Small Craft Advisory 182, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1128 PM PDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 AM PDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Night and morning clouds clearing to the coast each afternoon will
continue through the weekend. Temperatures will warm slightly
today, but further warming and drying will develop early next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM PDT Sat Aug 26 2023

00z OAK sounding shows that the marine layer has compressed
slightly compared to the previous 2 launches. With this, expecting
the coast to stay socked in with low clouds overnight but may not
make it as far inland compared to last night. An additional
result is that inland spots are running drier compared to 24 hours
ago (10-15% drier RH). No changes made to the forecast except for
adjustments the winds and wave heights over the waters for next
week (where it looks to get fairly breezy). Still looking on track
for warming into midweek and further compression of the marine
layer as high pressure aloft builds into CA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1252 PM PDT Sat Aug 26 2023

The upper level low that sits off the coast continues to slowly move
northward, allowing the transition to a ridging pattern influenced
weather. Therefore, expect tomorrow's max temperatures to see warmer
temperatures by 2-6 degrees higher compared to today. Interior areas
will reach up to mid 80s to mid 90s, while the coastal areas will
range from low 70s to mid 80s. As the 500mb heights have increased,
the marine layer has compressed slightly, sitting between 1600-1900
feet, which facilitated some lower cloud deck and fog this morning. As
the high pressure continues to slowly move over our region tomorrow,
expect the marine layer to continue to compress bringing a higher
chance for low clouds as well as lower visibilities from fog late
tonight into tomorrow morning, especially for Monterey Bay and North
Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1124 AM PDT Sat Aug 26 2023

The upper level pattern through mid week will feature expanding high
pressure from the Great Plains into SoCal with low pressure lifting
from the northeast Pacific towards the International Border states.
By late week the high will retreat eastward as troughing redevelops
along the West Coast. A warming trend will accompany the incoming
high pressure ridge with rising thicknesses and inland temperatures
in the upper 80s to around 100. This should bring the HeatRisk into
the moderate category. The event should be rather short lived
however, with Tuesday and Wednesday being the warmest days. Also
expect some coastal/bayside warming with a compressed or dissipated
marine layer. Highs should reach the 70s to perhaps around 80 in
these areas. A cooling trend will ensure for late week into the
weekend as the troughing pattern takes hold.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM PDT Sat Aug 26 2023

IFR CIGs are are struggling to build around portions of the North
Bay, Monterey Bay, and the immediate coast. Lower clouds will be
slow to enter the SF Bay, but CIGs will not be consistent until the
late night. Cloud cover thins in the late morning/early afternoon
for Sunday with light winds becoming moderate that afternoon. Cloud
cover will be slower to build into most areas Friday night, aside
from around the Monterey Bay which will begin to fill into the
evening.

Vicinity of SFO...Inconsistent IFR CIGs become prevailing into the
late night as winds reduce. Winds stay moderate through most of the
night and through the morning. VFR returns in the mid morning with
westerly winds becoming gusty for the afternoon. These winds reduce
into Sunday night but will stay breezy until the late night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR CIGs build into the night with moments
of LIFR and reduced visibility through the morning. VFR returns
Sunday afternoon with moderate westerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 816 PM PDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Northwest winds will continue to be breezy into Sunday with
coastal jets setting up along favored portions of the coastline
in the afternoon, bringing localized stronger gusts. Strong
breezes develop early next week with gale force gusts possible
across much of the coastal waters through midweek. These strong
winds and subsequent steep wind waves will create hazardous seas.
A mix of moderate period (13-15 seconds) southerly swell and
shorter period, light northerly swell continues through the middle
of the work week next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ530.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for
     PZZ535.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ540-545-560-
     570-575.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ565.

&&

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...McCorkle

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea