Severe Thunderstorm Warning 340, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
618 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Key Messages:

 - A round of strong to severe storms is expected to roll into
   northeast Nebraska this morning with large hail, damaging wind,
   and a tornado being possible.

 - Another round of storms becomes possible around 2 or 3 PM in
   far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Damaging hail, wind, and
   an isolated tornado are possible into the evening.

 - A pleasant weather pattern is set up for the week, staying
   mostly dry with comfy high temperatures.

Today:

As of 3 AM, a cluster of storms is building across the Nebraska
Panhandle and extreme northeast Colorado, with GOES water vapor
imagery displaying the main trough trailing behind it. The best
looking part of the cluster of storms is entering in from northeast
Colorado and is set up to follow along the northern edge of a MUCAPE
gradient pointed at northeast Nebraska. Strong mid/upper level flow
is resulting in a highly sheared environment for these storms, and
should the be able to realize the available energy should be able to
make it to northeast Nebraska around sunrise. This is corroborated
by updated CAM runs, and particularly the HRRR that is depicting the
stronger section of the current storm cluster reaching northeast
Nebraska by 7 to 8 AM. Impressive mid-level lapse rates are depicted
in forecast soundings in northeast Nebraska, while hodographs
continue to depict plenty of low-level curvature and deep shear.
Sounding analogs with the convection that reaches northeast
Nebraska indicate that hail of 2 inches or greater are possible
with the strongest storms that move through, with strong winds and
an isolated tornado also being possible. Most of the activity
through the morning should stay north of a line from Columbus, NE
to Harlan, IA while potential for a tornado is higher as you move
east and storms become more surface based later in the morning.
Weak shower activity seems plausible south of the aforementioned
area as the activity moves through, but will likely be limited to
small pockets light rain or sprinkles.

As for the afternoon hours, a pair of north-south oriented boundaries
will serve as our best chances for convective initiation. Recent
CAM guidance has indicated that far eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa aren't totally out of the woods in terms of severe
threat, with potential for storms to develop along the cold front
following the surface trough to the east of it around 2-3 PM
onward. Damaging hail and wind continue to be the primary concerns
with these storms while a tornado or two can't be ruled out
either. These storms could affect the Omaha Metro around 6 PM and
serves as our best chance to see any rain there. More legitimate
convective initiation along the surface trough ahead of the cold
front continues to wait until it is east of the forecast area.
Overall careful monitoring of the current storms out west are in
order as they are expected to set the stage for the day.

Sunday through Friday:

As for the rest of the forecast period, we're expecting to stay
mainly dry, as the mid/upper pattern stays relatively steady state
with a deep trough over the Pacific Northwest and the current trough
moving into the area slowly meanders east-southeast. Highs will be
comfortable all week with high temperature trends slightly

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

A complex of thunderstorms over central NE as of 11z is expected
to move through northeast NE this morning with KOFK being affected
in the 13-15z timeframe. Those storms are expected to remain to
the north of KOMA and KLNK. Current LIFR conditions at KOFK are
expected to improve with the passage of the storms with winds
becoming gusty from the southwest and then west this afternoon.

At KOMA and KLNK, IR satellite indicates MVFR ceilings developing
in the area, and prevailing MVFR conditions are anticipated in
the next 2-3 hours. Winds will become gusty from the south by late
morning with winds gradually veering to southwest and west this
afternoon. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected by mid to late
afternoon. Thunderstorm chances are currently too low to include
in the forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Mead

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>