Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
607 AM PST Mon Jan 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Rain continuing through this morning, diminishing north
to south through this afternoon. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms appear on tap for Tuesday with a window for intense
thunderstorm during the early morning hours Tuesday.

Expected impacts include widespread flooding, damaging winds, and
dangerous marine conditions. Please stay current with forecast
updates as there is a direct threat to life and property from these
storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 04:18 AM PST Monday...

Current satellite imagery showing a healthy stream of moisture aimed
at the central CA coast as the atmospheric river is well underway.
As of writing, seeing rainfall rates of 0.5 to 0.75 in/hr per hour
in some areas of Marin, Sonoma, and Santa Cruz counties. Expect
rates within this ballpark to continue through sunrise with precip
gradually tapering off through the morning for the North Bay.
Rainfall will continue into midday and afternoon for the Bay Area
and points south. The story then shifts to the Big Sur coast where
rates are expected to increase with some areas of up to 1.25 in/hr
this morning with moderate precip continuing into the afternoon.
Gusty winds expected to peak before sunrise this morning, gradually
decreasing but remaining breezy into this evening. The main
anomalous plume of moisture will continue to move south and upslope
moisture transport weakens dramatically as the current trough moves
east of the area by sunset today, though scattered showers will
continue before another surface low deepens and approaches the
California coast.

The secondary trough moving in late tonight does not have as strong
of a moisture tap as this morning, though the environment supports a
marginal severe weather threat, particularly during the overnight
hours tonight. Hi-res guidance suggesting a line of thunderstorms
during the early morning hours with a window to support brief
supercells along the coast. With deep layer shear of 50+ kts and a
rather impressive directional wind profile, would not be surprised
to see a few waterspouts, including a brief tornado or two along the
coastline from Santa Cruz southward. Additionally, these
thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall. Though the
initial line of thunderstorms is expected to be the strongest,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday
afternoon before mostly coming to an end Tuesday night.

Drier conditions will finally develop for Wednesday and Thursday for
most of the area. However, models are suggesting that a warm front
may clip the region. That said, think the North Bay would be the
region most likely to see some light rain those days. Any rain would
be light, with most areas seeing less than a quarter inch. However,
North Bay could see between 1 to 2 additional inches with the
coastal mountains seeing up to 3. Another weak system will then move
into the region on Friday. Followed close by another more
significant system for the weekend. At this time, there are still
some model differences, but given the fact that most areas will not
have had sufficient time to dry out, flood watches will likely be
needed again.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 06:00 AM Monday...For the 12Z TAFs. Rain
continues across the area as frontal boundary approaches the
coastline. MVFR conditions will persist through the morning as
well. Rain will continue through the afternoon but will taper off
as the front moves inland, bringing a brief lull through the
afternoon and evening today. Winds have diminished and have
generally shifted to the SW. Winds will shift back to SE and
become breezy again ahead of the next round of rain coming in
overnight. This next round of rain will arrive after midnight
tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR with rain continuing into the morning.
Winds have diminished and shifted southwesterly, which will
persist through the afternoon. Shower activity will also continue
through the afternoon. Winds will shift back to SE this evening
ahead of next system, arriving tonight. Rain arriving again after
08z (12 am PST) Tuesday. Low level wind shear redeveloping Monday
night and early Tuesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay...VFR-MVFR. Gusty winds persist through the morning but
have diminished slightly and shifted SW. SW winds will continue to
decrease through the afternoon. Rain will continue through the
afternoon as well and could be heavy at times. Brief lull this
afternoon/evening, but rain and strong southeasterly winds
returning late Monday night and Tuesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...As of 4:05 PM PST Sunday...Expect significant
hydrologic impacts over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Current Flood Warnings in effect...
Guadalupe River above the Almaden Expressway in San Jose
The Carmel River at Robles Del Rio

RVS is effect:
Napa at Napa
Napa at Saint Helena

Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for the Monterey County burn
scars, specifically the Dolan, Colorado, and River burn scars.

Flood Watch for mainstem river flooding remains in effect for
the...
Russian River at Guerneville
Pajaro River at Chittenden
Salinas River at Spreckles

Areal Flood Watch remains in effect for all other area rivers and
streams and creeks, including but not limited too.
In North Bay...
Russian River at Geyserville
Mark West Creek near Mirabel Heights
Maacama Creek near Kellogg
Laguna de Santa Rosa at Stony Point Road near Cotati

In East Bay...
Alameda Creek near Niles
Alameda Creek above Div Dam near Sunol
Arroyo de la Laguna at Verona

In South Bay...
Guadalupe River above Hwy 101 at San Jose
Coyote Creek above Hwy 237 at Milpitas
Coyote Creek at Edenvale
Pacheco Creek near Dunneville

In the Santa Cruz Mountains...
San Lorenzo River at Big Trees

In Monterey County...
Salinas River near Bradley
Big Sur River at Big Sur
Arroyo Seco near Soledad
San Lorenzo Creek below Bitterwater Creek near King City
San Antonio River near Lockwood

In San Benito County...
San Benito River at Highway 156 near Hollister
Tres Pinos Creek near Tres Pinos

&&

.MARINE...as of 04:18 AM PST Monday...Wind gusts of 40 to 50 knots
being observed currently from coastal buoys from Point Arena down
to Monterey Bay. These gales and  storm force winds continue
across the coastal waters and bays  through the early morning.
Rain, which will be heavy at times, moving through the waters into
the morning. Rain will continue  over the southern waters today
with scattered showers northern  coastal waters and over the bays.
More rain returning along with  gusty winds tonight and Tuesday.
More rain likely late in the week over the northern coastal
waters.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...Flood Watch...CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512>518-528>530
             High Wind Warning...CAZ006-508>510-512>515-529
             High Wind Warning...CAZ502>506
             High Wind Warning...CAZ516>518-528-530
             Flash Flood Watch...CAZ517-528-530
             SRW...SF Bay until 9 AM
             SRW...Mry Bay until 9 AM
             SRW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 9 AM
             SRW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 AM
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 AM
             GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 AM
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 9 AM
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 9 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: Behringer
AVIATION: McCorkle
MARINE: McCorkle

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
744 AM PST MON JAN 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE CORRALITOS        37.02N 121.78W
01/09/2023                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE RESTING ON POWER LINES, ANOTHER OWN IN
            ROADWAY.

&&

AC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
745 AM PST MON JAN 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 AM     FLOOD            3 WSW FREEDOM           36.92N 121.83W
01/09/2023                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   PUBLIC

            ROADWAY FLOODING.

&&

AC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
750 AM PST MON JAN 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW APTOS HILLS-LARKI 36.95N 121.86W
01/09/2023                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BLOCKING EASTBOUND LANE OF TRAFFIC.

&&

AC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
756 AM PST MON JAN 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 AM     FLOOD            1 SSW SALINAS           36.67N 121.64W
01/09/2023                   MONTEREY           CA   PUBLIC

            MUD/DIRT/ROCK IN ROADWAY.

&&

AC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
813 AM PST MON JAN 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     FLOOD            1 NNE FORESTVILLE       38.50N 122.88W
01/09/2023                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADWAY FLOODING.

&&

AC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
821 AM PST MON JAN 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     FLOOD            3 W SAN FRANCISCO       37.77N 122.48W
01/09/2023                   SAN FRANCISCO      CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADWAY FLOODING.

&&