as the primary threat. Expect convection to
leave the area by 12-15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Pearson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
313 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-122215-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
313 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe storms are expected during the morning hours of Wednesday.
Damaging wind up to 70 mph is the most likely hazard. Multiple
rounds of thunderstorms may affect the same locations, and these
areas of heavy rain may lead to isolated flash flooding through
daybreak Wednesday. These strong to severe storms will continue to
move southeast through the morning hours Wednesday and into
Missouri and Kansas by late Wednesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Thursday night into
Friday. There are occasional chances of thunderstorms through the
weekend as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation will not be needed but any severe
weather reports overnight are appreciated.

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