Severe Thunderstorm Warning 367, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
620 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Key Messages:

 - There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe weather
   this afternoon and evening, mainly from 4 PM-10 PM.
 - Cooler temperatures are expected through the end of the week,
   with the first frost possible Friday night-Saturday morning.

Today and Tonight...

A deepening mid-level cyclone making it's way from North Dakota into
southern Canada brought gusty winds to the forecast area today, as
well as the potential for a few strong to severe storms.
Southwesterly winds remained gusty ahead of a cold front
associated with the system. Wind speeds reached 15 to 25 mph, with
gusts up to 30 to 40 mph at times.

Widely scattered showers and storms bubbled up across eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa. The combination of evaporative cooling
and persistent cloud cover kept temperatures much cooler than
expected, only reaching the upper 60s and low 70s at most locations
by 2 PM.

A more robust line of storms is beginning to develop just to our
west, over south-central Nebraska, ahead of the incoming cool front.
Weak instability has tried to build into the western edge of the
forecast area, but struggled given the pesky showers and cloud
cover. Currently, only 500-1000 J/kg is depicted on mesoanalysis,
where skies managed to clear out a bit more in far northeast
Nebraska. The widespread cloud cover also impeded lapse rates,
limiting them to 6-7 C/km in the low levels and 6.5 C/km in the
mid levels. Deep layer shear, on the other hand, will continue to
surge across the forecast area, potentially reaching up to 40-50
kts over northeast Nebraska this evening. If we can destabilize
enough along the western edge of the CWA, we could potentially
see another round of strong to severe storms late this afternoon
and evening, primarily from 4 PM to 10 PM. Damaging winds will be
the primary hazard, if any strong storms do develop. A bit of
hail up to the size of quarters may be possible as well. Strong
low level shear, and clockwise turning hodographs over far
northeast Nebraska hint at the potential for a tornado or two, for
a very brief period, if any discrete cells can develop.

Lingering showers and storms are expected to exit the forecast area
by around midnight tonight.  When all is said and done, we expect
rainfall amounts to range from around half an inch to an inch.

Wednesday and Beyond...

Fall will finally arrive behind the departing cold front, for the
latter half of the week. Strong northwesterly flow will draw
significantly colder air into the region Wednesday through Saturday.
 High temperatures will shift from reaching the 70s tomorrow to
topping our in the mid 50s by Friday. Overnight lows will drop from
the 50s Wednesday night to the low to mid 30s by Saturday morning,
giving us our first chance at frost for the season.

That first shot of cold air will be fairly short-lived though.
Temperatures are expected to rebound back into the 70s by early next
week.

Dry weather will likely prevail through the majority of the period.
After today the only chance for precipitation looks to be Friday as
a shortwave passes through the region. However, models continue to
disagree on whether or not we will actually get any rain out of this
disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

A line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will move
through the terminal sites within the next 1-3 hours with reduced
visibilities and potentially strong wind gusts from the west. With
the passage of the storms to the east, winds will switch to
southwest or west at generally less than 12 kt. Northwest winds
are forecast to strengthen to 12 kt or greater at KOFK Wednesday
morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Mead

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
309 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-041015-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
309 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

There is a Slight Risk for severe weather which could result in a
few strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern
Nebraska from 4 PM through 10PM. The primary hazards will be
damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph and/or hail up to quarter
size. A brief tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday

Areas of frost could develop across eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa Saturday and Sunday mornings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
716 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 WSW Richland          41.42N 97.28W
10/03/2023  M73 MPH          Platte             NE   Public

            Recorded at personal weather station.

&&

tsn

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
717 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 NNW Columbus          41.49N 97.40W
10/03/2023  M68 MPH          Platte             NE   Public

            Recorded at personal weather station.

&&

tsn

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