Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Key Messages:

 - Enhanced risk for severe storms tonight

 - Thunderstorm chances continue through next weekend

Regional obs were showing an area of low pressure situated over
north-central KS with attendant warm front extending into southeast
NE/s-central IA. Meanwhile, leading edge of cold front extended from
about the NE panhandle to southeast SD.

Diurnal heating has allowed for decent destabilization so far across
the CWA where MLCAPES were 1500-2500 J/kg.

Near term issue to contend with is possible severe storms later this
evening. Short term models continue to show post-frontal convection
developing just west of the CWA within the next few hours before
advancing eastward late this afternoon. By early evening, expect
discrete storm formation over the CWA with quick intensification
along axis of steep low level lapse rates/increasing boundary layer
moisture convergence. With deep layer shear progged over 50kt, the
environment will be quite capable of supporting rotating cells with
large hail the initial severe threat. As the evening progresses,
expect storm mode transition to MCS with wind threat becoming the
primary hazard. And given shear on hand, cannot rule out the
potential for a tornadic storm.

Otherwise, thunder chances are in play Monday into next weekend in
part to several passing upper impulses before the approach of a
strong upper system on Thursday.

Highs:
Mon - upper 70s/low 80s
Tue - mid 70s/low 80s
Wed - mid/upper 70s
Thu - mid/upper 70s
Fri - low 80S
Sat - low 80s
Sun - mid 70s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Main concern remains thunderstorm potential this evening. Storms
could develop in both the KOMA and KLNK anywhere in the 00 to 02Z
timeframe, but guidance suggests the highest chances would be 01
to 04Z, so included TEMPO mention at both sites. Storms could be
strong to severe, with hail, winds over 50 kts, and a possible
tornado, but confidence in a severe storm hitting any TAF site is
low. For KOFK, storms currently in central Nebraska will be the
concern. Guidance suggests they may slide just south, but included
TEMPO group there as well from 02 to 04Z. Storms should exit
shortly after midnight with VFR conditions and northerly winds
near 10 kts thereafter.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DEE
AVIATION...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
315 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-081015-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
315 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening, mainly along
and south of the I-80 corridor. The primary hazards will be large
hail and damaging winds. A few storms may even be accompanied by
a tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight..

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