Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
554 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Key Messages:

 - A complex of storms will move across southeast Nebraska this
   morning. Marginal risk for severe weather with wind being
   primary threat.

 - Temperatures cool down this weekend with nightly chances for
   thunderstorms.

 - Temperatures warm back up into the upper 80s to mid 90s midweek
   next week, and nightly chances of storms continue every day
   next week.

While the thunderstorm activity from last evening has died down,
we're watching a complex of storms this morning across north-
central Nebraska. This complex will follow the elevated
instability gradient southeastward toward southeast Nebraska this
morning, impacting our area starting around 7-9 AM. As this
system moves in, our environment will be unstable with 2500-3500
J/kg of elevated instability, and 1000-1500 J/kg of DCAPE. This
suggests at least some potential for damaging winds. Hail may be a
lesser threat, but won't rule out quarter-size hail, especially
after 9 AM as temperatures start to warm up. This complex of
storms should be out of our area by noon, leaving behind a lull in
activity through midday.

The good news is temperatures will be cooler today. High
temperatures this afternoon will be in the low-to-mid 80s across
most of our area, with highs around 90 in our southern counties.
Even still, cooler than yesterday in these areas. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will return overnight tonight.

As ridging builds up over the Rockies to our west, we see the
upper-level pattern turn more northwesterly over eastern Nebraska
and western Iowa. This will bring in a fairly active summer
pattern, with nightly chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures through the weekend and Monday will remain fairly
mild, with highs generally in the 80s. The ridge to our west
starts to nudge eastward starting Tuesday into Wednesday, which
will lead to warmer temperatures, particularly on Wednesday when
we could see heat indices back up around 100 to 105.

A more substantial shortwave trough appears likely to affect the
area Wednesday-Thursday. Details are too messy at this time to
determine any severe threat with this system. What this may serve
to do will be to bring temperatures back down later next week.
Nightly chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through at
least Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

A complex of storms is moving into southeast Nebraska this
morning. KOFK and KOMA seem likely to stay VFR and north of the
activity for the mot part, though we may see KOFK get clipped by
the rain shield north of the main line. Confidence is low, so
haven't included in the TAF, but may need to amend. KLNK seems
right in the path of the main line, with strong winds and MVFR/IFR
conditions likely as it moves through KLNK around 14-15Z. Once
the line moves through, we should see conditions improve with VFR
conditions at KLNK. VFR conditions should hold through midday
today at the terminals with winds increasing to 10-15kt out of the
northeast. These winds will back down around 01Z. There may be
another complex of storms that moves through overnight tonight,
impacting the terminals. Have included a Prob30 with possible
timing at the terminals, but this may change as we get more
information and closer to this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
402 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-292315-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
402 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will move across
southeast Nebraska this morning, with the greatest threat being
damaging winds, though quarter-size hail cannot be ruled out.

Another complex of thunderstorms may move through again overnight
tonight. Some storms could be severe with potential for damaging
winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There will be a nightly chance of thunderstorms, some of which
could be strong, through the end of the forecast period.

Heat index values again increase to 100 to 105 along and south of
Interstate 80 Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed.

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