Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
634 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Key Messages:

- Isolated thunderstorms with large hail will be possible in parts
  of northeast NE this evening and the early morning hours of
  Friday. Strong southerly winds are expected over much of the
  area tonight, gusts 40 to 50 mph possible.

 - Some risk of severe storms Friday, mainly in IA. Chances are
   much higher east of our area. Strong northwest winds may gust
   over 50 mph for much of the area in the afternoon and evening.
   Also, some light snow accumulations possible in northeast NE
   Friday afternoon into the evening.

A strong mid level disturbance is located over the western United
States this afternoon. The system had 12 hour height falls in excess
of 100 meters over parts of CA/NV/AZ this morning. That system will
move east toward the western high Plains tonight. Expect that a
closed low with heights around 537 dm at 500 mb will be over
northwest NE by daybreak Friday morning. The center of the low is
likely to reach northeast NE by Friday evening. Snow is likely in
the deformation zone on the north and northwest side of the 500 mb
low, which will track rapidly east through IA Friday evening.
Highest potential for severe storms Friday is east of our area, but
will have to monitor for at least a few isolated severe storms in
our area Friday (highest chances in our local area are across
southwest IA).

Tonight...Strong low pressure center at the surface over the western
high Plains will start to track eastward tonight. Center of the low
could reach near the NE/SD/IA border by 12Z Friday. Strong southerly
winds will occur ahead of the low over much of eastern NE and
southwest IA tonight. A wind advisory was issued earlier for parts
of the area with potential wind gusts 40 to 50 mph.

The airmass in our area will destabilize this afternoon and evening
with MUCAPE values from recent RAP model runs up to about 1500 J/kg.
Isolated strong to severe storms (with potential for mainly hail) may
focus along a low level front in northeast NE to the northeast of
the surface low, but other storms (with lower severe potential) are
possible from eastern KS into southeast NE, northwest KS and
southeast NE. Much of area could be dry after midnight into the
early daylight hours of Friday but will maintain at least some low
POPs for parts of the area.

Friday...This will be a very active day for parts of IA southward to
MO and AR. There does appear to be a window of opportunity across
western IA, some of the convection allowing models (CAMs) show that.
If storms occur in western IA, they will have the potential to
become severe. Look for a big range of high temperatures Friday,
from the lower 40s at the SD border to lower 70s at the MO border.
Will issue a Fire Weather Watch in parts of southeast NE and
southwest IA where Extreme Fire behavior is possible, but not a slam
dunk. RH values could drop to around 25 percent or lower. Wind gusts
could reach 40 mph in the early afternoon and 50 mph late afternoon
into the evening.

Now to the winter weather potential. Some accumulations - under 2
inches - are possible in the northwest part of northeast NE from the
late afternoon into the evening. We may need a winter headline for
that with the snow and potential for reduced visibilities. The
precipitation type will change to all snow showers Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday evening. This period looks dry. Highs should
be mainly in the 50s Saturday, then mostly mid 60s to mid 70s
Sunday. Sunday could be a busy fire weather day, so will keep an eye
on that.

Monday and beyond. We will include some low POPs Monday and Monday
night but it looks much more active Tuesday and Tuesday night. A
strong mid level system (not too much different that the one that
will be in our area in the shorter term) will move through the
region with potential for thunderstorms in the warmer air and
potential for snow once the cold air wraps in from the north and
west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Another busy set of TAFs are out for the 00z period, with strong
winds ongoing across the KLNK and KOMA TAF sites while KOFK is
seeing lull. Early in the TAF period are some lower end storm
chances (30 to 40%) KOFK and KLNK, but are not high enough to
include in the TAF, with the best chances lying north of the KOFK
area. If storms were to form, they'd be quick-hitting and move in
and out in an hour, with some hail possible. Also early in the TAF
period are MVFR ceilings that are currently in northeastern
Kansas, and should spread north in around 3 hours affecting all
sites. Low-level wind shear should develop overnight as well as 50
kt winds develop at FL016 through sunrise, and winds begin turning
northwesterly Friday afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for NEZ015-033-034-043>045-
     050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for NEZ066>068-078-088>093.

IA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for IAZ043-055-069-079-080-
     090-091.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

DISCUSSION...Miller/last
AVIATION...Petersen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
855 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-311600-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
855 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

Thunderstorms with damaging hail are possible in northeast
Nebraska this evening and tonight, through 2 AM CDT. Strong
southerly wind gusts as high as 45 mph are possible over much of
the area this evening and into tonight.

On Friday, severe thunderstorms will be possible across western
Iowa. Chances are higher farther east in central and eastern Iowa,
but we will be closely monitoring western Iowa for an increased
risk.

Northwest winds gusting to over 40 mph are expected to develop
over much of the area Friday afternoon. These winds, in
combination with light snow, could create some travel problems in
northeast Nebraska late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. An
inch or two of snow is possible for areas along and north of a
line from Neligh to Pender.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Thursday

Strong northwest winds are expected Friday night with gusts over
40 mph. Snow showers could affect parts of the area as well,
especially northeast Nebraska.

Another strong storm system could bring active weather,
thunderstorms and snow, to the area Tuesday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected to be needed, but please pass
along any reports of severe weather.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
915 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

NEZ011-310230-
Knox NE-
915 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Knox
County through 930 PM CDT...

At 915 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Page, or 19 miles east of O'neill, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Knox
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4269 9823 4254 9798 4246 9813 4243 9825
      4244 9830 4261 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 225DEG 49KT 4249 9827

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

DeWald